July 25, 2024

Kamala Harris isn't playing around.

Vice President Kamala Harris spoke to the national conference for 6,000 women members of the historically Black Zeta Phi Beta sorority today:

That bold and candid declaration is reflected all throughout VP Harris's new stump speech.

Her introductory address is an unapologetic and uncompromising declaration to not only protect and defend the gains Democrats have made in the past, but to push forward to enact the obstructed and stalled planks of our agenda which almost everyone in the country is in agreement with advancing except republicans.

(excerpt)



Kamala Harris' appeal to Americans is decidedly forward looking, and her agenda is unbound by past diversions and deliberate distractions meant to muddle and stifle progress.

When President Biden remarked in his address tonight that he intends to 'pass the torch to a new generation,' I was drawn all the way back to that moment at American University where President John Kennedy stood and heralded the coming of a 'New Frontier'; a small memorial at the top of a field in the shade of a wide line of oaks, a place where I've stood several times and reflected on the promise and result of his vision of progress in his time.

My own perspective of what politics is good for goes all the way back to when I was seven years-old in an afterschool day care center in Washington, D.C. and heard a news report break in on the music quietly playing from a radio, and the announcer declared loudly that Johnson wouldn't run and Nixon would win.

For some reason I just started bawling, and wouldn't stop until I got directed to a corner to cool off (almost got my knuckles cracked with the caretaker's ruler). My father heard about the whole thing when he picked me up, and the next day he gave me a Humphrey button that was almost as big as my face.

It was the end of March in 1968. A few short days later Martin Luther King Lay dead on the balcony of a motel from an assassin's bullet. The entire city exploded around our quiet, working class neighborhood which was populated with mostly black families and the few Jewish families that had remained there after 'white flight' in the late 50's.

The riots afterward eviscerated what was left of the mostly Jewish businesses which had thrived for decades along Georgia and New Hampshire avenues; businesses which had served those communities for as long as most of the residents could remember were gone almost overnight and never returned.

Most of what I remember in the aftermath was smoldering brick and broken windows. It was impossible to scoop a handful of dirt on our playgrounds that didn't contain tiny bits of glass, and almost every window on the schools were broken out until they permanently boarded them.

When I think of President Johnson, I remember the promises he kept for John Kennedy, like the slain president's 'affirmative action' initiative which set quotas for businesses and contractors who were paid by the government; Kennedy's Civil Rights Act; and the Equal Employment Opportunity Act which employed my own father until he retired as Director of Civil Rights at the agency.

Right up until Reagan there was always a drive by our political leaders to provide something for the American people to prosper and succeed. That glib demagogue was the first modern president who sought to role back protections, take away benefits, and eliminate all vestiges of progress already established and producing results.

Something about that republican political era set the Democratic party on it's heels in a struggle to not only regain what we'd lost under Reagan, but find a way to regain the forward progress that had defined our nation, not just a political party.

It was not for lack of trying, but more from a lack of enough political power as the Bush's terms straddled the Clinton era's defensive crouch over 'crime,' health care, and other self-inflicted distractions.

There's a lot to be said for a pragmatic politics which intends to take what parties agree on and move those things forward. But that sentiment is positively Clintonian; a relic of the republican war on America as that party fought progress, and fought democracy itself to establish their own power.

Republican politics has been a mere facade, a political construction republicans unified on and pressed forward through every reality arrayed against them until they prevailed. It's no accident that the 'big lie' became their last refuge. It's a product of their commitment to ruthlessness and uncompromising determination to get what they want.

Democrats yielded by letting the debate get muddled with deliberate distractions and diversions; like arguing about hunters when we should have stuck to advocating for the children; getting diverted into absurd debates about fetal tissue and late-term abortions that are already outlawed; false choices between the environment and jobs; arguing for voter protections whild defending against bogus claims of widespread fraud.

It may be too much to expect that there won't be many of the same compromises made on fundamental issues from Harris administration because of political realities. But this impressive start of hers promises to determinately advance the interests and concerns which an established political class have treated like their personal property for decades as they traded the unfinished agendas back and forth, and to and fro like drug dealers coveting their stash.

