Trump failure to consolidate Republican vote hints at 'ceiling' for general election - Super Tuesday - Decision 2024 MSNBC

[markodochartaigh]

3. I think that all those polls

which show Trump winning or tied need to be viewed with the caveat that what we are seeing is Trump's ceiling, and President Biden's floor.

Even if Satan himself campaigned for Trump at every rally, Trump would not lose more than 5% of those who say that they will vote for him, nor would he gain 5% of those who say that they won't vote for him. It's an unmovable number, but it is the maximum that he will get. It's horrifying that almost 45% of any group would support authoritarian rule, ever so much the more so when that group is likely voters, but I think that we are stronger facing the facts.

President Biden's numbers are the 45% or so of voters who are committed to him because they appreciate his very strong economic record, or his solid stand against Republican authoritarian takeover, or just because they are Democratic voters. But President Biden has access to at least 10% of likely voters who will vote based upon reasons to which President Biden can appeal.

I think that the real issue is to appeal to the almost one third of voters who usually can't be bothered to vote. Successful messaging here could raise President Biden's floor seemingly out of nowhere. And I think that this is something that us hoi-polloi could help with.