Democratic Primaries

Cal Carpenter

(4,959 posts)

11. They explain their methodology here:

Wed Feb 26, 2020, 02:39 PM

Feb 2020

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-makes-our-new-2020-democratic-primary-polling-averages-different/

I copy/pasted a few bullet points that relate to your comment:

Differentiator 1: We adjust state polls based on trends in national polls

Differentiator 2: We adjust for house effects. “House effects” are when certain pollsters consistently show better results for certain candidates.

Differentiator 3: Our average adjusts more quickly after major events

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I will add this, in my own view the main thing these poll aggregators want is to be right. So while their shit is always flawed, they are adjusting their models constantly because their credibility depends on people thinking they were right in their predictions, or close to it..

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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538: 'What Our Forecast Says About Every Super Tuesday State' [View all] left-of-center2012 Feb 2020 OP

This message was self-deleted by its author BlueTillIDie Feb 2020 #1

Oh no! Socialism! el_bryanto Feb 2020 #2

The only recent poll out of VA is 22/22 Bloomberg/Sanders TwilightZone Feb 2020 #3

you mean sanders/bloomberg? eom counting Feb 2020 #9

Yes, thanks. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #18

Yes, VA was the surprise spread there. JudyM Feb 2020 #22

I hope 538 is wrong Kitchari Feb 2020 #4

I'm for Liz, but if not her, Go Bernie Go! Magoo48 Feb 2020 #19

Awesome! harun Feb 2020 #5

Klobuchar is +6 on Sanders in both recent polls. 538 has it as a toss-up. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #6

They explain their methodology here: Cal Carpenter Feb 2020 #11

"We adjust state polls based on trends in national polls" TwilightZone Feb 2020 #15

15%. That's what it is all about Cal Carpenter Feb 2020 #7

Bookmarking. TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #8

Utah 87, now I know this is a crock of ****) Butterflylady Feb 2020 #10

Bernie won Utah over Hillary in 2016. Mariana Feb 2020 #12

Based on what? Nt USALiberal Feb 2020 #14

Sanders has a big lead there in the only recent poll. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #16

I believe it RhodeIslandOne Feb 2020 #27

a large loss by Sanders in SC may have some effect on this, although so many have already voted Celerity Feb 2020 #13

One poll has him at 13%. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #17

not sure about it AlexSFCA Feb 2020 #20

Similarly, if Biden underperforms in SC, that could affect these results too (n/t) thesquanderer Feb 2020 #24

this is true, but that PPP poll now looks like less of an outlier, and Clyburn is a boss, so his Celerity Feb 2020 #25

It does not matter how many states a candidate wins on ST or at any other time localroger Feb 2020 #21

Democrats like liberalism IronLionZion Feb 2020 #23

We. Are. So. Fucked. nt Codeine Feb 2020 #26

Don't worry RhodeIslandOne Feb 2020 #28

If Sanders takes California and Texas, it may be game over. Sympthsical Feb 2020 #29