We've seen the republican party descend into an absolute gutter of their worst instincts, and their supporting base has become a last bastion of division and hate. Republicans are now the only major dealers in town willing to manufacture and distribute this apathy and inaction to their followers and others out of their sordid and squalid sewer of a party.

It was refreshing to hear the unapologetic declarations Vice President Harris made in her addresses introducing her campaign to the American people.

An exchange in a recent Rolling Stone interview makes her unbending focus on what she wants to achieve clear:



A Harris presidency promises to be unbound by the debates of the past, and focused firmly on a future of hope and progress. She is a transitional figure who can bridge the understandings of the not so distant past struggles of America, with the promise of our new generations of Americans ahead.

Kamala Harris isn't playing around.

July 24, 2024

Annoyed and disgusted by the anti-Kamala racism, but it's all in one basket

..it's not as if this tactic is going to appeal to the voters the GOP needs to fill out their maga card beyond their party cultists.

It's not like a whispering campaign where it's easy to sidle up to someone using coded racism without any overt attacks; loaded terms like unqualified, street, DEI, and the rest are so old and tired that they immediately define the person baiting to most of us.

Republicans used to get mileage in the pre-Trump era with winks and nods, instead of the racist tropes that many in that party have become comfortable using outwardly and publicly in their political rhetoric.

Thing is, it's now clear that those despicable people are well anchored to the republican party. There's very little safe room today for anyone in our party to associate themselves with clearly derogatory language centered on the race of an individual or group in America like crime, poverty, and welfare were used as political cudgels against black Americans by members of both parties in my own past.

Racists are so republican these days. It's become their standard, primary, and open appeal to identify themselves apart from anything other than their whiteness, and to condemn all else as inferior to their own identity.

That's where racists reside. The republican party has become a haven for racists in this election, to the degree that none other will be able to identify with them, lest they taint themselves with maga vileness and pathetic displays of insecurity and self-loathing.

So I watched the reports about this, and right away put it all in one basket. There's no misunderstanding, or any common thread of opportunistically placed concern about the people maga hates on in almost every expression; their hatred amplified and targeted now toward the emerging Democratic nominee.

Kamala Harris' blackness is an exclusively republican concern in this election which is not shared at all by the vast majority of Democrats who see her ascension as an opportunity for all Americans to advance and succeed.

It is concerning that one entire party has degenerated even further below their previous low state, and has surrendered to the very worst of instincts and attitudes in our communities.

But the voters and others who are attracted to those despicable appeals to hatred aren't worth the worry in this campaign. It's a republican thing, not something Democrats tolerate in any way.

Racism is a dividing and limiting relic of the past, and our Democratic party and nominee is a harbinger of our nation's diverse and inclusive future. We are not bound as a nation by old, discredited attitudes and opinions.

July 24, 2024

So, what just happened?

...looking forward, and that's the only direction really worth discussing right now, it's palatably clear that a weight has been lifted off of the party by the ascension of Kamala Harris as our nominee, and indeed, a barrier has been removed out of the way of millions of voters already, anyway, primed to oppose Donald Trump in the next election.

The barrier and weight has revealed itself to have been none other than our tireless warrior we originally tasked with carrying out this fight against the republican nominee.

For all of President Biden's historic accomplishments on issues and concerns like Covid recovery, economic growth, jobs, access to health insurance and care, the environment, and the entire panoply of issues and concerns that most Democrats consider necessary and vital, the president faltered in convincing many Americans that he could move from those achievements into the future.

Much of it is his age, as unfair and very likely completely wrong as that view may be; for all of Joe Biden's appeal, and there is a wealth of that on every level from political friend and foe alike; he couldn't move past his convincing argument that he had prepared the nation for the future, to the conclusion he wanted to get across that he was the best person to make that happen.

I won't belabor the point that Kamala Harris was right there the entire time for the political elite and the political class to present to us as an alternate option. It's not as if the Vice President crisscrossing the nation on behalf of the administration and her ticket, and raising the most money in the most appearances between the two on the road for most of the year, had ANY visible support from ANY political quarter to step in front of her mentor and assume the Democratic candidacy.

And I won't pretend that I could be included in those who believed that VP Harris could easily garner enough support to adopt most of Joe's delegates; at least not without a major fight in which I was certain she would lose out to a centrist, consensus ticket.

