The U.S. is approaching a newly dangerous phase of its war against Iran. The administration is signaling that it will likely soon commence ground operations in Iran that will yet stop short of a full-scale invasion…talking variously about degrading Iranian missile, drone and nuclear capacities. But if you look closely at words and especially actions the real aim appears to be to force Iran to let the U.S. out of the war with something it can call a win. “Say we won and stop fucking with the Strait and we’re all set,” the administration is basically saying. The problem is that if this scenario is basically accurate the U.S. is escalating with nothing it can call a “win” that isn’t 100% at the discretion of Iran, which now seems even more under the control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps than before the war, to offer. So what if the U.S. does a limited ground operation and Iran says, Nope, we’re still not giving you your win. What then? Full-scale invasion? As I’ve written, military planners and heads of state who are smart really want goals they can at least realistically try to achieve entirely on their own terms. So we want this piece of territory. Or we want to break this specific thing. In that case, you don’t need the other side to agree to anything. You can achieve your goals by force.

Eventually, you’ll want to make peace. But you can leave that to the other guys to worry about. You have what you want. But if your goal is entirely at the other guy’s discretion, you’ve got a big problem. And that really seems like what the U.S. is getting into now. Of course, you need to have thought all of this through in advance. And this is very much the result of getting into this conflict with no clear idea of what we were trying to accomplish. Or perhaps we went into this with the really foolish or extremely high-risk assumption that the enemy state would shatter quickly. That clearly hasn’t happened and now seems highly unlikely, especially since the U.S. has made it clear it wants out.

You evaluate a war not by how much each side blows up but by who emerges stronger, either in relative or absolute terms, when the war ends. Who achieved what? If Iran emerges from this conflict with some kind of effective control of the Strait of Hormuz, that will be a tremendous strategic victory. In fact, even surviving the full force of U.S. aerial bombardment for a month is a big deterrent accomplishment. Right now Iran holds the initiative in the whole conflict. And the president is escalating but without any goal or off-ramp that isn’t under Iran’s control to give or deny. Sometimes you simply have to admit you got it wrong and try to redefine goals that are workable. But the president appears to be on the brink of a severe escalation, banking on the hope that blowing up more things will take the initiative back from Iran when that seems highly unlikely.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/lacking-any-strategy-trump-prepares-to-escalate

Concern is justifiably growing that a cornered Donald Trump will send US ground troops into combat on Iranian soil to avoid being personally and politically humiliated in a war he started, mismanaged and cannot end. Yet such a self-serving escalation, even if ostensibly limited in duration and scope, could itself prove catastrophic for him and the American people. Think what happened in previous US military interventions. In sum, he’s caught in a modern-day catch-22. Pick your own metaphor for dumb. Trump’s stumped, hoist by his own petard, stuck between a rock and a hard place, and up the creek without a paddle. The creek in question is, of course, the strait of Hormuz.

Firmly ensconced in his weird parallel universe, Trump insists the war is all but won, Iran is suing for peace and talks are making good progress. In the real world, Iran is still fighting on all fronts, Israel is still bombing, the strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, and the Iran-allied Houthi militia in Yemen has joined the war, attacking Israel and potentially blocking Red Sea trade routes. The US and Iran have each issued maximalist demands, but there is no sign of actual negotiations. They are even further apart than they were before Trump, egged on by Benjamin Netanyahu, abandoned diplomacy last month. Sometime soon, Trump will be forced to confront the huge gap between what he wants and what’s on offer. At that point he could turn to the troop buildup in the Gulf and order ground attacks.

…Trump is increasingly isolated and out on a limb. His wealthy Arab business cronies no longer trust him. US bases on their territory now resemble a liability, not a defence. When he demanded Nato’s help, Europe said: we’ll let you know. Likewise, Iran’s ethnic Kurds are less than keen to die for a muppet. Support for the war among the US public and the Maga right, always weak, is a fast-vanishing mirage. Having egged him on, Netanyahu refuses to bail him out – or to stop bombing everyone in sight. Silly-billy Trump! He believed Israel’s assurance of quick victory. As for Iran, its surviving leadership, dominated by ultras, reckons it’s winning. Its hard line gets harder by the day.

