reasonabletexan
reasonabletexan's JournalTexas Keeps on Rockin (don't bother knockin!)
Early vote and absentee vote continue to blow the doors off in Texas.
The Secretary of State just publishes the 15 largest counties (and indeed, some are quite red). Regardless:
Day 9 (of 12) totals:
2016 3,311,159, or 33.93% of all registered voters
2012 2,430,874, or 28.09% of all registered voters
2008 2,390,051, or 28.25% of all registered voters
The key takeaway for me is that the total early and absentee votes in 2012 was 3,407,497 (39.38%) and in 2008 was 3,556,156 (42.03%). If we continue to add roughly 3-4% early vote for the last three days (and the last day of early voting is always the biggest), we will eclipse the 2008 percentages. Multiply this percentage with the total number of registered voters (which numbers swelled 12.8% since 2012), and we are looking at the potential for 45% early vote, which would be 4,391,908 early/absentee votes, almost ONE MILLION more than 2012.
That is a lot of votes!
http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/index.shtml
Remember folks
Every year at this time, it gets crazy and the whackadoodles come out of the woodwork.
Stick to what you know, do what you can, and realize she's got this.
An "OMG this is great" analysis of Harris County (Houston), Texas to date:
This work is mine, but I have used some spreadsheets from Charles Kuffner (offthekuff.com) and harrisvotes.org.
We are 8 days into our 12 days of early voting here in Texas. Harris County is continuing to blow the doors off.
First, some figures:
Total registered voters:
2,216,000 (roughly) - 2016
1,942,000 (roughly) - 2012
1,892,000 (roughly) - 2008
To date 2016 (including absentee): 640,503 (555,383 EV and 85,120 absentee)
To date 2012 (including absentee): 506,217 (429,186 EV and 57,031 absentee)
To date 2008 (including absentee): 422,846 (376,761 EV and 46,085 absentee)
Harris County has voted 28.9% of all its entire registered voters so far in 2016.
Harris County had voted 26.1% of its (much smaller) entire registered voters so far in 2012.
Harris County had voted 22.3% of its ((smaller) entire registered voters so far in 2008.
At the close of EV/absentee voting in 2012, Harris County had voted 39.42% of its registered voters.
At the close of EV/absentee voting in 2008, Harris County had voted 38.61% of its registered voters.
The net net takeaway is this: As far as those who are doom-casting turnout in highly diverse Harris County, they are wrong. We are on a record pace, and a total voter turnout of 1,400,000 to 1,450,000 is not unreasonable to forecast.
Judging from my facebook feed
Comey provided the last piece of the puzzle . . . something to fire up those who were thinking this thing is in the bag. The lines in Houston at the good early voting places are long.
Hey gang
I am an old member, but that was two law firms and a million passwords ago, so I had to reinvent myself.
Some may have known me as thevoiceofreason
Back in the day.
Anyhow, glad to be back.
Profile Information
Gender: MaleHometown: Houston, Texas
Home country: USA
Current location: Houston, Texas
Member since: Tue Oct 25, 2016, 10:34 AM
Number of posts: 40
