538: Biden has a 97% chance of winning South Carolina

[AGeddy]

3. I agree. I think a big SC win for Biden causes Bloomberg's numbers to dive everywhere on Tuesday

So 538's current numbers for Bloomberg are pretty inflated, I think.


I don't see a rationale for Klobuchar or Buttigieg for continuing after Tuesday. Pete won't finish higher than 3rd on any state on Tuesday, and Klobuchar will be in 5th or 6th in every state but Minnesota. Both of them will have early speeches Tuesday night, but will be out of the race on Wednesday morning.


I think Warren does just well enough in CA to get a nice chunk of delegates there, but other than MA she will struggle to get any delegates on Tuesday. But I think she stays in until at least March 17th.


It will really be a two-person race after Tuesday, with Bloomberg hanging around so he can spend money without limits. But Bloomberg won't attack Biden at all - he will be the stalking horse spending money that indirectly helps Biden by attacking Bernie and Trump.


The March 10 and March 17 states are more favorable for Biden too.