It's Time for Americans to Start Talking About "Soft Secession"

[Nevilledog]

https://cmarmitage.substack.com/p/its-time-for-americans-to-start-talking?utm_medium=ios

Behind closed doors, blue state leaders are planning. They’re war-gaming scenarios where federal agents show up and continue to transgress further and further past what is “legal.” Daily the courts are showing that that something is legal when Trump wants it to happen, and illegal when he doesn’t. How does a government function under these circumstance?

For many state Attorney Generals and Governors, the legal briefs are already drafted. The strategy sessions have been running since December. “We saw this coming, even though we hoped it wouldn’t,” former Oregon Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum told The 19th days after Trump’s inauguration.

This is what American federalism looks like in 2025: Democratic governors holding emergency sessions on encrypted apps, attorneys general filing lawsuits within hours of executive orders, and state legislatures quietly passing laws that amount to nullification of federal mandates. Oregon is stockpiling abortion medication in secret warehouses. Illinois is exploring digital sovereignty. California has $76 billion in reserves and is deciding how to deploy it. Three sources on those daily Zoom calls between Democratic AGs say the same phrase keeps coming up, though nobody wants to say it publicly: soft secession.

Not the violent rupture of 1861, but something else entirely. Blue states building parallel systems, withholding cooperation, and creating facts on the ground that render federal authority meaningless within their borders.

*snip*

[Paladin]

1. Whatever it takes. (nt)

[rzemanfl]

2. K & R.

[keep_left]

3. What's more, the signs have been visible for some time.

The "blue states" have been quietly opting out of the most regressive and reactionary law and policy favored by the MAGA chuds (and before them, the "Tea Party" movement, etc.).

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100220108758#post11

It started with things like sanctuary cities, ignoring FDA scheduling of cannabis, the devolution of abortion law to the states, and other similar movements over the last 20 years or so. And the ties that bind were further stressed by the Trump regime's disastrous mismanagement of Covid...I really wonder what the country is going to look like in another 20 years.

https://democraticunderground.com/100219688375#post12
https://democraticunderground.com/100219672176#post3
https://democraticunderground.com/100219025512#post26
https://democraticunderground.com/100219019557#post2

Years ago, there was even a video game, Shattered Union, which was based on a worst-case Civil War 2.0 scenario.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100218111552#post23

?si=JQwTiozBzJkiMJGx

[Jack Valentino]

49. Sounds like a fun 'video game', but I don't want to do it for real....

[keep_left]

53. Yeah, no kidding. For what it's worth...

...I heard that it wasn't a great game, either. I'm not big into video games, so I never played this one. But I remember it being featured on a few liberal/left shows and podcasts, including Liberty News TV, a show which got some attention back in the early days of DU.

[Fiendish Thingy]

4. Their plans better include creating a state militia beyond federal control. Nt

[Karasu]

9. This is one of the reasons why I'm more in favor of blue states joining with Canada or any number of European

Last edited Sun Aug 24, 2025, 03:59 PM - Edit history (1)

countries rather than sovereign statehood, which no state besides California could effectively pull off anyway. It would definitely be much easier to develop this sort of thing with another country's/countries' aid and protection.

States like Vermont and the entire West Coast, at the very least, I think are very much at a point where they really ought to stop treating the idea of joining Canada as a joke or a complete impossibility.

[MadameButterfly]

16. Do you think Canada would agree to war

with the US, which would surely result from this?

[Celerity]

22. IF it's a Rethug POTUS in charge & multiple Blue States tried to join with Canada, they would threaten Canada with nukes

and also the Blue secessionist States, if need be, especially the big ones (population-wise) like CA, IL, NY, MA, WA, MD, CO, CT, MN, OR, and NJ, plus IF you count them as 'Blue', and IF they tried to secede (which is NOT a given at all), PA and MI as well. No way would WI, VA, NC, and VA vote to leave, the Rethugs are far too dug in at State government level to do so.

Also (and far more likely) a MAGAt POTUS would attack conventionally with the US Armed Forces.

Trump and the next MAGAt POTUS's after him are and/or will be crazy enough to do all that.

The only way to stop them would be through another extra-constitutional action (the secession of some States being the first), a military coup d'état.

