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Pobeka

Pobeka's Journal
Pobeka's Journal
February 23, 2023

Divorce, GOP extremism strategy and the long game.

This is taken from another post I made in response to current GOP extremism tactics.

I believe the extremism, regardless of how they got here, is a means to an end.

To understand requires taking a longer view, and a reflection of history of the past few decades.

First the problem the GOP faces:
Changing demographics. Younger voters, more diverse voters, voters who are as a general rule not going to vote R.

So, facing that certainty, how does the GOP remain a powerful force?

Consider
1) electoral votes are skewed to give more power to lower population states.
2) The Senate gives absolutely no differential power based on population of the state
3) The Senate also approves nominees for courts, govt positions, federal bills.

Given those three considerations, (and probably more), and the changing demographics, what can the GOP do?

They can play the long game. The long game is what they have been playing for a few decades now, and it has worked quite well. They have focused at the state level. This game, which literally took decades to play out, has allowed for extreme gerrymandering to help retain power in the U.S. House. But even that game won't work as demographics continue to push harder, narrowing election wins and starting to swing D.

So, what is the long game now?
Drive D voters out of red states. Attract R voters to red states.

How do you drive D voters out?
Make the state unlivable for people with a conscience, for people with educations, for people who care about other people and the planet.

Of course, this will not cause people to move instantly, and some people will stay put for reasons of family, or historical bonds. But you don't need everyone to move, and you have to be willing to let time and cultural pressure do its work. The GOP has seen how time can do the work with patience.

And now we have from the GOP moves that impact or create legislation for:
. Attacks on race
. Striking down Roe V. Wade
. Attacks on LGBTQ
. Attacks on teaching race history
. Book Banning
. Attacking Women
. Attacking immigrants
. Loosening gun laws
...

Those things (and others) will, over a decade cause enough people to either move outright, not consider moving to certain states, employers (with a conscience) to reconsider certain states. Enough so the GOP can regain and maintain control of the Senate? -- possibly so. Enough to squeak out another presidential election or two? -- possibly so. If they get the Whitehouse, Senate and the House, you can be sure there will be continued weakening of voting rights, and voting restrictions that impact D voters more the R voters.

As @NowISeeTheLight points out in response, if the GOP can sieze radical control of enough statehouses, they can call for a constitutional convention, which is a process that is essentially unbounded by any rules, or a governing body. See: https://www.commoncause.org/resource/u-s-constitution-threatened-as-article-v-convention-movement-nears-success/

It's certainly worth the GOP trying it, they understand the long game. I don't think DEMs really understand the long game.

While I think this is the GOP's underlying long term strategy, I don't have any idea how to counter it, other than to make it publicly obvious, and hope it will motivate people to vote for democracy right now.

February 19, 2023

I believe extremism is their strategy right now.

And it has nothing to do with what led them here.

To understand it takes a longer view, and a reflection of history of the past few decades.

First the problem the GOP faces:
Changing demographics. Younger voters, more diverse voters, voters who are as a general rule not going to vote R.

So, facing that certainty, how does the GOP remain a powerful force?

Consider
1) electoral votes are skewed to give more power to lower population states.
2) The Senate gives absolutely no differential power based on population of the state
3) The Senate also approves nominees for courts, govt positions, federal bills.

Given those three considerations, (and probably more), what can the GOP do?

They can play the long game. The long game is what they have been playing for a few decades now, and it has worked quite well. They have focused at the state level. This game, which literally took decades to play out, has allowed for extreme gerrymandering to help retain power in the U.S. House. But even that game won't work as demographics continue to push harder, narrowing election wins and starting to swing D.

So, what is the long game now?
Drive D voters out of red states. Attract R voters to red states.

So how do you drive D voters out?
Make the state unlivable for people with a conscience, for people with educations, for people who care about other people and the planet.

Of course, this will not cause people to move instantly, and some people will stay put for reasons of family, or historical bonds. But you don't need everyone to move, and you have to be willing to let time and cultural pressure do its work. The GOP has seen how time can do the work with patience.

And now we have from the GOP moves that impact or create legislation for:
. Striking down Roe V. Wade
. Attacks on LGBTQ
. Attacks on teaching race history
. Book Banning
. Attacking Women
. Attacking immigrants
. Loosening gun laws
...

Those things (and others) will, over a decade cause enough people to either move outright, not consider moving to certain states, employers (with a conscience) to reconsider certain states. Enough so the GOP can regain and maintain control of the Senate? -- possibly so. Enough to squeek out another presidential election or two? -- possibly so.

It's certainly worth the GOP trying it, they understand the long game. I don't think DEMs really understand the long game.

(on edit, added "Loosening gun laws" to the list)

July 6, 2018

Grand Tetons / Yellowstone

Looking north from Signal Mtn in Tetons towards Yellowstone.



Ripple on Oxbow bend with reflections of Tetons



Grand Prismatic Spring, from Faery Falls overlook

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Number of posts: 4,999

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