The shock over the instant erasure of votes and hopes in many quarters, including my own angst, gave way to a reflexive rationality across the board, that was, partly about the perfect solution to the unraveling of the Democratic process and our party convention, and mostly about the realization of the dynamism at the heart of the Biden administration from a contemporary political figure who has always looked and moved forward with action and determination.

You can take the Kamala Harris in 2018 advocating 'for the people' in 2018, and stand her up against the Harris of 2024 and you find an uninterrupted fight for the things she advocated for then, with a record now of realizing most of that agenda; but with the added bonus of the vision and energy to carry those interests, concerns, and ideals into the future.

God bless him, you can't take Joe Biden there, even though almost every one of us would have tried until we had no more to give to get him over the top in this election, and probably succeeded, in my view.

It's a little pollyannish, sure. Kamala Harris will be in her early 60's in a potential presidency, not exactly a new generation, and she won't exactly be posturing as a member of one, even though there certainly exists the potential that she'll be accepted to represent them.

But, she is a transitional figure who can bridge the understandings of the not so distant past struggles of America, with the promise of our new generations of Americans ahead in a way that assure she'll be right there with us.

Maybe that's more than many folks are actually thinking, but it's a sobering truth that there's only so far an octogenarian and a septuagenarian can take the nation. Hours ago, this was a contest between two aged men who could, would, work to shape the much of nation according to their own ideals, but couldn't really reside with those beyond their term.

This evening it's a sprint into the future; unbound by a valid but regressive debate about what we've accomplished, and firmly set on the future. No more tussling between political figures who are guardians and defenders of their past respective political landscapes.

What just happened?

There's an exhilarating sense that we've collectively opened a gate, stepped out with due haste and direction, and the world is wide open.

July 22, 2024

Joyful Warrior arrives at Kamala HQ (gives campaign launch speech)

Madam Auntie VP Kamala Harris for PRESIDENT! @flywithkamala
The Vice President & Second Gentleman are now in Delaware to meet campaign staffers at the #KamalaHarris HQ.





Hunter Schwarz @hunterschwarz 59s
New "Kamala" logo as seen at the Harris campaign headquarters in Wilmington, Delaware.



https://x.com/HowardMortman/status/1815484204940951704

https://x.com/GoldnerTV/status/1815486196677591425

The Joyful Warrior arrives at Kamala HQ! #KamalaHarris2024



https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1815497459042492625

watch event:




x.com/harryjsisson/status/1815499135266484456

July 22, 2024

VP Harris endorsement tally sf

Scott Dworkin @funder
BREAKING: Kamala Harris is now endorsed by 41 of 47 Dem Senators, 181 of 212 Dem Reps and 19 of 23 Dem Governors

Dworkin Substack:

UPDATE Endorsements for Harris:

Biden, Hillary and Bill Clinton, Pete Buttigieg, John Kerry

41 Senators: Baldwin, Bennet, Booker, Brown, Butler, Cantwell, Cardin, Carper, Casey, Coons, Cortez Masto, Duckworth, Durbin, Fetterman, Gillibrand, Hassan, Heinrich, Hickenlooper, Hirono, Kaine, Kelly, Klobuchar, Luján, Markey, Merkley, Murphy, Murray, Ossoff, Padilla, Peters, Rosen, Schatz, Shaheen, Smith, Stabenow, Van Hollen, Warner, Warnock, Warren, Whitehouse, Wyden