[MadameButterfly]

29. Yes, in the end

one way or the other, the military will decide

Trump wont accept losing, and we can't

[Fiendish Thingy]

32. Regardless, the question of secession was resolved in 1865. Nt

[Celerity]

41. Resolved in terms that it VERY likely would be met with kinetic violence by the US Armed Forces.

If that is what you meant, then I absolutely agree.

No way would the Red States (many of them 'taker' States) allow the golden egg-laying Blue Sates (the massive 'giver' States) just walk away.

[Gordcanuck]

83. With one civil war in your country's past do you

really believe there is appetite for another? Win or lose we will still be here and dealing with the aftermath. You’ll be better off resolving your nation’s problems solo. I’m not curbsiding you. Just realize that an srmed conflict will see all others, friend or foe, on the sidelines due to risk in the warfare of this era.

[Disaffected]

17. Fugetaboutit

It ain't gonna happen. Why on earth would Canada wish to get embroiled in such a mess??

[canetoad]

27. Canada is a Commonwealth member

I don't think it's quite as simple as just saying you're going to join Canada.

[Hekate]

40. People say a lot of foolish things, don't they? Sometimes in the heat of the moment & others in wishful thinking....

I just asked someone why would Mexico want to be saddled with Texas — well, the same goes with Canada.

Canada’s a stable and sensible country, with challenges of their own they are working on — California all by itself has nearly as many people as Canada. Why in gods’ name would they want us and our stupid guns? And I say this as a Californian who loves where I am.

[GP6971]

46. Well, it should be!!! Just Joking!!

How you doing? Getting the gardens ready??

[canetoad]

47. Hey GP

Good to see you bro. I've just done another - my final - move. Into a unit - not far from where I was. Loving it and starting a small garden here. Weather has been great and it's still winter.

Hope things are well with you.

[GP6971]

50. We're doing well. We had a good harvest this year.

Predictions so far look for a mild winter. Sure hope so.

Stay well and stay safe!!

[brakester]

75. Wow! You two sound

like interesting people and fellow gardeners.

Canetoad: Where is it still winter?

I'm from the south and have had the best garden ever this year!

[Fiendish Thingy]

31. The question of secession was resolved in 1865

I’m not suggesting a state would need a militia to facilitate secession, only to serve as a counter to the federal government using the military against its own citizens.

Just well armed enough to give pause to the fascist impulses of a select few, as well as encouraging reflection amongst federal troops regarding whether to follow unlawful orders or not.

[msongs]

44. western WA and OR can go candian and dump the red state parasite eastsiders nt

[Joinfortmill]

5. Excellent and hopeful. Thank you.

[Borogove]

6. Maybe I won't have to move to Canada after all.

[Mister Ed]

93. And after all, things are quite mimsy where you are.

[pecosbob]

7. Successful revolutions require dual power

the creation of directly democratic structures such as worker cooperatives, people’s assemblies, and mutual aid networks that challenge state and capitalist power while prefiguring a self-managed society.

[lonely bird]

8. While I get the point...

This is precisely what the PRC and Russia want.

And the world will devolve into further instability and further authoritarianism.

[Hornedfrog2000]

19. Yup, more like time to talk about

Kicking russian-republicans, and putin the fuck out of our country

[Midnight Writer]

10. Other countries around the world are also seceding from our economic and strategic spheres.

Last edited Sun Aug 24, 2025, 03:54 PM - Edit history (2)

Nobody wants to play this game where lunatic trump has all the power and makes all the rules up on the fly.

Frankly, there is no reason why they should continue to play this game.

I consider myself a patriot. I love this country, in spite of its flaws. But this current Administration needs to fail. It needs to crash and burn so badly that the next time we face this threat people will remember the last time and reject this bullshit.

We may be the biggest game right now, but we are not the only game. Other countries are making new trade pacts and defense alliances with each other and bypassing the USA. They don't need this shit any more than we do.

[calimary]

11. Is it wrong that I'm smiling?

[The Madcap]

12. Maybe it's time for the end of superpowers

After T**** and Putin are finished ruining the US and Russia, China will be the only one left. And they have issues as well.

