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Congratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: Who will NOT support Bernie if he is the Democratic nominee? [View all]Gothmog
(144,876 posts)232. Nate Silver- Sanders Can Win, But He Isn't Polling Like A Favorite
Nate thinks that it is possible for sander to win the nomination but this is not likely. sanders is not going to be the nominee of the party. sanders thinks that getting 30% of the primary vote is sufficient which means taking the fight to the contested convention. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-can-win-but-he-isnt-polling-like-a-favorite/
Historically, though, candidates who are polling at only about 20 percent nationally despite the near-universal name recognition that Sanders enjoys dont have a great track record. From our research on the history of past primary polls, I found 15 candidates from past nomination processes who, like Sanders, (i) polled at an average of between 15 percent and 25 percent4 in national polls in the first six months of the year before the Iowa caucuses5 and (ii) who had high or very high name recognition.6.....
Achieving a delegate majority could be hard for Sanders
You could also argue that the three winning candidates from the list Barack Obama and John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012 arent good comparisons for Sanders, especially from a The Party Decides standpoint where preferences among party insiders and activists are leading indicators of voter preferences. Romney, for instance, had the backing of the GOP party establishment as a potential consensus choice, whereas Sanders largely lacks it from Democrats. Obama was a rising star, rather than someone left over from a previous cycle, and gained a lot of momentum among party elites as the 2008 cycle wore on, even if they also liked Clinton. McCain, who ran against the party establishment in 2000 but was someone the party could live with in 2008, is in some ways the most favorable comparison for Sanders.
In many respects, however, Sanders is more similar to Jesse Jackson in 1984 and 1988, George Wallace in 1972 and 1976 or Ron Paul in 2012, candidates who represented important constituencies within their respective parties but who didnt have an obvious way to unite the rest of the party behind them or to win a delegate majority.
At times, Sanderss strategists actually seem to be leaning into the strategy of being a factional candidate. The Sanders campaign may have all kinds of reasons to feel aggrieved by how the party establishment has treated it, especially when it reads articles like the one in The New York Times that suggest the establishment is out to get it again! Nonetheless, the campaign hasnt sought to mend fences when conflicts have arisen this year. Instead, Sanders aides told The Atlantics Edward-Isaac Dovere that they think they can win the nomination with as little as a 30 percent plurality of delegates. Thats a risky strategy since it would necessarily entail a contested convention, where party insiders would play an outsized role. Nor would Sanders, a 77-year-old white man, reflect the various constituencies of the Democratic Party (and the demographics of the delegates themselves) as well as someone like Harris might.
Achieving a delegate majority could be hard for Sanders
You could also argue that the three winning candidates from the list Barack Obama and John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012 arent good comparisons for Sanders, especially from a The Party Decides standpoint where preferences among party insiders and activists are leading indicators of voter preferences. Romney, for instance, had the backing of the GOP party establishment as a potential consensus choice, whereas Sanders largely lacks it from Democrats. Obama was a rising star, rather than someone left over from a previous cycle, and gained a lot of momentum among party elites as the 2008 cycle wore on, even if they also liked Clinton. McCain, who ran against the party establishment in 2000 but was someone the party could live with in 2008, is in some ways the most favorable comparison for Sanders.
In many respects, however, Sanders is more similar to Jesse Jackson in 1984 and 1988, George Wallace in 1972 and 1976 or Ron Paul in 2012, candidates who represented important constituencies within their respective parties but who didnt have an obvious way to unite the rest of the party behind them or to win a delegate majority.
At times, Sanderss strategists actually seem to be leaning into the strategy of being a factional candidate. The Sanders campaign may have all kinds of reasons to feel aggrieved by how the party establishment has treated it, especially when it reads articles like the one in The New York Times that suggest the establishment is out to get it again! Nonetheless, the campaign hasnt sought to mend fences when conflicts have arisen this year. Instead, Sanders aides told The Atlantics Edward-Isaac Dovere that they think they can win the nomination with as little as a 30 percent plurality of delegates. Thats a risky strategy since it would necessarily entail a contested convention, where party insiders would play an outsized role. Nor would Sanders, a 77-year-old white man, reflect the various constituencies of the Democratic Party (and the demographics of the delegates themselves) as well as someone like Harris might.
sanders will not be the nominee if sanders only gets 30% of the primary vote. There are too many real democrats who have long memories and who will not forgive or forget. If this gets to a floor fight, the delegates for the other candidates will not support sanders and the super delegates will get to break any deadlocks after the first ballot.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
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And if he decided NOT to run, obviously the math changes, too. Most likely his relatively huge....
George II
Apr 2019
#160
We have so many great candidates I cannot support Bernie but will if he is the nominee
katmondoo
Apr 2019
#2
Have we forgotten already that Trump is far, FAR more radical than Bernie has ever been?
