Prediction: Bloomberg's polling will collapse over the next 72 hours

[karynnj]

15. The Bloomberg and Steyer campaigns might show that money spent on ads is not linearly related

to votes gained. Clearly, some advertising is helpful and there are examples where lack of money forced candidates to go dark in states where they were gaining and that trend ended. However, the idea that you need to have a "competitive" amount of ads, if defined as similar to the other candidates, will be rejected.

In South Carolina, Biden spoke of being outspent by 40 to 1 - I don't know what the claim was based on - was it Steyer's spending or the entire opposition's spending. In past elections, it has not always been the best funded person who won. In 2004, in the run up to the actual votes, Dean had FAR more money than anyone and his team far outspent everyone in Iowa and NH - and he lost both to Kerry, who by November 2003 had so little money and was getting few contributions that he mortgaged his half of his and Teresa's Boston home to loan his campaign enough money to continue competing in Iowa, where he knew he was gaining support. Even with that loan, he had far less money to spend in Iowa and from many accounts, his team was very frugal in spending what they had.

I live in Vermont. Obviously not a delegate state and not hospitable to Bloomberg (in my estimation - he is not "Vermonty" in the least. It is entirely possible that Sanders again gets all our delegates, but also possible that Warren or one of the others is able to get above the 15% and take some delegates. Yet, my husband and I have gotten at least 5 or 6 glossy mailings from Bloomberg. ( That he is not concerned with cost shows that his mailing list do not bother to combine obvious couples with the same address.) In addition, on medians or public land in Burlington - Sanders' home town - there are Bloomberg 2020 signs -- not so much at people's homes. If Bloomberg has people doing this much in Vermont -- I can only imagine how excessive it isin states he reasonably thought he could win!

Listening to MSNBC speaking of how Biden will not have enough time to use the money he gained due to his big win to run ads on SuperTuesday and how this is unlucky, I am struck by their acceptance that people listen to campaign ads over news and over their own long familiarity with the former VP. ( I think their point might have been truer for someone - Buttigieg or Klobuchar for instance - who are less known. Then ads could have helped define the person helping those who might for the first time seriously consider the person. )