[Hekate]

64. China certainly has "issues" but they are very, very long-range planners. In the South Pacific...

…they have been building landing strips on any piece of rock above water and claiming it for China. They have a long-held notion that anyone of Chinese ancestry anywhere in the world is “Overseas Chinese” even if they don’t want to be. They have factories in parts of Africa (sorry I don’t have a link — it was in a convo with a friend) — that are no more happy places to be than the ones in China. They are buying real estate in the US.

All of this is long-standing behavior. President Obama was right.

[Prairie Gates]

13. Talking about it? I've been doing it since 2016!

[kimbutgar]

14. I've been paying into social security since 1973 and plan on collecting next year.

What happens to the money we contributed if we secede from the orange fascist regime?

[MadameButterfly]

20. I just started collecting SS

and I'm worried either way. If Trump becomes full fledged dictator, I don't see how SS survives.

I don't really see how we stop paying Federal taxes no matter what the states do, and if Trump withholds Federal funds from Blue states, SS is just another step down that road. I hope there is something the Blue states can withhold to prevent this, but I don't see what that is yet. General strike???

Military options will get us nowhere. They have the arsenal. No Harper Ferry raid in our sights. But I wouldn't mind a well trained state militia as deterrence (state National Guard?).

My hope is that this resistance is a temporary thing, a resistance to stop fueling the dictatorship. And when it falls, we put things back together again better than before.

[Blaukraut]

21. Been thinking about this

And it infuriates me that there is no way for blue states to ‘withhold’ federal taxes, but the federal government can stop funding us. The only way this gets resolved is via the courts or a hot civil war. Good luck with either option 😔

[Tree Lady]

61. Federal taxes are paid through

Your job, it would be a matter of the states telling the companies in their state not to pay it and they would protect them from fines.

I pay federal taxes out of our pension, but our pension is from the state of CA where hubby used to work, they could withhold it.

So there is a way to stop it but Trump would declare war and bring in the military.

[Freddie]

76. I'm a payroll admin

If an employer is late paying withheld federal taxes and FICA, the penalties are not pleasant.

[TexasBushwhacker]

79. They can close a business down if they want

I had a client with a small pool maintenance business - less than 10 employees. He let his alcoholic wife handle payroll and payroll tax deposits. She did the payroll, but spent the payroll tax money, often on booze. He was a drinker too, but more "functional". First she died, then he found out the IRS had been sending collection letters. He will be paying the IRS for the rest of his life.

[Freddie]

82. Yup, they don't get mad, they get even

[SickOfTheOnePct]

87. In this scenario...

...the business is protected by the state, but who is going to protect the individual employee when they have to come up with their entire federal tax bill in April?

Withholding federal taxes from the federal government is a pipe dream.

[summer_in_TX]

23. Social Security is a huge concern.

Soft secession is a great idea – if they can figure out these life or death matters for seniors. And of course the fact that blue state money is currently a big support to Social Security, and what happens to Americans unlucky enough to live in a red state if the blue states begin withholding contributions to the federal government – which would inevitably include that. Plus I'm sure other complications we haven't thought of yet.

[MadameButterfly]

69. What happens to red states without our money

is low on my concerns. Of course there are blue voters there, and even the Republicans don't understand what they've done, but since they caused it they need to experience the results for anything to change.

[summer_in_TX]

85. I'm one of hundreds of thousands of blue voters in red states.

I agree that experiencing natural consequences is important, although we will be harmed greatly ourselves as will people we love.

I'm actually thinking of the idea that the blue states form their own compact and have their own social security system. But where does that leave us as we start a brand-new social security system that hasn't had time to build financial resources to back it? (In the back of my mind, I realize we may want to escape to one of the blue states one day ourselves.)

[MadameButterfly]

86. As we are all being harmed by the votes of Trumpers.

Your idea about state social security does appeal to me, though there is the practical problem that the money we have paid in all our lives is stuck in the federal system. Republicans would happily pocket that money while we start from scratch. It would take a long time for benefits to build up to what we are used to.

Losing all the people like you in red states also hurts us in the long run. How do we turn states purple if states are turning bluer and redder, respectively. It's like the gerrymandered districts turning more one or the other. It ends up being less representative and you get more radical politicians who only worry about primaries. In the past states have evolved, but that would end, and leave us chronically short by a couple of states in the Senate and the electoral college.