181 US Reps (updating list): Aguilar, Allred, Amo, Auchincloss, Balint, Barragán, Beatty, Bera, Beyer, Blunt Rochester, Bonamici, Bowman, Boyle, Brown, Brownley, Budzinski, Bush, Caraveo, Carbajal, Carson, Carter, Cartwright, Casar, Casten, Castor, Castro, Cherfilus-McCormick, Chu, Clark, Clarke, Cleaver, Clyburn, Cohen, Connolly, Courtney, Craig, Crockett, Crow, Davis, Dean, DeGette, DeLauro, DelBene, Deluzio, DeSaulnier, Dingell, Escobar, Evans, Fletcher, Foster, Frankel, Frost, Gallego, Garamendi, C. García, R. Garcia, S. Garcia, Goldman, Gomez, Gottheimer, Grijalva, Hayes, Horsford, Houlahan, Hoyer, Hoyle, Huffman, Ivey, Jeff Jackson, Jonathan Jackson, Jacobs, Jayapal, Johnson, Kamlager, Keating, Kelly, Khanna, Kildee, Kim, Krishnamoorthi, Landsman, Barbara Lee, Summer Lee, Susie Lee, Leger Fernandez, Levin, Lieu, Magaziner, Manning, Matsui, McBath, McClellan, McCollum, McGarvey, McGovern, McClellan, McColum, McLane Kuster, Meeks, Menendez, Meng, Mfume, Moore, Morelle, Moskowitz, Moulton, Mullin, Nadler, Neal, Neguse, Norcross, Ocasio-Cortez, Omar, Pallone, Pappas, Pascrell, Pelosi, Pettersen, Pingree, Pocan, Porter, Pressley, Quigley, Ramirez, Raskin, Ross, Ruiz, Ruppersberger, Ryan, Salinas, Sánchez, Sarbanes, Scanlon, Schakowsky, Schiff, Schneider, Scholten, Scott, Sewell, Sherman, Sherrill, Slotkin, Smith, Sorensen, Soto, Spanberger, Stansbury, Stanton, Stevens, Strickland, Swalwell, Sykes, Takano, Thanedar, Bennie Thompson, Mike Thompson, Titus, Tokuda, Tonko, Norma Torres, Ritchie Torres, Trahan, Trone, Underwood, Vasquez, Veasey, Velázquez, Wasserman Schultz, Waters, Watson Coleman, Wexton, Wild, Williams, Wilson

21 Governors: Beshear (KY), Carney (DE), Cooper (NC), Evers (WI), Green (HI), Healey (MA), Hochul (NY), Inslee (WA), Kelly (KS), Kotek (OR), Lamont (CT), Lujan Grisham (NM), Mills (ME), Moore (MD), Murphy (NJ), Newsom (CA), Polis (CO), Pritzker (IL), Shapiro (PA), Walz (MN), Whitmer (MI)

Almost all 50 Democratic party state chairs—some couldn’t vote for procedural reasons.

National Dem convention delegates from MD, NC, NH, TN and Denton County, TX unanimously voted, FL, Louisiana and SC voted to endorse and commit to Kamala Harris

Groups: AAPI Victory Fund, Congressional Black Caucus, Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, Emily’s List, End Citizens United, Haley Voters for Harris (formerly Nikki Haley Voters PAC), Human Rights Campaign, MoveOn, NewDem Action Fund, Young Democrats of America

https://www.dworkinsubstack.com/p/breaking-biden-endorses-kamala-harris

AP Delegate Tracker:

1,976 needed for nomination

Kamala
Harris

1,152 (and climbing)

Undecided

56

https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/ap-dnc-delegate-survey/

July 22, 2024

AP's Democratic Delegate Tracker (Harris/Undecided)

I held back on relying on this AP one this morning when it looked to be behind several others, but they've updated since.

This one has a delegate by state tracker, too.

I saw one report that said VP Harris expects to have this locked down by Wednesday, but I'd think sooner than that.

AP's delegate survey here: https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/ap-dnc-delegate-survey/

link: https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/ap-dnc-delegate-survey/

July 17, 2024

Respondents are being led by the pollsters to believe the selection process is open, and a dream candidate exists

...that makes these 'Democrats' expressing preference for another nominee in these surveys nothing more than a fantasy exercise.

The concern here isn't Joe Biden's fitness as president, at least that's the most blatantly absurd concern out there as we can all see Joe Biden doing the job of president with distinction, grace, and intelligence.

The main concern expressed, however contradictory to critic's and doubters' public bashing of the president, is that he can't beat Trump.

The surveys and the responses are little more than an artificially constructed bedwetter's clearinghouse for apathetic and ridiculously self-actualizing fears.

Joe Biden will be nominated before or during the convention. There is no other candidate who has even hinted of their desire or intent to challenge the votes which the president's delegates will represent at the convention in far greater numbers than any other person has or will be able to organize in these few short weeks.

