Bernie dropping like a rock on 538's overall primary forecast [View all]

[Celerity]

1591 pledged delegates is a big key number

1591 or less for a total and Bernie is under 40%, which is a big psychological barrier if there is no one at 1990 and thus a first ballot winner.

If he rolls into the convention with only, say 39% of the delegates, and Biden is at say 35% (I am NOT saying these will be the totals at all) of the delegates, he will have a FAR harder time making a case than if he was at say, 45% and Biden at 29% At that point, a 45%-29% breakdown in Sanders' favour, it would be basically impossible to deny him the nomination, as the party would tear itself apart and we would lose to Trump even more likely than nominating Sanders would do.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/