[summer_in_TX]

89. I agree. The talk of blue states seceding I hope is just that.

What I do find interesting is an idea floating around about a "soft secession."

In Deport Republicans: A Practical Guide, The Existential Republic's Chris Armitage says "They want mass deportations? Give them economic deportation. Blue states subsidize red states to the tune of hundreds of billions annually. Time to end it."

Start with federal tax resistance. Not individual but institutional. California's franchise tax board "accidentally" delays federal transfers. New York's banking system develops "technical difficulties" processing federal revenues. Illinois has "compatibility issues" with IRS systems. Make the federal government sue for every dollar.

[snip…]

We can go so much further than finances.

Texas criminalizes reproductive healthcare? Their medical licenses become void in California. Florida persecutes doctors for treating trans kids? They can't practice in New York. Red state medical schools lose accreditation partnerships. Their residency programs lose access to blue state hospitals.

[snip…]

The playbook exists. Flood the zone. Pass everything at once. Because we are fighting for actual freedom. Freedom of speech, religion, and due process, bodily autonomy, collective bargaining, and truly so many other things people take for granted.

We can pass laws to protect all the freedoms Republicans hate, all simultaneously. Make them sue to stop each one. While they're in court over healthcare, pass consumer protections. While they challenge that, start the wealth tax. Never stop. Never comply. Just keep governing.

I hope leaders in blue states are seriously thinking about strategies like these.

[mike_c]

37. I now believe that Trump will attack SS and Medicare...

...as soon as he consolidates enough power to no longer care about senior support. He will use it for leverage first, then the cuts will come. My wife and I depend on SS. We're very worried.

[thought crime]

42. Remember that MAGA followers depend on SS & Medicare, too.

The main thing to worry about are "stealth" attacks that MAGA followers don't understand, like attempts to let SS laws expire each year or a "Grand Bargain" that is supposedly bi-partisan. But most likely Trump will just kick the can down the road and do nothing to shore up SS funding. It will be an issue in 2028.

[AverageOldGuy]

67. I have pointed out to MAGA friends . . .

When they start talking about “socialism and communism” I remind them that they are using SS and Medicare. Their response is that both SS and. Medicare are “full of cheats and fraud” and it would be a good thing for both programs to go away thereby punishing the “cheaters”.

The lies that MAGAts believe are simply astounding.

[MadameButterfly]

71. I figure we have until the midterms at least

He won't rock the boat before that critical election.
At best he'll leave it alone and allow be cuts down the road. Or he just won't save the program, and will continue ways to undermine it so it looks like it dies on it's own.
But since it usually turns out worse than we imagine, I could see him destroying the whole thing and pocketing the money on some whim. Not understanding that people won't keep paying in if there are no payouts. Will there be anyone to explain that to him?
Or, most likely I think, he'll target seniors in Blue states.

Despite my logic above, I have to live as if SS will continue. At my age i see no way to replace that money, and the worry accomplishes nothing. Millions of people are in that boat. The economy of the country depends on us buying stuff instead of roaming the streets. We have to trust in the power of that. We will prevail.

[Fil1957]

15. Some good news for a change...

[orangecrush]

18. Better hurry

[AllaN01Bear]

24. ive been having this idear in my head that ca , origon and washington . nevada and parts of id

leave and create a new nation called pacifica. wed be the 7th largest economy in the world

[AllaN01Bear]

25. would love to see mex take back tx , parts of gila bend , etc.

[Hekate]

36. What did Mexico ever do to deserve getting saddled with Texas?

Just sayin’

[BadgerMom]

55. California was once part of Mexico.

I always find it interesting that these thought experiments link California and Canada. We are Norte California.

[Hekate]

57. Exactly. We have a long relationship with Mexico and its people. We have Californians w Spanish names...

…whose families go back hundreds and hundreds of years in California.

Not everybody in modern times who comes here for work wants to stay forever, but the border situation on the US side has made it dangerous to go back and forth. Yes, it is the US that has made it dangerous. But workers come here, and we need their labor as much as they need the jobs we provide. They work hard, they send money home, and they pay taxes every time they buy anything in the US.