Imagine being one of the thousands of US marines and paratroopers now deploying to the Gulf. With a commander-in-chief like Trump, who needs enemies? Except plenty more lie in wait. Iran’s armed forces number 610,000 active-duty personnel, with reserves of 350,000. The regime may no longer be able to fight in the air or at sea. But on land, treading familiar terrain and ultimately willing, perhaps, to sacrifice “human waves” of troops, as in the 1980’s Iran-Iraq war, it remains a formidable foe. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps says it’s ready to carpet-bomb its own territory if invaded.

…What to say or think at this dread juncture? This illegal war should never have been launched. Trump acted foolishly and opportunistically. Netanyahu, too, is greatly to blame. The threat was not “imminent”. And the war’s most persuasive justification – a promise to free Iranians from tyranny – has been abandoned. Negotiations, unconditional on both sides, are the only sane way out. Trump must swallow his pride, admit his error, eat humble pie. Yet as all the world knows, the very idea that this most ignorant, reckless and narcissistic of US leaders might actually do so is utterly ridiculous.

The second Trump presidency was always going to end in disaster. Now it’s happening.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/mar/29/trump-boots-ground-iran-war-middle-east?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

A Secret Service agent shot and wounded himself in the leg while guarding former first lady Jill Biden at Philadelphia International Airport on Friday, according to the agency and a report.

The on-duty agent’s gun went off around 8:30 a.m. while helping escort former President Joe Biden’s wife at the busy travel hub, sources told KYW Newsradio.

The agent suffered a non-life-threatening injury following the “negligent discharge” that took place while he was handling his service weapon, said Secret Service spokesperson Nate Herring.

“There was no impact to the protectee’s movement, and they were not present at the time of the incident,” Herring said.

There were no other reported injuries, and the agent is at a hospital in stable condition.

https://nypost.com/2026/03/27/us-news/secret-service-agents-shoots-himself-while-escorting-jill-biden-at-philadelphia-airport/

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — Iran appears to be setting itself up as the gatekeeper for the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important artery for oil shipments. The move could cement Tehran’s de facto chokehold over the crucial waterway and formalize its ability to keep its own oil flowing to China. Iranian communications to the United Nations maritime authority and the experience of ships transiting the strait suggest the creation of something akin to a “toll booth.” Ships must enter Iranian waters and be vetted by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. At least two vessels have paid for passage. Traffic through the strait has fallen by 90% since the start of the Iran war, sending global oil prices skyrocketing and inflicting alarming shortages on the Asian nations that get their oil from Persian Gulf countries via the strait.

…”Iran’s IRGC has imposed a de facto ‘toll booth’ regime in the Strait of Hormuz,” says shipping information firm Lloyd’s List Intelligence. Normally ships use a two-lane shipping channel in the middle of the strait. But increasingly, vessels are taking a different route, to the north around Larak Island, placing them in Iran’s territorial waters and closer to the Iranian coastline. Entities that want their vessels to safely pass through must submit their details to what Lloyd’s List Intelligence refers to as “approved intermediaries” of the Revolutionary Guard, including the cargo, owners, destination and a complete crew list. Approved vessels receive a code and are escorted by an IRGC vessel. Oil is prioritized and vessels are subject to “geopolitical vetting,” Lloyd’s said.“While not all ships are paying a direct toll, at least two vessels have and the payment is settled in yuan,” Lloyd’s List said, referring to the Chinese currency.

On Tuesday, the International Maritime Organization received a letter from the Iranian government saying it “had implemented a set of precautionary measures aimed at preserving maritime safety and security.” The letter claimed Iran was acting within the principles of international law. Iran’s parliament appears to be working on a bill to formalize fees for some ships in the Strait of Hormuz, local media reported. The Fars and Tasnim news agencies, both close to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, quoted lawmaker Mohammadreza Rezaei Kouchi saying “parliament is pursuing a plan to formally codify Iran’s sovereignty, control and oversight over the Strait of Hormuz, while also creating a source of revenue through the collection of fees.”

The IMO has condemned the attacks on vessels and called for an internationally coordinated approach to secure passage through the strait that respects freedom of navigation. The comment by Sultan al-Jaber, who leads the massive state-run Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., signaled the hardening rhetoric of the United Arab Emirates as the war nears its one-month mark. “Weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz is not an act of aggression against one nation,” al-Jaber said in a speech for an event hosted by the Middle East Institute in Washington. “It is economic terrorism against every consumer, every family that depends on affordable energy and food. When Iran holds Hormuz hostage, every nation pays the ransom, at the gas pump, at the grocery store and at the pharmacy,” he said. “No country can be allowed to destabilize the global economy in this way.”

