imagine if president obama had dinner with a dangerous black activist who said "kill all the white people" and you'll see how the press is severely underplaying trump's dinner w nick fuentes and what that means about the modern gop.

https://twitter.com/owillis/status/1596192628206436354?s=20&t=kyUnStCsPtwOZL1JWVa-qw

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/amidst-the-corruption

The most notable thing is that for ever dollar I give literally one cent goes to Herschel Walker’s campaign. 98 cents goes to the NRSC. This is fairly shocking in itself. But at the moment the NRSC’s main task is getting Walker elected. That’s the only outstanding Senate race. So maybe you can argue that NRSC money is mostly going to support Walker. Maybe.

But the thing that really jumped out to me is that the NRSC gets 98 cents, Herschel Walker gets one cent and “Team Rick Scott” also gets one cent. Rick Scott ran the NRSC for this cycle, a fairly disastrous run. This cycle continues with the runoff. But what’s Team Rick Scott? That’s Scott’s own personal campaign committee. And what’s the point exactly? After all it’s just one cent. If he’s going to put his hand in the till why not take more? The Times‘ Shane Goldmacher I think has this right. It’s not the money so much as the data. Scott only has a one cent toehold but he gets the donor data on every dollar these NRSC fundraising pitches bring in. It’s just astonishingly brazen.

https://www.indystar.com/story/opinion/columnists/james-briggs/2022/11/20/destiny-wells-diego-morales-indiana-secretary-of-state-election-results/69661647007/

Piece discusses electoral prospects of Dems in Indiana

Morales was a terrible candidate-- an Trump election denier with a criminal past-- and Wells was a great candidate. Really sad state of affairs here.

"Indiana’s Republican lean is a constant variable in Indiana. Beyond that, though, Democrats see three trends specific to this year that wiped out any chance of Wells winning: low voter turnout in Democratic-leaning Marion County, straight-ticket voting (in favor of Republicans) in rural counties and an unusually competitive congressional election in the 1st District that cut off a Democratic stronghold in Northwest Indiana.

Republican Jennifer-Ruth Green’s strong performance against U.S. Rep. Frank Mrvan hurt Wells in Lake, Porter and La Porte counties. Even though Mrvan pulled off re-election to a second term, that’s an area where Democrats historically have run up the score. Wells lost to Morales in Porter and La Porte counties while winning by 9 points in Lake County. The tight race brought an influx of outside ad spending that turned out votes for Republicans, including Morales.

“In rural townships that (used to) run reliably Democratic, they’re now casting straight-ticket Republican votes at a pace of 2-to-1,” Shaw Friedman, a LaPorte attorney who is a DNC member representing northern Indiana, told me. “It became acute in 2020 and even more so this year. If you look across Northwest Indiana, there’s just a swath cut among folks who used to be our bread and butter.”

Outside of Marion County, Democrats aren’t gaining ground anywhere at a fast enough rate to overcome their losses in Northwest Indiana and other parts of the state. Carmel continues to be a rare (though unreliable) bright spot for Democrats. Wells beat Morales by 6 points in Carmel even as she lost Hamilton County by 4 points."


This piece here also discusses the sad state of affairs of Indiana politics--


https://www.indystar.com/story/opinion/2022/11/18/choices-made-on-election-day-could-mean-hoosiers-pay-big-price-later/69655293007/

On Tuesday night, I sat with my friends in my county's Democrat headquarters and watched as the election results came in. I watched as one by one, most of these highly qualified individuals — many of whom I've gotten to know quite well and call friends — were passed over in favor of their opponent.

This is despite the fact that they went out every day to speak with voters, showed up to town halls and debates, and completed online surveys and questionnaires so voters could better understand their positions, while the vast majority of Republicans — at the express instruction of their party chairs — no-showed these public forums and failed to answer online surveys or interview requests. And all because they simply didn't have the "right" letter by their name.

So, Destiny Wells, accomplished attorney and longtime Army reservist, lost to an election denier who not only illegally voted himself in 2018, but was also twice fired from the Secretary of State's office that he will now run.
Democratic Secretary of State candidate Destiny Wells speaks with local constituents Wednesday, Sept. 21, 2022, at Sugar Creek Winery in Carmel. She hopes to beat embattled Republican candidate Diego Morales.


In Zionsville, biotech and pharmaceutical researcher Jen Bass-Patino lost to an evangelical, anti-choice, anti-science anti-vaxxer. Youth chaplain and community volunteer Zach Heimach lost to a transphobic, extremist doctor who is accused of causing the death of a patient due to negligence in northeast Indiana. ... A school board in Hamilton County — ranked among the healthiest, wealthiest, most educated places in the country — was just overrun by anti-public school conspiracy theorists who accuse teachers of handing out porn to students and allowing them to defecate in litter boxes."

the level of doomsaying is bizarre.

