This race needs to go on. At least for awhile longer [View all]

[Tom Rinaldo]

And I'm not saying that just because nowhere near a majority of delegates has been won by anyone yet, or because the clear majority of states have not yet had a chance to weigh in. I acknowledge that Joe Biden is now the clear front runner for the nomination, and while he is nowhere near to having it wrapped up yet he now is on a path to get there. He is on a path to win not just because he performed so well in elections last night, he is on a path to win because so many undecided voters broke for Biden in the 48 hours prior to Super Tuesday.

It's palpable. Democrats want to nominate a winner who can kick Trump out of the White House. Democrats want to rally around someone who it appears to be the leader who can do so. We want to get on with it, we want to unite and turn our attention to beating Trump. And now it seems that Democrats are mostly willing to unite behind Joe Biden to do just that. That is the main reason why there was such a strong sudden surge to Biden on Super Tuesday. There is nothing wrong with that type of reasoning. Joe Biden is a seasoned and popular figure within the Democratic Party and right now it looks like he is poised to lead our fight against Donald Trump.

But all of the above involves an element of circular thinking. It isn't that Joe Biden's positions on issues are necessarily more popular than are Bernie Sander's. Time and time again exit polls show that Democratic Party primary and caucus voters favor Medicare for All, they want an aggressive approach to fighting climate change, they view income inequality as a serious threat to our mutual prosperity etc. Biden's positions on all of these matters are clearly acceptable to Democratic voters, but not necessarily preferred. Biden is surging because of his perceived electability, and now that he is actually winning contests the odds favor him continuing to do, so as success begets success. Voters want clarity on who can best defeat Trump and the last minute indicators heading into last night were pointing toward Biden, so he reaped the benefit.

But there is a reason why Joe Biden did not do well in Iowa and New Hampshire, and why he under performed in Nevada, and not all of that was due to demographics. For a considerable period of time after he announced Joe Biden was sailing along at the top of national polling for the Democratic nomination, including doing well in the early contests. All of the top finishers in the overwhelmingly white states were white, and Biden finished behind several of them, and that's not because Biden didn't sufficiently introduce himself to voters. No one has a higher national profile with Democratic voters than the former two time Democratic Vice President. Biden faltered because confidence in his ability to win faltered, and that was because his campaign prior to the last few weeks fell short of being impressive. It is true he lacked money, but why did he lack money? The question is why were at least three other candidates raising more money than was Barack Obama's Vice President? The answer is that Joe Biden was under performing on the stump. Even many insiders sympathetic to Biden thought his early debate performances were shaky, and that his campaign events were frequently underwhelming. His campaign wasn't underfunded because there weren't potential donors available to write him checks. It was underfunded because those donors weren't confident Biden still had what it takes to win.

After his strong launch the Biden campaign really has only had a few good weeks, fortunately for him they were the
most recent ones. Biden picked a great time to hit his stride, now he needs to maintain it without stumbling. My guess is that he will, but until he can demonstrate that, this race isn't over, nor should it be. Up to now we have only had Democratic debates with a host of candidates crowding the stage. In the fall it will be one Democrat against Donald Trump, for ninety minutes of more. Unfortunately we already know that Trump will be attempting to portray Joe Biden as "past his prime", and that is putting it politely. It's crap and we all know it. Our "Uncle Joe" has made some of his semi quasi trademark "gaffes" for decades, it's nothing new and it in no way reflects on his high octane ability. But Biden's campaign did lack "spark" for much of the contest until recently. Personally, I think Biden now has kicked it into high gear, and if he can stay there he will most likely be our nominee. An essentially one on one competition with Bernie Sanders for at least a few weeks more, can demonstrate if that is true.