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RAFisher

RAFisher's Journal
RAFisher's Journal
February 13, 2017

Trump might return to Palm Beach for third straight weekend

Source: Palm Beach Post

UPDATE: President Donald Trump will return to his Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach this weekend, according to a Federal Aviation Administration advisory issued just moments ago.

Trump will be in town from Friday through Monday, according to the FAA. The advisories issued by the agency are among the best indicators of presidential travel. They are issued several days before the FAA enacts temporary flight restrictions, and are intended as a heads up to pilots who may travel through an area when a president is visiting.

EARLIER STORY:

PALM BEACH — President Donald Trump, who just left town Sunday, might be coming back to his winter White House at Mar-a-Lago for a third straight weekend.

It’s not confirmed, but Palm Beach County Airports Director Bruce Pelly told about two dozen local officials and business representatives during a meeting this morning that he has heard Trump is returning for the President’s Day weekend, Palm Beach Post reporter Eliot Kleinberg says.

Read more: http://postonpolitics.blog.palmbeachpost.com/2017/02/13/trump-might-return-to-palm-beach-for-third-straight-weekend/



You have got to be kidding me. It this going to happen every week now? WTF. This is even more irritating for me because I just moved to Boca Raton last month. As if I-95 traffic isn't already bad, now this asshole wants to come every weekend.
November 5, 2016

Electoral College Voter Says He Will Not Vote For Hillary Clinton Even If She Wins His State

Source: Huffington Post

WASHINGTON ― An Electoral College voter from Washington state told the Associated Press on Friday that he would not vote for Hillary Clinton under any circumstances, even if, as is firmly expected, Clinton wins his state’s popular vote.

The elector, Robert Satiacum, is a Native American who supported Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in the Democratic Primary and told the AP that Clinton is a “criminal” who hasn’t done enough on Native American issues.

“She will not get my vote. Period,” Satiacum said in a phone interview with the news service.

While that is technically Satiacum’s prerogative, as an elected member of the Electoral College, he will face a $1,000 fine from Washington for not voting for the winner of that state.

Read more: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/electoral-college-voter-not-voting-clinton_us_581d145ae4b0d9ce6fbc3941

July 28, 2016

Pennsylvania: First post-RNC polls shows Clinton maintaining +9% lead.

This is very good news. With the national polls get closer there is a fear that swing states will get closer. Nate Silver wrote about it this morning. Before this the last Penn poll was from 2 weeks ago. National polls normally show the race tightening first and state polling lags behind. But this is showing Pennsylvania looking more solidly blue.

Also Toomey is losing by 7%: Toomey 36, McGinty 43

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Suffolk_FINAL_PA_Marginals.pdf

July 19, 2016

Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Is As Safe As Kerry’s Was In 2004 - Nate Silver


There has been a lot of polling over the past few days in advance of the Republican National Convention, which got underway Monday in Cleveland. But it mostly confirmed the conclusion our election forecast models had arrived at late last week: Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 3 or 4 percentage points. That’s down from a lead of 6 or 7 percentage points a few weeks ago.

As a result, Trump’s odds have improved. He has a 36 percent chance of winning the election, according to our polls-only forecast, and a 38 percent chance according to polls-plus. (While the polls-only and polls-plus forecasts are well aligned now, they may begin to diverge during the conventions — more about that in a moment.)

But Clinton remains ahead of Trump in the clear majority of polls. She leads by about the same margin that Barack Obama did heading into the conventions in 2008, and by a somewhat larger margin than Obama did in 2012.

I’ve nevertheless detected a lot of consternation among Clinton voters: Why isn’t her position safer? There’s really about a 35 or 40 percent chance that Trump will become president?

Based on the polls, we think the model is setting those odds about right. The race is a long way from being a toss-up, but a 3 or 4 percentage point lead heading into the conventions isn’t all that reliable, either. While Obama won twice with pre-convention leads of about that margin, John Kerry went into his convention with a lead of about 3 percentage points in 2004, but lost to George W. Bush. And in 2000, Bush had about a 4-point lead on the eve of the conventions, but lost the popular vote to Al Gore. (Bush won the Electoral College, of course.)

The flip side is that the recent polls could just as easily prove to be a low-water mark for Clinton. Conventions have oftentimes helped the incumbent party’s candidate. One of the biggest turnarounds came in 1988, when Michael Dukakis, the upstart winner of the Democratic nomination, held a lead of 6 or 7 percentage points going into the conventions. But a well-staged Republican convention in New Orleans helped to unify the GOP and highlight the successes of George H.W. Bush and Ronald Reagan, and Bush eventually won by a landslide.

What’s relatively safe to say is that we’ll know a lot more in a month or so. Below, you’ll find a comparison of where national polls stood heading into the challenging party’s convention, and then 30 days after the incumbent party’s convention.1 (By tradition, the incumbent party — Democrats this year — holds their convention last.) The pre-convention polls missed the final margin in the race by an average of 6.4 percentage points. By contrast, the post-convention polls missed it by 4.0 points, a considerable improvement. And since 1972, they’ve gone 11-for-11 in identifying the winner of the popular vote.


Continued on 538:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-lead-is-as-safe-as-kerrys-was-in-2004/

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