On twitter, I saw the opposite with the people I follow.

Personally, my gut feeling is abortion is a huge voting issue that is not captured in the polls and there are a lot of young voters the polls aren't taking into account. I could be wrong of course and I am bracing for the worst.

But I am hopeful. This GOP is so wretched and they are due for a major comeuppance.

And of course conservatives are griping about this big time and naturally blaming Biden.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Gas-Prices/Four-Reasons-Why-The-US-Is-Grappling-With-A-Diesel-Shortage.html

Four Reasons Why The U.S. Is Grappling With A Diesel Shortage
By Robert Rapier - Nov 05, 2022, 4:00 PM CDT

Distillate levels in the United States have plummeted to the lowest levels since 2008.
Low distillate inventories have sent diesel prices soaring.
Four primary factors lead to this shortage.

----------

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/what-backwardation-has-to-do-with-us-diesel-squeeze/2022/10/21/6c8fe9c2-5149-11ed-ada8-04e6e6bf8b19_story.html

A crisis is once again brewing in the US for the diesel fuel that powers trucks and heats homes. Global shortages and a market phenomenon known as backwardation are frustrating Biden administration efforts to bolster dangerously low domestic inventories and keep prices from soaring as winter approaches. Officials are now considering steps like export restrictions that would be unprecedented -- and that critics say could well backfire.

1. What’s happening?

The country is down to 25 days of diesel supply with stockpiles at their lowest level for this time of year in records going back to 1993. In the Northeast, where more people burn fuel for home heating than anywhere else in the country, inventories are a third of their typical levels heading into winter. National Economic Council Director Brian Deese called the levels “unacceptably low.” By late October, diesel prices had risen for more than two weeks to 50% above where they were a year ago.
Advertisement

2. What does backwardation have to do with it?

Backwardation and contango are names for curve structures that map traders’ guesses about what a given contract will be worth in the future. In the former, the curve is downward sloping, meaning prices are expected to fall in the future; in the latter, it’s the reverse and upward sloping. Right now, traders are paying more for prompt deliveries than longer-term ones. This backwardated market structure incentivizes suppliers to sell now instead of holding onto the product -- the opposite of what President Joe Biden wants them to do.

3. How is that driving markets?

In October, the diesel curve had become so backwardated that sellers risked losing as much as 30 to 40 cents a gallon holding onto the product until the next month, compared with less than 1 cent at the same time last year. Not only was the spread unusually large, but the backwardation had lasted unusually long: Typically the diesel market flips into contango in the summer, allowing suppliers to replenish fuel ahead of peak harvest and heating season. This year, that never happened.

-----------

https://www.wesa.fm/2022-10-29/how-the-diesel-shortage-is-being-felt-globally

If you've been paying attention to prices at the pump, especially if you use diesel, you probably already know this. There's a big difference between the price of gasoline and diesel. That's because right now, the U.S. is experiencing one of the biggest shortages of diesel since 2008. Currently, there are only 25 days of supply left, and that number is dropping fast. And this matters even if you don't use diesel yourself, because it's an essential part of the supply chain. And as temperatures begin to drop, thousands of households across the country will be using it as their primary source of heat.

So what will it mean if things continue like this? And will we see something like this happen to gasoline? To help us think about this, we have Chunzi Xu. She covers the oil industry, particularly refined products, for Bloomberg News. And she is with us now. Chunzi Xu, thank you so much for joining us.

CHUNZI XU: Hi. I'm glad to be here.

MARTIN: So can I just start off with a basic question for people who aren't familiar with this? What exactly is diesel, and why is it so important as an energy source?

XU: Diesel is the fuel of the economy, and it's in just about everything that we use. The bulk of manufactured and retail goods move day and night on trucks and trains powered by the fuel and manufacturing. Farming and heating also relies on diesel. And diesel is so deeply embedded in American life that its consumption is often seen as a barometer of the country's overall economic activity. Without it, the supply chains would collapse, and things simply wouldn't work.

-----------

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/diesels-gloomy-message-global-economy-kemp-2022-10-14/

LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Global shortages of middle distillates such as diesel, gas oil and heating oil are intensifying rather than easing – making it more likely a relatively severe slowdown in the business cycle will be necessary to rebalance the market:

U.S. inventories of distillate fuel oil depleted to 106 million barrels on Oct. 7, the lowest seasonal level since the government began collecting weekly data in 1982.
EU distillate inventories were just 360 million barrels at the end of September, the lowest seasonal level since 2004.
Singapore mid-distillate inventories have fallen to just 8 million barrels, the lowest seasonal level since 2007.