The general election in November will be a binary choice between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. A sucessful incumbent, and a convicted felon.

I personally resent whoever is scheming to undo my vote.

I chose Joe Biden to run in this election, and it's more than a little discouraging to see so many in our own party do nothing but tear at his candidacy.

No candidate from them, no actual plan to win anything because, they're angling to completely subvert the democratic process of elections, pretending that our votes can be represented by shifting allegiances of delegates at the convention.

It's a small tyranny that's occurring with so many elected officials using the heavy hand of their offices to bear down on the people's choice. Joe Biden is running against the media, Trump, and members of his own party.

What makes anyone believe that another candidate, standing in the place of an effectively lame-duck president if he withdrew, would fare any better against the sly and pervasive opposition coming from all quarters right now?

Where's their record of accomplishment? Where's their experience in the complex world of affairs, both foreign and domestic?

Where do their allegiances lie? Do they represent the minority and women voters who put their faith in Joe Biden as president to effect their interests and ideals? Or will they compromise on those in a backward attempt to cover ground Joe Biden has already covered in a full primary?

How does a new candidate generate the support needed to win, against all of the same forces and more that Joe Biden is weathering right now, and organize their campaign in all 50 states with volunteer, canvassers, and advocates, all of whom are now operating out of over 100 field offices in support of the president?

Replacing Joe Biden right now is not only an abomination of democracy, it's foolishness and fantasy. You won't find that truth anywhere in these surveys. They're not designed or formatted in any way for supporters of President Biden.

They're designed to oppose him in this election, and that's the result they're prioritizing for the public participants in their fantasy election game.

July 10, 2024

If you're not presenting Democrats who've already voted with a candidate AND a plan, you're just trolling them

...knocking and yanking voters around, gaslighting Democrats who already chose Joe Biden to run in this election like you're in the opposition.

You might as well be, if you're on a whispering campaign trying to slyly undo the results of a primary election they had every chance of running in or challenging Joe Biden with their candidate.

As Joe Biden reminded Democrats in Congress in his letter which every one of them opened in their inbox and read Monday morning:

What President Biden left unsaid was the outrageous reality that NONE of these politicians who worked up their statements of regret, reconsideration, or remorse at the voter's choice in this election asked our opinion or permission, they're just roiling democracy in their own individual interests, not in some defense of the party or presidency.

We don't establish or defend presidencies in the U.S. by fiat of the political class. It's not populism to align yourself with the political elite as they work to undermine votes cast and won, many of those agreeing with their efforts even more amenable to their entreaties to undo the votes of millions of Democrats the more prominent and famous the opposition.

This movement against Joe Biden is without question, openly anti-voter, but it's also a tyranny against the democratic system of elections. It's an end run around the primary election system which was supposed to represent OUR participation in choosing our candidate in this election.

We already chose, but these pols and others are addressing Joe Biden as if he's supposed to give them cover for their sly scheme. We see them out here. Voters see these people who believe our votes are to be traded away by millionaires both in and out of office who use their elevated positions, OUR offices of government, as well, to attempt to speak over Democratic voters and down to them.

That's who these folks who are whispering that all of this undermining of democracy is normal and necessary are sidling up to, and cajoling others to just give in on behalf of.

Not the American people, but a handful of elite millionaires in and out of government who never asked one voter for their permission or support to relinquish our democratic rights. They never asked one of us if it was fine for them to meddle with votes cast (and it's too damn late now).

They just got in our faces and insisted it should be done.

That's not democracy in any form. It's authoritarianism and worse, and they will have to live with THAT abomination of democracy they participated in, whatever the outcome of this election.

July 10, 2024

How useful are early summer polls? About as useful as a groundhog with the weather.

NPR Illinois | By A.J. Simmons
Published June 5, 2024

I've previously delved into reading the early tea leaves about the November 2024 U.S. election, but I left out one crucial area: polling. I did so because March was way too early to be trying to make predictions based on polling. Even though we’re now a few months down the line, I hate to break it to you, and a lot of folks, but it’s still too early to be paying attention to polling! For your own sanity, I recommend you stop paying attention to polls until after Labor Day once Election Season (the nerdiest of all the sports seasons), and particularly the post-season kicks off. To put it in sports terms, traditionally the end of the major party conventions is Opening Day, post-season starts after Labor Day, and the championship round start in October. You don't have to take my word for it. Let’s look at polling data since 1980.

