ncovington89
ncovington89's JournalReady for Plan B? Here it is.
Regardless of where the democratic primary goes, we Bernie supporters need to start on our 'Plan B': funding the campaigns of senators and congressmen who share our ideas. Brand New Congress is raising money right now for exactly this purpose. And, of course, it doesn't hurt to go to ActBlue and fund individuals like Zephyr Teachout, Tim Canova, and Pramila Jayapal, all our Berniecrats.
We've got to keep fighting.
Paths to Victory
Here are the possibilities for how Bernie could win:
1) He wins the majority of pledged delegates and thereby persuades superdelegates to vote for him.
Credibility: It would require him winning 60% of the remaining pledged delegates, which is feasible but a little unlikely.
2) He does not win the majority of pledged delegates but persuades superdelegates to vote for him anyway.
Credibility: There are several possible reasons this could happen: superdelegates may take into account the many signs of voter disenfranchisement and decide that the vote has not accurately picked up the will of the people, in which case the superdelegate must choose on other grounds. Polls, favorability ratings, and wide support from independents favor Bernie. Also: I have CNN interview credible people (i.e. Attorney Generals, former FBI personnel, etc.) who say in no uncertain terms that Hillary will be indicted. Reading what has been said, it's pretty bad. The FBI cannot allow people to believed that Clinton can outsmart them (they have a reputation to guard), so she will be indicted if she has done anything wrong, and I for one suspect that she is hiding something. An indictment or even the possibility of one may sway the superdelegates.
3) Bernie decides to run independent.
Credibility: This is only feasible in a four-candidate race. In other words: repubs end up with a split ticket between (say) Cruz and Trump. Then Bernie would be a fool not to run. However, as Trump will probably win the repub. nomination (in this guy's opinion, anyway) and since Trump's threatened third-party candidacy may be nothing beyond a threat, this is the least likely option so far...
Those are the paths to Victory. The 'Path to Failure' would involve Clinton successfully shaking off the FBI probe and also, at bare minimum, securing/keeping the superdelegates, a move that may be a bit harder than hrc and her fans assume.
I think the odds are in our favor. Feel the Bern.
An Open Letter to the Superdelegates
The following is a letter I am sending to the Superdelegates in my state. Feel free to forward this to the Superdelegates of your state, whose professional contact information may be found at Superdelegatelist.com.
Hi,
If the Democratic Party chose to collect money the way Mr. Bernie Sanders does (small individual donations) could be incredibly lucrative. The United States is home to over 200 million adults, about half of whom are democrats or democratic leaning independents. If 20% of democrats pledged a dollar a month to the party (one can easily set up automatic recurrent donations through ActBlue, for example) the Democratic Party could easily raise $240 million per year ($12 per year from 20 million people). Reaching out to Senator Sanders’ supporters and casting your vote as a super delegate would reinvigorate the party as these people can certainly be counted on for both monetary support and volunteer work. However, if Sanders does not win the nomination they will likely turn away from the Democratic Party, as 33% of them said they would never vote for Hillary Clinton [1] and probably even fewer would be willing to do anything for any political party that did not stand for the values they believe in.
One of the values they believe in is that politicians should be funded by the mass of voters who support them instead of corporations and affluent donors. This value, if practiced, could both (a) bring much financial support to the Party as previously argued, and (b) Confer the Democratic Party with a distinct advantage that no other party can claim: a disavowal of “big money.” A whopping 85% of Americans believe that “The political money system needs fundamental changes or a complete rebuild.” (2) If the Democratic Party chose to follow Mr. Sanders’ lead and be the first party “funded by the people and for the people” and also throw its weight behind candidates who believe the same, then it would have the potential for near limitless growth and support among voters for years to come. Bernie Sanders also stands as the more electable candidate. Consider:
– More independents have voted for Sanders than any other candidate (3). Independents constitute over 40% of Americans (4). Though independents have been largely disenfranchised during the primaries, this will of course not be the case in November.
– Multiple polls have shown that Clinton has an unfavorability rating well in excess of 50%, whereas Sanders does not. (5)
– Polls consistently show that in hypothetical match ups (“Would you vote for Donald Trump or Bernie Sanders if that was the choice?”) Bernie not only beats all Republican opponents but does so by a wider margin than Clinton. (6)
Make the right choice.
Afterword: I designed this letter with the intent of bringing to light issues that are especially relevant to a Superdelegates (who is typically a politician): future funding (which Bernie supporters would help,if embraced by democratic "elites"
, and electability. Write your Superdelegates a letter and tell them what they need to hear!
References
1. http://www.wsj.com/video/poll-33-of-sanders-supporters-wouldnt-vote-for-clinton/69C05055-85FE-4320-8D02-3EAC972CACD0.html
2. http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/06/03/411604682/americans-think-money-in-politics-is-a-problem-but-just-how-big
3. There is wealth of evidence to support this. 73% of Independents who
voted for a democratic candidate chose Sanders in New Hampshire:
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/primaries/NH
66% in Massachusetts:
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/primaries/MA
71% in Michigan:
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/primaries/MI
4. http://www.gallup.com/poll/180440/new-record-political-independents.aspx
5. A summary and citation of these polls can be found at:
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/06/poll-hillary-clinton-unfavorable-numbers-118532
6. Found in a survey conducted by CNN / ORC:
http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/01/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-poll/index.html
The result was corroborated by a poll conducted by NBC News and the Wall St. Journal:
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-sanders-outperforms-clinton-hypothetical-general-election-matchups-n520956
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Member since: Sun Apr 24, 2016, 02:59 AMNumber of posts: 17