The global petroleum and refining system has proved unable to keep up with rapid growth in fuel consumption as a result of the manufacturing and freight-led recovery after the coronavirus pandemic.
REFINERY LIMITS

The immediate bottleneck is the lack of enough distillation and catalytic cracking capacity to make middle distillates from crude (“Oil refining industry insights”, International Energy Forum, Sept. 2022).
-----------

https://news.google.com/search?for=diesel+fuel+shortage&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen

of course conservatives are griping about this big time and naturally blaming Biden.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Gas-Prices/Four-Reasons-Why-The-US-Is-Grappling-With-A-Diesel-Shortage.html

Four Reasons Why The U.S. Is Grappling With A Diesel Shortage
By Robert Rapier - Nov 05, 2022, 4:00 PM CDT

Distillate levels in the United States have plummeted to the lowest levels since 2008.
Low distillate inventories have sent diesel prices soaring.
Four primary factors lead to this shortage.

----------

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/what-backwardation-has-to-do-with-us-diesel-squeeze/2022/10/21/6c8fe9c2-5149-11ed-ada8-04e6e6bf8b19_story.html

A crisis is once again brewing in the US for the diesel fuel that powers trucks and heats homes. Global shortages and a market phenomenon known as backwardation are frustrating Biden administration efforts to bolster dangerously low domestic inventories and keep prices from soaring as winter approaches. Officials are now considering steps like export restrictions that would be unprecedented -- and that critics say could well backfire.

1. What’s happening?

The country is down to 25 days of diesel supply with stockpiles at their lowest level for this time of year in records going back to 1993. In the Northeast, where more people burn fuel for home heating than anywhere else in the country, inventories are a third of their typical levels heading into winter. National Economic Council Director Brian Deese called the levels “unacceptably low.” By late October, diesel prices had risen for more than two weeks to 50% above where they were a year ago.
Advertisement

2. What does backwardation have to do with it?

Backwardation and contango are names for curve structures that map traders’ guesses about what a given contract will be worth in the future. In the former, the curve is downward sloping, meaning prices are expected to fall in the future; in the latter, it’s the reverse and upward sloping. Right now, traders are paying more for prompt deliveries than longer-term ones. This backwardated market structure incentivizes suppliers to sell now instead of holding onto the product -- the opposite of what President Joe Biden wants them to do.

3. How is that driving markets?

In October, the diesel curve had become so backwardated that sellers risked losing as much as 30 to 40 cents a gallon holding onto the product until the next month, compared with less than 1 cent at the same time last year. Not only was the spread unusually large, but the backwardation had lasted unusually long: Typically the diesel market flips into contango in the summer, allowing suppliers to replenish fuel ahead of peak harvest and heating season. This year, that never happened.

-----------

https://www.wesa.fm/2022-10-29/how-the-diesel-shortage-is-being-felt-globally

If you've been paying attention to prices at the pump, especially if you use diesel, you probably already know this. There's a big difference between the price of gasoline and diesel. That's because right now, the U.S. is experiencing one of the biggest shortages of diesel since 2008. Currently, there are only 25 days of supply left, and that number is dropping fast. And this matters even if you don't use diesel yourself, because it's an essential part of the supply chain. And as temperatures begin to drop, thousands of households across the country will be using it as their primary source of heat.

So what will it mean if things continue like this? And will we see something like this happen to gasoline? To help us think about this, we have Chunzi Xu. She covers the oil industry, particularly refined products, for Bloomberg News. And she is with us now. Chunzi Xu, thank you so much for joining us.

CHUNZI XU: Hi. I'm glad to be here.

MARTIN: So can I just start off with a basic question for people who aren't familiar with this? What exactly is diesel, and why is it so important as an energy source?

XU: Diesel is the fuel of the economy, and it's in just about everything that we use. The bulk of manufactured and retail goods move day and night on trucks and trains powered by the fuel and manufacturing. Farming and heating also relies on diesel. And diesel is so deeply embedded in American life that its consumption is often seen as a barometer of the country's overall economic activity. Without it, the supply chains would collapse, and things simply wouldn't work.

-----------

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/diesels-gloomy-message-global-economy-kemp-2022-10-14/

LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Global shortages of middle distillates such as diesel, gas oil and heating oil are intensifying rather than easing – making it more likely a relatively severe slowdown in the business cycle will be necessary to rebalance the market:

U.S. inventories of distillate fuel oil depleted to 106 million barrels on Oct. 7, the lowest seasonal level since the government began collecting weekly data in 1982.
EU distillate inventories were just 360 million barrels at the end of September, the lowest seasonal level since 2004.
Singapore mid-distillate inventories have fallen to just 8 million barrels, the lowest seasonal level since 2007.