In six of the past 11 elections, early summer polling either got the ultimate winner “wrong”, though I’m not a huge fan of that language as opinion likely genuinely shifted, or showed a tie. Basically, early polling is about as accurate as a weather forecast from a groundhog when it comes to reflecting the winner. By September, this number drops to four out of 11. Once we reach October, only three out of 11 polls either got the winner “wrong” or showed a tie. In the two ties, the eventual winner caught up to the early “leader” by October. Further the two late polling ties proceeded election results with the popular vote and electoral college splitting, suggesting close elections make for difficult polling (and polls that have results within the margin of error are not “wrong”). Basically, polls in October do a better job of reflecting the eventual winner, but are not perfect as polls are not forecasts.



So, why might polling be less useful now than in four months? For starters, depending on the poll, about 10% to 20% of voters are still undecided. That's a significant portion of the electorate still deciding! Especially considering this election will likely come down to a few percentage points in a handful of states. I’d like to see more polling firms ask follow-up questions to undecided voters about which direction they’re leaning, especially as the election approaches. It may be that undecided voters strongly overlap with those who dislike both Presidents Biden and Trump. The critical question then becomes who they dislike more. As I’ve written about elsewhere, strength of dislike is a powerful motivator of vote choice these days considering voters dislike just about everything and everyone.

...remember that polls are not elections, and we're still five months out. A lot can change in that time. There is still time for an “October Surprise” (along with a June, July, August, September, and early November one). Considering the impact of major events on recent presidential elections, including the late October 2016 announcement from the FBI regarding Secretary Clinton’s emails and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, a lot can happen between now and November that may mean polling now does not match the result later this year.

In summary, using current polling to predict the election is like predicting a sports championship before the season starts. We’re still in the pre-season of the November 2024 election, so no matter who is “up” in the polls no one is “losing” or “winning”, no matter what your favorite cable news talking head is saying. Regardless of which campaign you support, don’t overreact to current polls. 2024 is most likely going to be a close one and surveys are allowed to have margins of errors, with several key states likely to have results reasonably within those margins of errors (which will probably be ignored by some prominently loud voices post-election). Plus, keep in mind that the further we are from the election, the higher the uncertainty in polling results. Otherwise, we’d be teaching about the Ross Perot administration in high school history. I must have missed that day.

https://www.nprillinois.org/community-voices/2024-06-05/how-useful-are-early-summer-polls-about-as-useful-as-a-groundhog-with-the-weather

July 6, 2024

No matter what, we need to vote in this upcoming election. "Don't Hold Grudges"

...against any eventual Democratic nominee

I was a little taken aback by a reply to a post of mine with an article calling Dems who try to oust Pres. Biden from the race, 'traitors.'

I'm already a little uneasy about representing that Politicus opinion piece here, but I think it's pretty sound.

What I'm even more concerned about is the anger I feel toward Dem legislators and others trying to bully Joe Biden out of the race is primarily based on two things.

1. The prospect of backdoor negotiations to second guess an actual democratic process that included an election and supplant our choice to run against Trump with their personal fav.

2. The way I believe that effort would lead to not only the collapse of a wildly successful Democratic presidency, but the disruption and evisceration of our chances to beat Trump.

I really don't want to argue those on this thread.

I want to advise those who feel as I do to make certain that, no matter what happens, they don't neglect to cast a ballot for our eventual Democratic nominee in November.

I understand the anger and frustration. I'm boiling over with it. But my ultimate goal is to beat Trump, not feather and nurse my own personal resentments.

Remember how hard the VP campaigned against her boss? I remember at one debate between the two there was a photo of close up of a notecard in Joe Biden's hand that read, "don't hold grudges."

That's what Joe Biden would have us do on his behalf, and ours as well. Fight these battles to keep us in a position to defeat Trump (hopefully still with the person we voted for), and move forward.

Remember that and vote for the Democratic nominee in November.