Defenders of the Electoral College say that it protects small states from big states by giving them a voice. Ask them...

when was the last time in your lifetime that either major party campaigned for the presidency in Indiana, Missouri, Tenn, Idaho, Mississippi, Louisiana, Mass, CT, Utah, Oregon, Washington, North Dakota, South Dakota, Arkansas, New Mexico, South Carolina, Maryland, or Illinois?

**Must Watch** David Pakman - Cult expert explains the Trump cult

NYTimes Siena Poll: Trump 48 Harris 47

New Poll Suggests Harris’s Support Has Stalled After a Euphoric August

It's not easy defeating Donald Trump. We should cut Hillary a lot of slack and give higher praise to Pres. Biden.

Trump is not an easy politician to defeat because he doesn't represent policy ideas or even an agenda. It's all about him and whatever his followers project onto him. In NC, Mark Robinson (Republican) is running for governor. Robinson is a variant of Trump through and through. Yet, Robinson is getting losing by almost 10 points in the polls while Trump is running ahead of Harris by 1%. Why are the voters rejecting Robinson but still support Trump? They're literally the same candidate.

And that's the issue. Support for Trump defies all reason, all logic. It's pure emotion. It's pure projection. Hardly any politician that copies his style sees any success. Trump out performs his variants, Kari Lake (AZ), Herschel Walker (GA), Doug Mastriano(PA), Blake Masters (AZ).

Beating him is not easy. You cannot appeal to reason. You have to motivate your base, max out turnout, and plead with the few voters on the fence. Dick Cheney is a villain in every way, but getting his endorsement may sway a PA suburban voter. That's what this race is going to be about. Harris, like Hillary and Biden, is by far the better candidate, but you cannot rely on that to win.

Someone call HR

We have a workplace conflict

https://x.com/CatWorkers/status/1832106178610131317

I will send you $100 if you can explain Trump's answer to what policies he would do to make child care affordable.

If you ever wanted to know what a Trump speech sounds like away from his mouth breathing followers...

you should check out his speech today in NYC on C-Span. Below are clips:

https://x.com/atrupar/status/1831738254195818712

https://x.com/atrupar/status/1831734380353470882

Great clip from Star Trek: Strange New Worlds

I'm loving this show.

Pennsylvania is starting to worry me. Big time.

A lot of polling analysis compares a state like PA to what happened in 2016 and 2020 on the presidential level. IMHO, this is not the most robust analysis. A better analysis would be to look at the most recent statewide federal elections results which would be the 2022 midterms.

Recall that in 2022 Biden was near the nadir of his popularity. Inflation was raging out of control and interest rates were soaring. Yet, in PA, both Democrats for senate and the governorship won their elections rather easily without either candidate benefitting from incumbency.

A Trafalgar Oct. 2002 poll showed Shapiro winning by 9.3%. Shapiro won by 15%. That same poll showed Fetterman winning by 2.4%. Fetterman won by almost 5%. Both Shapiro and Fetterman won with 56% and 51% respectively of the vote. In today's politics those are both blowout wins and shows that the state is trending hard towards the Democrats. Their Republican opponents, Doug Mastriano and Mehmet Oz, were both endorsed by Trump and he campaigned vigorously for both of them. They were ideologically aligned with Trump in every way. Mastriano stormed the capitol on 1/6.

So, how is it that in a key state that went for Biden, Shapiro, and Fetterman over the last two major statewide elections now show a either Trump winning the state or it being tied. Across every single policy measure, there's no real difference between Harris, Biden, Fetterman, and Shapiro. How can the same electorate vote against Doug Mastriano so strongly turn around and now support Trump? You voted against the guy that stormed the capitol in 2022, but you're voting for the guy that incited the people to storm the capitol in 2024? That doesn't make any sense.

There are two possible explanations:

1. The pollsters are boosting Trump's support. It could be that they don't want to be seen as under-counting Trump's support which happened in both 2016 and 2020. It could be that they want to curry favor with Republican campaigns. Or, it could be that this is an election strategy. Show Trump winning and it boosts turnout.

2. The other explanation is that this is pure sexism and misogyny. Obama, Biden, Shapiro, Fetterman, and Harris are all the same flavor of Democrat. They've either served with one another or at least campaigned with one another. There's little policy differences between them. The only difference is that Harris is a woman.

This is what scares me. A state that should be a slam dunk is now a tossup. Please talk me down.


Sources
Trafalgar poll - https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/TRF-PA-General-1013-Full-Report.pdf
2022 PA midterm results - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Pennsylvania_elections
2024 PA polls - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/pennsylvania/

Why would any Biden 2020 voter switch to Trump in 2024?

For any anti-Trump voter in 2020, there's little to nothing that Trump has done since to change your mind. In fact, he's only gotten worse. He incited a riot on the capitol, stole classified documents, and has been convicted of federal crimes.

Any pro-Biden voter in 2020 should be firmly in Harris' camp in 2024.