Cheezoholic
Cheezoholic's JournalLet's be clear, this map is not solely the result of Climate Change, it is more the result of where Florida is
With or without Climate Change FL will be hit by these huge storms. Its simply the result of FL's unique location, geography and deep symbiosis with the oceans. Climate change is increasing the frequency of both number and stronger wetter storms of course. But if you moved to FL and then bitch and OMG Climate Change! you're an idiot. Its always happened there and always will until we're extinct. And be forewarned if you plan on moving there. Either don't or if you do educate yourself about your environment. FL was never a great hospitable place for people, ever, even now. If you don't like it leave. If you can't handle it don't go. Leave the damn place be. Mother nature is going to root us out of there anyway. Yearly Fl Rant done
Stay safe and evacuate. Plead with anyone you know in evacuation zones to leave. Help them find where to evacuate to if you have to. Its right at your fingertips. Anybody who stays is selfish and risking the lives of brave first responders and further stressing the already thinly stretched disaster relief efforts both in this state and at the Federal level. YOU ARE NEEDLESLY TAKING AWAY RESOURCES FROM THOSE ALREADY IN NEED IF YOU STAY, LEAVE!
[img][/img]
Blind yourself with science. PHD's beat likes. Extensive discussion of the SCIENCE of Milton
Get the hell away from the water. This is no monkeying around. Record surge expected along 100 miles of West FL
That is all...
Think this is the farthest east I've ever seen an NHC cone, Kirk is forecast to hit Germany, though greatly weakened
as a post tropical depression. To note, the NHC will track a tropical cyclone until it completely loses all tropical characteristics and Kirk may completely lose them over NW/N France but there's enough of a possibility that their cone extends all the way to Germany lol. Its not all that uncommon for (especially late season) Atlantic storms to reach the UK, Western France or NW Africa. But the cone all the way to Germany? That's a first for me me thinks lol.
Regardless might be good time to check out BigJetTV on youtube Tue or Wed as Kirk passes by the UK. Might see some hairy commercial Jet crosswind landings that might give some the willies about flying. Jerry is a hoot too lol
https://www.youtube.com/c/BigJetTV (click the live tab)
Milton + Science No Excuse
Everyone has 4-6 days warning. I'm not posting anymore about this, it's too damn frustrating to keep hearing people didn't know the last one was coming (as far as I'm concerned if you live within 100 miles of the tropical ocean you've known this shit was coming for 30 years!). Please, listen to the science not TV and youtube screamers.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
If Helene teaches us anything its that Pinellas County FL is a ticking Time Bomb
I know there are many DUer's that live in the area and can probably attest. I lived there on Indian Rocks Beach for 12 years back in the 80's and 90's and visited there many times to see family when I was a kid and all the way up to this year. My family has roots there.
I lived in a beach shack 3 feet from the evil seawall when the Storm of the Century hit in '93. That was the highest storm surge on record for Tamps Bay and the beaches since the great storm of '21, a Cat3 that caused a 10ft storm surge and the waters of Tampa Bay and the GOM were rumored to have met on Belcher Rd in the middle of the county.
Helene broke the '93 record, from over 100 miles offshore, and sadly Helene has killed more people than the great Hurricane of '21, once again, from over 100 miles off shore.
There were maybe 30k people on the Pinellas County peninsula in 1921. It has 2.5 million now. After The Storm of the Century it suddenly became aware to me just how vulnerable this area is. Even with the estimated Cat3 storm, that actually hit to the north in Tarpon Springs, The Tampa Bay area hasn't really been hit by the big one at all in modern times.
Pinellas County is the most vulnerable and dangerous area for a major hurricane to hit in the country. Worse than New Orleans, Miami, Long Island or even a Chesapeake Bay perfect storm and here's why.
There are 2.5 million people and only 3 ways off and those ways are more causeways than bridges and they are 2 miles or more long. You cant count the Skyway, it would get closed way early in the event of a big storm because of it's height. People in the North part of the county can run North on 19 but there's a good chance you could just be running with the storm. The big one will take a Helene track 100 miles east. There is no way you're going to evacuate those people. There's nowhere near enough shelters even if the county started sending people into condos around the area because of the height. The Big One will have a 15-20 foot storm surge across the county. 60% of the county is under that. There are 100's of thousands of mobile homes concentrated in Pinellas County. The one my father lives in has damn near blown away twice and by storms that just passed by. It's 40 years old and grandfathered in from some of the new required codes. There are tens of thousands like that and they are full of poor elderly people who may not even know or have a means to evacuate. Remember this is on a 16 mile by 35 mile spit of land surrounded on 3 sides by water with 2.5 million people.