Kentonio
Apr 2019
#223
Absolutely. However the odds are clearly greater than "zero" that Sanders will be the nominee n/t
Tom Rinaldo
Apr 2019
#114
they didn't post the link because it is from the Trotskyite Democrat-hating World Socialist Web
Celerity
Apr 2019
#204
Ditto - but I hope just once more in my life I can vote FOR a candidate not AGAINST someone else.
Runningdawg
Apr 2019
#87
Democrats depend of African American voters and sanders is not popular with this base
Gothmog
Apr 2019
#176
i will. i just hope i don't have to. every warren policy comes from same place. Defeat corruption
Kurt V.
Apr 2019
#13
Warren is so much better on policy and the pathways to get legislation passed.
octoberlib
Apr 2019
#66
We don't need to be in the mud, just not give the swing voters an excuse to re-elect him...
louis c
Apr 2019
#62
I don't reject your argument completely. The election has to be a numbers game.
Kentonio
Apr 2019
#65
Just pull the lever next to the candidates with the (D) after their names! nt
DirtEdonE
Apr 2019
#17
I have experienced holding my nose and voting democrat. In the 2016 general election.
Snotcicles
Apr 2019
#193
i wondered that as well.. seeing it wasnt the 'other side' that voted for trump...
samnsara
Apr 2019
#32
i dont see him winning the dem nom at all..BUT..IF he managed to then he wil get my vote..
samnsara
Apr 2019
#31
Hillary didn't need superdelegates to beat Bernie, she won the nomination by
comradebillyboy
Apr 2019
#39
Many of the news channels were reading out totals that included superdelegates from the start
Kentonio
Apr 2019
#55
They are not eliminated. There will be two votes instead of one. It is my opinion
Demsrule86
Apr 2019
#45
Nobody here is bashing Bernie. But the GOP will certainly have an easy time of it.
NurseJackie
Apr 2019
#84
we don't have a luxury to not support our nominee in 2020, unless we were stupid and learned nothing
beachbum bob
Apr 2019
#40
I agree about the money. I have given money to three candidates in the primary.
redstatebluegirl
Apr 2019
#166
30% of the vote won't get anyone enough delegates to win on the first ballot.....
George II
Apr 2019
#185
Definitely, the sheer quantity of good candidates opens a window for him
Pope George Ringo II
Apr 2019
#61
I'd advice you to delete that post before it's reported on. It's against the rules of the site.
Kentonio
Apr 2019
#57
It's 10 months to the first primaries. I'm interested in what happens during that time.
Demit
Apr 2019
#51
Jeb Bush and John Kasich were also the frontrunners during this time period in 2015.
octoberlib
Apr 2019
#60
I don't think it's accurate to compare those two situations ... neither Kasich nor Bush had the
mr_lebowski
Apr 2019
#79
Doesn't matter if he's the early favorite because he isn't getting the nomination
Blue_Tires
Apr 2019
#71
There will be PLENTY of American voters who will NOT support Bernie...enough to give Trump the win.
NurseJackie
Apr 2019
#82
If people are really wavering about whether they will vote dem or sit it out...
Politicub
Apr 2019
#111
I always vote for the Democratic nominee. Sometimes with less enthusiasm than at other
Autumn
Apr 2019
#106
How could we NOT? I can't bear the unthinkable--of Trump getting a second term.
hlthe2b
Apr 2019
#112
Since we're doing what ifs. What if Bernie wins the Democratic nomination, then declines it ...
LuvLoogie
Apr 2019
#124
The primaries (and the god awful caucuses) are a political eternity from toay.
themaguffin
Apr 2019
#128
If Sanders is the nominee, he'll get my vote. I wonder if Biden is the nominee if David Sirota,
still_one
Apr 2019
#133
Bloomberg just had a segment on the "Bernie or Bust" faction. Sahil Kapur reported the statistics
still_one
Apr 2019
#144
All of those last three voted for Jill Stein and proudly proclaimed it. So how were they rewarded?
George II
Apr 2019
#170
Bernie looks like Trump's favorite. Trump will yell "socialist," "communist" and "wreck the best
Doodley
Apr 2019
#179
Yes, but it's a long time before nominee clear. I think Democrats want a winner in General Election.
Hoyt
Apr 2019
#182
Not sure how he's the frontrunner. Outside of Emerson, which appears to be an outlier...
TwilightZone
Apr 2019
#202
IF he's our nominee -- which I doubt -- I'll vote for him, but it will be the most reluctant vote
highplainsdem
Apr 2019
#209
So this 26% have no problem voting for a racist, sexist, and bigot. Definition of deplorable
still_one
Apr 2019
#220
The problem won't be supporters of the other Democratic candidates, it will be most likely some of
still_one
Apr 2019
#216
Wow, As far as I was aware it was about 20%, and that was discouraging enough
still_one
Apr 2019
#230