The global petroleum and refining system has proved unable to keep up with rapid growth in fuel consumption as a result of the manufacturing and freight-led recovery after the coronavirus pandemic.
REFINERY LIMITS

The immediate bottleneck is the lack of enough distillation and catalytic cracking capacity to make middle distillates from crude (“Oil refining industry insights”, International Energy Forum, Sept. 2022).
-----------

https://news.google.com/search?for=diesel+fuel+shortage&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen

It's truly maddening and depressing to see not see their shit called out by the supposedly non-partisan media.

No headline should ever mention Trump without a negative attribute of some sort. No story should be published without mentioning his fascist election denial, multiple crimes and white supremacy.

"The credible, close-call attempt to kill or maim Speaker Nancy Pelosi for a second time, and the GOP response, signals how close the US is to the end of the road as a Democracy. It also tells us about what comes after the fall.

The GOP has generally treated it as a joke, denied that DePape was conservative, or spread conspiracy theories that it was a gay quarrel during a hookup. There's been a lot of wink and nudge, "Sure it was bad, but whatever gets Nancy out, amiright?" comments like Youngkin's.

There has been almost NOTHING done to deter other would be assassins from killing Democratic officials. When people protested outside homes of SCOTUS justices, security was immediately increased. Dead silence now.

The difference is that Dems and Republicans are willing to protect conservative officials, but Republicans aren't willing to protect Dems, because they know that actual violence against officials is driven by the right wing base.

“We” Don’t Have a Political Violence Problem. Republicans Do.
The Paul Pelosi attack was no aberration. Only one party counts violent insurrectionists as a constituency it dare not alienate.
https://newrepublic.com/article/168391/political-violence-is-republicans-problem

There is the implicit assumption by Republican leaders that violence will come for their opponents, and not for them.

And at the moment, they're correct.

But, most of them weren't in Iraq from 2004-2006.

I had a front row seat as Sunnis, cut off from power, formed AQI and started launching a campaign of terror aimed at government officials, particularly judges. Targeting family members was very much part of their CONOPS.

It didn't take long before retaliations began.

Baghdad segregated rapidly, as mixed neighborhoods forced out people who were the local minority. Similar (violent) sorting happened among Iraqi Kurds in the north.

One lesson I took away is that once political murders are normalized, you can't put the toothpaste back in the tube. It turns into an accelerating cycle of violence, particularly when both sides feel like it's a matter of group survival.

Part of the violence in Iraq in that period was the settling of old scores. Saddam had displaced, gassed, and murdered innumerable Kurds. He had kept Shiites (who form a plurality of the population) powerless and second class citizens for decades.

In the US, the GOP intends to seize power, and never let go, much as Saddam did with the Ba'ath Party. They're not hiding it. I'm not engaging in hyperbole or putting words in people's mouths. This is coming straight from their candidates.

If the GOP does win, they're promising to settle scores. Here we have the former President, and likely the next administration, promising to lock up journalists and have them raped until they give up confidential sources.

Trump Threatens Journalists With Prison Rape for Not Revealing Supreme Court Leak (Video)
“When this person realizes he’s going to be the bride of another prisoner very shortly he will…'tell you exactly who that leaker is!'" Trump warned
https://www.yahoo.com/video/trump-threatens-journalists-prison-rape-182417235.html

The repeated violence against Pelosi, and ongoing stochastic terror, is a promise of what is to come. If the GOP seizes power, you can be sure that they will do as little as possible to prevent, stop, deter, or prosecute political killings.

The DoJ will become a tool for imprisoning political opponents. It also won't lift a finger to do anything about assassinations of Democrats, journalists, or political enemies or disfavored minorities (like trans people or doctors treating them).

They'll claw back control of the City of DC, and prevent prosecutions of violence against Dems there, while blaming the murders on the victims for being soft on crime.

(snip)

Take it from someone who spent most of the aughts studying insurgency, counter insurgency, destabilized countries, hybrid governments, and evaluating the risks of civil war: what is happening with Pelosi is playing with fire."

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1587793900948885504.html

There are a lot of key governor-ships at stake, and state legislative races are also super important. Also local elections, school boards, etc.

These also may not be as affected by national trends. There's a lot going on and state legislative and local races can be decided by small margins. So you can have more impact at the local level.

This is powerful
https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/status/1583532401371643906?s=20&t=8MoZP6yQcUyNHba9D1cEgA