When the Big Cat4 or Cat5 hits Pinellas County and the Tampa Bay area (the South and North Bays will be washed away) it's not going to dilly dally in the Caribbean or do slow loops in the gulf (like Elena in '85) giving everyone time to get out. Its going come from the same place Helene did. It's going to come in October (75% of FL west coast storms are late season storms). Due to climate change its going to explode over the NW Caribbean and move NNE like a freight train and explode even more over the loop current in the Eastern GOM and slam right into the bay and the county from the SSW, just like Helene did and just like so many late season monsters do. People will be lucky to get 48hrs warning and even with that there is no way in hell 2.5 million people are gonna get cross 3 phreaking' 2 mile causeways.
Yes climate change and sea level rise are playing a part, but even with the GOM by some estimates a foot higher than when the great Hurricane of '21 hit, that 1ft is splitting hairs with 20ft storm surges.
Those that will be shocked by when it happens will have drown with their heads in the sand.
I really hope it won't happen, but it will.
NWS Spartanburg considering Helene in the mountains. Very serious wording here...
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...***A HISTORIC RAINFALL EVENT IS UNDERWAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY WITH WIDESPREAD/LOCALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH
FLOODING EXPECTED***
As of 315 am: Moderate to heavy rain continues across the forecast
area early this morning. Rainfall rates associated with the ongoing
activity are relatively tame...generally .25-.5" per hour (albeit
locally heavier). Nevertheless, flash flooding continues to steadily
worsen...especially across portions of the NC Blue Ridge. The center
of Hurricane Helene is currently near Vidalia, GA...and is already
accelerating (current speed ~40 mph) toward the north. Tropical
rainbands...possibly producing rainfall rates of 1-2" per hour...
will begin to rotate across the CWA during the 08-12Z time frame.
This is when the flash flood situation...which is already severe in
some areas...will become potentially catastrophic... especially in
locations that received the brunt of the predecessor event over the
past 36 hours (i.e., counties encompassing the Blue Ridge
escarpment...note that this also includes the city of Asheville and
vicinity). It`s very possible that ongoing warnings will be upgraded
to EMERGENCY designation in these areas. Reservoirs along the
Catawba River chain are also running high and these could be
breached as enuf water may not be able to be released beforehand.
Additional rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches are expected across all
but the southern and eastern fringe of the CWA (where 1.5-3" are
expected). This additional rainfall will result in...at the very
least..."run-of-the-mill" flash flooding across much of the
remainder of the CWA.
Never in 40 years seen a warning (not watch) map like this from the NHC, 6 states, 3 in entirety covered
All of GA, SC and FL are under Hurricane or Tropical Storm warnings along with parts of AL, NC and TN. Incredible
Not trying to hype this but there are now Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings for the entire states of FL, GA & SC
They just issued these for the ENTIRE states and also Western NC. The tropical storm force winds right now in the storm are 400 miles wide. The wind field is in the top 10% of the NHC's scale when it comes to Hurricane size. Please, even if your 100 miles from the coast Tub and Jug and prepare for no power or water for possibly days. This is gonna be a huge mess.
I won't post about it anymore, but wow, all 3 entire states under Hurricane and tropical storm warnings. Never seen that in 40 years of hurricane tracking, never. THE WHOLE STATES!! Just wow.
Peace, Be safe
Edit: Latest from the NHC. There's some scary stuff in this discussion...
000
WTNT44 KNHC 260255
TCDAT4
Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
Satellite images show that Helene has a well-organized appearance,
with numerous convective banding features. A ragged-looking eye
feature is also apparent. However, reports from both Air Force and
a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the system suggest
that the it lacks a well-defined inner core with a somewhat broad
maximum wind field for now. The central pressure has dropped a
little to around 972 mb. Given the slowly falling central
pressure, the intensity is maintained at 75 kt for this advisory.
Helene's structure and intensity will continue to be closely
monitored by Hurricane Hunter aircraft tonight and Thursday.
