LiberalFighter

LiberalFighter's Journal

May 2, 2016

Bernie Sanders begins making case to Hillary Clinton’s superdelegates

Yahoo 5-1-2016

Sanders pointed out that although he won Washington state’s Democratic caucuses by 46 points (73 percent to 27 percent) and 25 of the state’s 36 pledged delegates, Clinton has the support of 10 of Washington’s Democratic unpledged superdelegates.

But no mention of the states that Clinton won. If it was applied by the same rational to both sides Clinton would receive 374 while Sanders would be limited to 143. But that was not the purpose of the automatic delegates.

“Let’s be clear,” Sanders said. “It is virtually impossible for Secretary Clinton to reach the majority of convention delegates by June 14 — the end of the primary season — with pledged delegates alone. She will need superdelegates to take her over the top at the convention in Philadelphia. In other words, it will be a contested convention.”

So Sanders is also pushing for the "Convoluted Math" like some of the Bernies over in the other group.

It is doubtful that the delegates supporting Hillary will switch over to Sanders when he has been a jerk towards them.

May 1, 2016

Based on the most recent Indiana poll. (50-46)

Using proportional application of delegates at each level it would be HC: 45 - BS: 38.
--
Using proportional application on total delegates it would be HC: 43 - BS: 40.
The 50 - 46 poll equates to a 52% - 48% equivalence.

Hillary will get between 43 and 45 delegates out of 83.
Sanders will get between 38 and 40 delegates.

Including only Pledged Delegates [Majority is 2,026]:
Hillary -: [1,665 + 45] 1,710 - - Need: 316 -- Advantage: 302 Delegates
Sanders: [1,370 + 38] 1,408 - - Need: 618

Pledged Delegates remaining: 933

Including Automatic Delegates [Majority is 2,383]:
Hillary -: [PD 1,710 + AD 489] 2,199 - - Need: 184 -- Advantage: 750 Delegates
Sanders: [PD 1,408 + AD 41 ] 1,449 - - Need: 934

Total Delegates remaining: PD 933 + AD 183 = 1,116
Percent Needed:
-- Hillary -: 16.5%
-- Sanders: 83.7%

Using Convoluted Majority Method *
Percent of Pledged Delegates needed to reach the Convoluted Majority:
-- Hillary -: 72.1%
-- Sanders: 104.5%

* Convoluted Majority Method involves using the majority of both Pledged Delegates (4,051) and Automatic Delegates (714) which totals 4,765. But requiring only Pledged Delegates to reach that majority.

Indiana has 9 congressional districts. There are two with 8 delegates, one with 7 delegate, three with 6 delegates, and three with 5 delegates.

Unless there is a 12.5% spread in the votes for districts with 8 delegates it is likely to split 4-4. CD1 is in the Lake County area (near Chicago) and CD7 is in Indianapolis. I think at least one of them will split in Hillary's favor. But instead of a 2 delegate advantage as it was in 2008 it will be a 3 delegate advantage.

The spread in the votes for districts with 6 delegates would need to be 16.6% otherwise the split would be 3-3. The districts are the 2nd, 8th, and 9th. The 8th and 9th would likely be the best for Sanders. But Clinton won the popular vote in all three of the districts in 2008 with the 8th and 9th by wide margins enough to get a two delegate advantage in both of them.

Districts with only 5 delegates will likely split 3-2. Clinton won CD4 and CD 6 in 2008 with Obama winning CD3. If Sanders has a chance of winning one it would be in the 3rd. Basing that only on Fort Wayne as a major city and with IPFW. But I don't think IPFW has the same draw as other universities for Sanders.

CD5 with 7 delegates has a chance of going Sanders with UAW members. But retirees could possibly pull it out for Clinton. Retirees outnumber actives by a considerable margin.

Obama won the following counties: Allen, Boone, Elkhart, Hamilton, Lake, Marion, Monroe, St Joseph, Tippecanoe. There are 92 counties in Indiana.

2008 Primary Recap
Clinton's advantage by districts were CD6 3-2, CD8 4-2, CD9 4-2.
Obama's advantage by districts were CD7 4-2.
The At Large delegates split 8-8 and the PLEO delegates split 5-4 for Clinton.

Total results were Clinton: 38 - Obama: 34
Popular votes were Clinton: 646,282 - Obama: 632,073

Profile Information

Gender: Male
Hometown: Wisconsin
Current location: NE Indiana
Member since: 2002
Number of posts: 50,912

About LiberalFighter

Member since 3/21/2002. I have been interested in politics since the early 70's. I registered to vote by riding my bicycle to the nearest registration site while still in high school. The first time I voted was with my parents. By the general election, I was in college and voted absentee. During the Watergate hearing I was in college and watched the hearings. I have only voted for a Republican once. And it was due to the endorsement of the local union's political group. It was for the position of the county sheriff. I have never missed voting in an election. Both primary and general. I have voted in at least 69 elections. Political Science and History was my focus in college. I became more involved in politics in 1987 with the mayor's campaign helping at headquarters. It was at this time that I became a precinct committee person. In a couple of years I was involved in setting up the database for a congressional campaign due to Quayle becoming VP and Dan Coats was appointed as Quayle's replacement. I have attended many Democratic State Conventions and other Democratic fundraisers and events.

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