More at https://apnews.com/article/iran-hormuz-shipping-tolls-china-de5159966cde7de7b964b3c2c67eec07

As the United States and Israel prepared to go to war with Iran, the head of Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence service, went to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with a plan. Within days of the war’s beginning, said David Barnea, the Mossad chief, his service would likely be able to galvanize the Iranian opposition — igniting riots and other acts of rebellion that could even lead to the collapse of Iran’s government. Mr. Barnea also presented the proposal to senior Trump administration officials during a visit to Washington in mid-January.

Mr. Netanyahu adopted the plan. Despite doubts about its viability among senior American officials and some officials in other Israeli intelligence agencies, both he and President Trump seemed to embrace an optimistic outlook. Killing Iran’s leaders at the outset of the conflict, followed by a series of intelligence operations intended to encourage regime change, they thought, could lead to a mass uprising that might bring about a swift end to the war. “Take over your government: It will be yours to take,” Mr. Trump told Iranians in his initial address at the war’s start, after saying they should first seek shelter from the bombing.

…Three weeks into the war, an Iranian uprising has not yet materialized. American and Israeli intelligence assessments have concluded that the theocratic Iranian government is weakened but intact, and that widespread fear of Iran’s military and police forces has dampened prospects both for nascent rebellion in the country and for ethnic militias outside of Iran to launch cross-border incursions.

The belief that Israel and the United States could help instigate widespread revolt was a foundational flaw in the preparations for a war that has spread across the Middle East. Instead of imploding from within, Iran’s government has dug in and escalated the conflict, striking blows and counterblows against military bases, cities and ships around the Persian Gulf, and against vulnerable oil and gas installations.

…Since Mr. Trump’s first speech, American officials have largely abandoned speaking publicly about the prospects for revolt inside of Iran, yet some remain hopeful that one could materialize. Though his rhetoric has become more tempered, Mr. Netanyahu still says the American and Israeli air campaign will be aided by forces on the ground. “You can’t do revolutions from the air,” he said during a news conference on Thursday. He added: “There has to be a ground component as well. There are many possibilities for this ground component, and I take the liberty of not sharing with you all those possibilities.” Mr. Netanyahu also added that “it is too early to tell if the Iranian people will exploit the conditions we are creating for them to take to the streets. I hope that will be the case. We are working toward that end, but ultimately, it will depend only on them.”

More at https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/22/us/politics/iran-israel-trump-netanyahu-mossad.html?unlocked_article_code=1.VFA.xhPd.NNgDKFNV_4DS&smid=nytcore-ios-share

Iranian attacks have knocked out 17% of Qatar's liquefied natural gas export capacity, disrupting supplies to key markets in Europe and Asia, QatarEnergy's CEO Saad al-Kaabi told Reuters on Thursday.

Saad al-Kaabi said two of Qatar's 14 LNG trains and one of its two gas-to-liquids facilities were damaged in the strikes, sidelining 12.8 million tonnes per year of LNG output for an estimated three to five years. The disruption could result in about $20 billion in lost annual revenue. “I never in my wildest dreams would have thought that Qatar would be - Qatar and the region - in such an attack, especially from a brotherly Muslim country in the month of Ramadan, attacking us in this way," the CEO said.

The damage follows a series of Iranian strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure on Thursday. The strikes came after Israeli attacks on Iran's own gas facilities. The escalation has widened risks to global energy supply chains already under strain. Kaabi said QatarEnergy may have to declare force majeure on long-term LNG supply contracts for up to five years for shipments bound for Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China. "These are long-term contracts that we have to declare force majeure. We already declared, but that was a shorter term. Now it's whatever the period is," he said.

According to the report, US oil major ExxonMobil is a partner in ​the damaged LNG facilities. The US firm holds ⁠a 34% stake in LNG train S4 and a 30% stake in train S6, Kaabi said. The impact extends beyond LNG exports. Qatar’s condensate shipments are expected to fall by around 24%, while liquefied petroleum gas output could decline 13%. Helium production may drop 14%, and both naphtha and sulphur output are projected to fall by 6%.

https://www.businesstoday.in/world/story/iran-attacks-cut-17-of-qatar-lng-capacity-repairs-may-take-up-to-five-years-qatarenergy-ceo-521485-2026-03-19#