The hurricane continues moving northward with an estimated initial
motion of 360/08 kt. For the next couple of days, the steering
scenario for this system remains basically unchanged from the
earlier advisory. The flow between a mid-tropospheric trough over
the east-central United States and a ridge over the western
Atlantic should result in Helene accelerating northward to
north-northeastward during the next 24 to 36 hours. This motion
will bring the center of Helene to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico
coast in about 24 hours. The official track forecast through
landfall is very similar to the previous NHC prediction and remains
close to the corrected consensus guidance. After landfall, the
trough to the northwest of the tropical cyclone becomes a cutoff
low, and Helene should turn leftward as it rotates around the low.
In 3-4 days, the system should become a shallow extratropical
cyclone within weaker steering currents.
Helene should be in an atmospheric and oceanic environment over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico that will be very conducive for
strengthening. The system is expected to traverse the Loop Current,
which has especially high oceanic heat content. This, along with
fairly low vertical wind shear and a moist mid- to lower-
tropospheric air mass, should likely result in rapid
intensification before landfall. The official forecast continues
to call for the hurricane to reach category 4 status tomorrow. It
should be noted that the HAFS-A and HAFS-B regional hurricane models
show even more intensification than indicated here.
Helene is forecast to be a large major hurricane when it reaches the
Big Bend coast of Florida. As a result, storm surge, wind, and
rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center and outside
the forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the
fast forward speed when Helene moves inland will result in a far
inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern
United States, including strong gusts over higher terrain of the
southern Appalachians. A higher-than-normal gust factor is
indicated in the official forecast while Helene is inland.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. A catastrophic and deadly storm surge is likely along portions
of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high
as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves. There
is also a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the remainder
of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. Residents in those
areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if
told to do so.
2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds are expected
within the eyewall of Helene when it makes landfall in the Florida
Big Bend region late Thursday. Preparations to protect life and
property should be completed by early Thursday before tropical
storm conditions arrive. Damaging and life-threatening
hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will penetrate well
inland over portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia late
Thursday and Thursday night where Hurricane Warnings are in effect.
Strong wind gusts are also likely farther north across portions of
northern Georgia and the Carolinas, particularly over the higher
terrain of the southern Appalachians.
3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
including numerous landslides, is expected across portions of the
southern Appalachians through Friday. Considerable to locally
catastrophic flash and urban flooding is likely for northwestern and
northern Florida and the Southeast through Friday. Widespread minor
to moderate river flooding and isolated major river flooding are
likely.
4. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western
Cuba within the Tropical Storm Warning area. Hurricane Helene will
bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean with
potentially significant flooding across western Cuba and the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula into early Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0300Z 23.1N 86.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 25.4N 86.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 29.5N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 34.3N 84.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/0000Z 36.7N 87.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 28/1200Z 36.8N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 29/0000Z 36.7N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 30/0000Z 36.7N 84.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
I fear there is a major disaster brewing not seen in maybe a century in the southern Appalachians from Helene
I hope I'm wrong. I have friends and family who live near Cashiers NC and most left for Spartanburg today. They said the creeks in the mountain ravines are over the banks already. They said they went to see some of the falls in the area today and they are roaring already. It's been raining for 3 days and they have flood warnings up there already. I chased Ivan and was in the eye in 2004 when it hit the Panhandle. 4 days later we went up to my in laws cabin in Maggie Valley and their were towns gone, swept away by 20 ft flash floods in some areas. The Pee's Creek debris flow killed 5 and swept away 15 homes. It was the worst flooding they'd seen since Jerry in "95 but much worse.
NWS in Spartanburg is urging people to evacuate. They are expecting much worse flooding conditions than Ivan. The National Geologic Survey has determined that the area has been "presoaked" to the point they expect whole mountainsides to give way and/or very large landslides and debris flows similar to Lahars in the Pacific NW in some areas. The ground is already 100% saturated and along the higher elevations they could experience 60 mph sustained winds that will easily topple trees into the streams enhancing any landslides or mudflows. These areas are not in any way prepared for this and if people aren't moving this is a potential catastrophic disaster in the making on top of any devastation farther south from Helene.
While flash flooding is part of mountain life, nothing on this scale has happened since all of the development in the Southern Appalachians. NWS is calling it potentially a once in 100 year event. Lets hope this storm makes landfall and takes a hard left and spares the mtns. The media won't cover this threat until the dead are buried under mud and then they'll go "What happened?" in typical fashion. The area is close to my heart and my family's heritage. Yes I have cousins and double cousins down there lol. I hope everyone is smart and does the right thing. I think most of mine have.
Profile Information
Member since: Wed Sep 30, 2020, 04:57 PMNumber of posts: 2,573