I find the way our government treats the Mexicans and Central & South Americans to be despicable.

[BadgerMom]

58. I grew up here. I went to school with kids from Mexico.

Certainly many of my friends and peers had parents from Mexico. Innumerable students of mine with Mexican heritage, Spanish place names, Mexican food, a part of Mexico named Baja California—linking California to Canada is a stretch. To me, a non-Hispanic Californian, it reeks of racism. But I hope I’m wrong.

[Hekate]

59. For many it is simply blind ignorance. Canadians speak English, right? Ha. They also speak French...

If we took better care to educate our own, we’d be bilingual English & Spanish, and not look at Spanish as a second-class language.

[BadgerMom]

60. Absolutely!

[bucolic_frolic]

26. The British Commonwealth

is more our friend than MAGA Republicans, imho. Could the US break up piecemeal?

[thought crime]

39. MAGA might go for it

I'd like it, but if some blue states exit MAGA could solidify power (e.g. Senate) in the remaining states. This would be horrible for Democrats/Lefties in those remaining states and MAGA would be an even greater danger to the world.

I'd love it if British Commonwealth countries welcomed Americans as residents, though. Unfortunately, I think they're wise to that.

[roamer65]

28. If Florida can declare gold and silver legal tender, Michigan can declare the Canadian dollar legal tender.

We should do so immediately.

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

43. No Michigan can't

Article 1, Sec 10 gives states the right to make gold and silver coin legal tender. They cannot declare anything else legal tender.

No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts; pass any Bill of Attainder, ex post facto Law, or Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts, or grant any Title of Nobility.

[brakester]

80. Good point!

What about Bitcoin?

Isn't our chud pres and his followers doing just that??

[roamer65]

92. Let's do it anyway.

Just for fun and their money is nicer looking.

[customerserviceguy]

33. Of course, it could not look exactly like 1861

We have communications abilities that couldn't have been dreamed of then.

The question is, will Trump go along with secession? The answer revolves around whether the seceding areas lose representation in Congress. If the latter is the case, it will probably happen.

[AllaN01Bear]

34. take 2. didnt like the way the earlier post flowed.

years ago on here i had posted and said that my late mom said that she was shown many different maps of the usa when she was a child .this was in the 1930s. so is possible may be happenig?

[Hekate]

35. I hope to God this is true & that it works...

… and that no one ever says again that Democrats take a knife (or a feather pillow) to a gun fight.

This is the fight of our lives.

[Hekate]

38. Bookmarking for the article and all the links from DUers. Thanks, all.

[brakester]

81. This has been

a lively discussion, hasn't it?

It really has my mind churning and my mood soaring!!

Thanks to everyone here for contributing. I am feeling a deep connection to this community.

[hadEnuf]

45. We've got to do something.

We can't go on like this, that's for sure.

The red states have been arming to the teeth for years while we've been pushing for gun control. (Gun control is great, but not in this situation we may be facing). A way to tell the Trump government to "peacefully" shove it would be a great thing.

[RedWhiteBlueIsRacist]

48. Wouldn't be difficult at all to relabel the "United" States to: The "Untied" States!

[keep_left]

54. That was actually the title of a book written in 2005...

...during the second GWB administration. Little did we know back then that things could get even worse!

The Untied States of America: Polarization, Fracturing, and Our Future, by Juan Enriquez

https://www.amazon.com/Untied-States-America-Polarization-Fracturing/dp/0307237524

[RedWhiteBlueIsRacist]

56. Wow. Book looks interesting!

[MrWowWow]

51. Necessity is the Mother of Invention

War is the mother of all things, and is the chief organizing principle of Civilization.

[tanyev]

52. Good, good, good.

The legal foundation for soft secession was written by conservative justices who never imagined blue states would use it. Yale Law Professor Heather Gerken calls it “uncooperative federalism.” States don’t have to actively resist. They can simply refuse to help. And without state cooperation, much of the federal government’s agenda becomes unenforceable.

[paulkienitz]

62. The states will have to be real states again

I've been thinking that blue states might have to create their own supplements or replacements for things like medicaid or social security... now it looks like they might have to do that kind of work on a much broader front.

