Biden +20 in VA, +9 in NC, +2 in TX & down only 7 in CA according to latest polls.

[Celerity]

49. Let us all hope his voters overall feel the same. They are far less Democrtic party-friendly, far

more radical than his 2016 voting cohort was. I fear we may see an even larger defection rate (either to Trump, 3rd party, or no vote) than the 30% we saw in 2008 from Clinton Primary voters

for Clinton 2008 primary voters, around 24 or 25% voted for McCain, around 5% did not vote

https://isps.yale.edu/research/data/d130

https://sites.duke.edu/hillygus/files/2014/06/hendersonhillygustompsonPOQ.pdf



https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/08/24/did-enough-bernie-sanders-supporters-vote-for-trump-to-cost-clinton-the-election/

Another useful comparison is to 2008, when the question was whether Clinton supporters would vote for Barack Obama or John McCain (R-Ariz.) Based on data from the 2008 Cooperative Campaign Analysis Project, a YouGov survey that also interviewed respondents multiple times during the campaign, 24 percent of people who supported Clinton in the primary as of March 2008 then reported voting for McCain in the general election.

An analysis of a different 2008 survey by the political scientists Michael Henderson, Sunshine Hillygus and Trevor Thompson produced a similar estimate: 25 percent. (Unsurprisingly, Clinton voters who supported McCain were more likely to have negative views of African Americans, relative to those who supported Obama.)

Thus, the 6 percent or 12 percent of Sanders supporters who may have supported Trump does not look especially large in comparison with these other examples.

snip


I also dealt with Operation Chaos here

https://www.democraticunderground.com/128775007#post166

which was very tiny in both number and impact in 2008. It has been vastly overstated here dozens of times just that I have seen since mid 2018, when I joined DU.

.


huge thread on it all here, with some other massive and detailed posts by me

https://www.democraticunderground.com/128775007