[Cha]

63. Wow Again.. This is uber Encouraging...

TY

[raccoon]

65. A-fucking-men!

[mwooldri]

66. If you want to talk about a soft secession....

... then looking at why Brexit happened can teach some lessons to those hoping for such a secession.

While people can say Russian interference played a part, I'd argue that personal identity also played a big part. Many English Brits didn't think of themselves as European - British first, English second, European last. If there was a stronger sense of European identity in the UK, then Brexit may well not have happened. Or even come up in the first place.

While building parallel institutions is helpful, there has to be cultural changes too. The population of any given state would need to identify themselves by the state first, USA second.

I suppose the ultimate in soft secession would be the establishment of a state central bank with a state issued currency with actual physical banknotes. Each State Dollar would initially equal one US Fed Dollar and be backed $ for $. States could then build up gold reserves. Doing this can be a hedge against inflation - if the federal reserve starts printing money and the US $ depreciates significantly then the state dollar can be decoupled and revalued against the US dollar. I bet folks would rather use a state dollar backed by gold or something like that in a case like this.

[Magoo48]

68. Yes, yes yes. We must endeavor to make the orange one as an irrelevant as possible.

[Native]

70. Do you know anything about this author? I mean this is all very encouraging if true, but

Do we know anything about his sources, his credibility, Etc.

[progressoid]

72. I found this:

I'm not sure of his sources, credibility etc.

https://www.amazon.com/stores/author/B09XKTT4LM/about


Christopher Armitage

About the author

Chris Armitage is a seasoned United States Air Force veteran with a Master of Science Degree in Homeland Security. Alongside his publication "Human Trafficking: What it is and how you can end it," he has authored "Bad Cop Not Donut." Chris serves as an advisor and consultant, and his focus extends to spearheading research on leveraging emerging technology for the advancement of law enforcement, anti-human trafficking initiatives, and innovative collaborative models. His independent research has encompassed Disaster Preparedness, Emergency Response, and Human Trafficking across the United States, South America, and Eastern Asia.

[Nevilledog]

78. He's an author with law enforcement background.

Here's one of his books



https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/237853325-conservatism

[gfarber]

73. Soft secession

In blue states, the leaders convene,
On Zoom calls where talk stays unseen.
"Soft secession," they say,
As they plan for the day
When the law serves just one man's machine.

Behind doors where the signal is clear,
Blue states brace for the coming frontier.
With the courts now in thrall,
They prepare for the fall—
Soft secession, once whispered, draws near.

The law bends wherever he's king,
And justice now hangs by a string.
In silence they plot,
What choice have they got?
When the center can’t hold anything.

[dlilafae]

74. Im ready to pass that

And go straight to revolutionizing Washington. I'm tired of paying for this regimes whims, that benefit THEM only. Back's broken in seven: let THEM fund their own ideals.

[Wicked Blue]

77. Shhh!

These sound is SO encouraging. But I feel uncomfortable seeing this info out in public.

[carpetbagger]

84. Hard secession would be more effective.

The U.S. Army and the U.S. Supreme Court can make fried bear chops out of any attempt to assert autonomy. And they will. Calexit wins a referendum, my guess is the response is good riddance.

[MadameButterfly]

88. They'll make fired bear chops

of any attempt to secede. They have the tanks. They won't give up the west coast, Hollywood, San Francisco, the universities they want to take over.....they don't hate what California is, they are jealous. They'd be happy to truly own it.

[carpetbagger]

90. On the other hand....

1. Trump, GOP leaders, and most MAGATs outwardly say that California is a drain on America. Even if they know otherwise, they are painted in that corner.

2. The carrot is generational control of federal government without having to do the unpleasantries of overturning elections.

3. Putin would send all the trolls out for this one.

I think acceptance by the federal government is realistic.

[MadameButterfly]

91. They know its not a drain

but you are right, we'd never win another national election without California. I hadn't thought of that incentive.
I still think they'll go for overturning elections and keeping California.
However, I don't think California would leave the rest of us without their electoral votes. They won't fair well even independent if next door Dems are doomed by the loss of California votes.
Either we all secede or nobody does.
And of course we are just playing here, we know it won't happen.