yardwork
yardwork's JournalThe economy is just an excuse for most Trump voters
We're seeing a lot of blame placed on the Harris campaign for not talking about how so many people are still hurting, economically. But, I heard her talk about that, and her plans to help people.
Then I look at the people I know who supported Trump. Not one of them is hurting economically. Many of them are wealthy. They are wealthy, privileged white men and women with professional jobs, or they're retired in comfort, with SS and investment income.
They are also, I know for a fact, racist. And they have very old-fashioned ideas about women's roles. They were never going to vote for a Black and Asian woman. In fact, they'll never vote for a Democrat. They like their tax breaks. They like the way Republicans honor wealth and white privilege. They don't like helping non-white people and they resent successful Black people. I think they resent successful single women. I know this because they're my relatives, or the relatives of friends, or acquaintances, and I've heard them talk for many years.
People criticize Harris for focusing on Trump's weaknesses. But, somehow, Trump's relentlessly negative campaign was successful.
It's just an excuse.
My predictions
I've never done this before! Please add your predictions to the thread.
I feel very confident that:
- Kamala Harris will win both the popular vote and electoral college by clear margins. The decision will come fairly quickly.
- Harris will win most of the swing states outright, with the Georgia decision coming in late (maybe weeks later) and not being essential to her win.
- The political careers of Donald Trump, JD Vance, and Ron DeSantis are over. Vance will not run for reelection to the senate. Trump and DeSantis will never win their party's nomination for anything again.
- Nikki Haley will be back, a contender for the 2028 GOP nomination. Liz Cheney will run, too.
- The Republican Party will quietly begin to dismantle abortion as a key issue in their platform. Some states will roll back draconian anti-abortion laws.
- With the loss of anti-abortion as a motivating principle, American Protestant churches will have to grapple with their purpose and goals. Many churches will close due to declining membership.
- The impacts of climate change on the economy, national security, infrastructure, and geo-political disruptions will accelerate and become far more important to voters in the near future.
- Meddling by billionaire sociopaths and leaders of Russia, China, Iran, and others will continue, especially in online propaganda, fueled by AI. Young people and aging people will be especially susceptible. Due to this misinformation, it will become more difficult to predict voting patterns by age and other demographics.
Things I'm fairly sure will happen...
- I think Harris may win some surprise states. While she might lose some swing states everyone's been watching, I think she might win Ohio, Iowa, possibly others. (Definitely not TX, though. Not yet.)
- I think the Democrats might retake the House and keep the Senate tied, with Walz as the tie-breaker.
- I don't think there will be any significant post election civil disruptions like we saw in 2022. I think the MAGATs are disillusioned and will fade away for a while, to return again one day....
- I fear that Putin and Iran will escalate things in the Middle East, creating as big a problem as they can for Harris's incoming administration. Their goal is to wipe Israel off the face of the earth and divide Democrats. This will be the cause of civil disruptions in the U.S.
Joe Biden stuck up for Puerto Ricans.
That's what people love about the guy. He sticks up for people who are being picked on. He calls out bullies.
On the playground, Joe is the kid everybody likes. He tells bullies to stop it and defends the kids they're bullying.
Too many people go along with the bullies or stay silent out of fear.
The media and some Democrats' response to this is another example of "obeying in advance," as Tim Snyder defines it. Don't do that. Show courage and stick up for people.
Joe did the right thing.
A different take on the WaPo scandal.
I'm calling it a scandal because that's what it is, and, notably, it's being called that by Washington Post reporters themselves. I think that's important and contains a glimmer of hope.
I won't waste space adding to the near-universal condemnation of Bezos's craven performance of "obeying in advance," as Tim Snyder aptly describes.
However, I think the blowback from Bezos's decision to block his editorial staff's endorsement of Kamala Harris might be more important than any endorsement would have been. The WaPo has never endorsed a Republican in my lifetime, and its readers are mostly Democrats. We all know that if WaPo endorsed somebody it would be Harris. Now we know they tried to do that and were blocked by their billionaire owner, and that story is actually getting a lot more attention than the ho hum endorsement would have gotten.
And, notice how many of the very critical columns and stories about the Post are being published by the Post itself. Go to their front page right now.
Interesting times.
I voted in Durham, North Carolina today.
Durham is a very blue small city in the central Piedmont area of NC. We are not the mountains or the sea. There are three major research universities in a 20 mile radius of me, along with several HBCUs. We are a very diverse, multicultural, artistic, foodie, tolerant community. I love it here.
I joined several hundred of my fellow Durhamites in a long line to vote this afternoon. I did the crossword. A young trans woman ahead of me struck up a conversation with several other young people. It sounded like they were discovering that they had mutual friends. The people around me looked like Durham - Black, White, Latino, Asian.
As I got closer to the voting tables, I could see that the poll workers were very busy. They had to keep opening new packages of ballots, answer questions, impose our ridiculous new voter ID law.
There was a family made up of what appeared to be father, mother, three children, plus possibly a friend or uncle, talking with a poll worker. Based on their clothes they were Muslim. I couldn't tell what the issue was, but the poll worker took the older of the three kids somewhere else for a minute. When he rejoined his family he was smiling. I think he was given a kid's ballot - it doesn't count but is a chance for kids to practice filling out a ballot.
A woman ahead of me in line had spoiled her ballot. She took it over to the table and gestured at it. She seemed upset. The poll worker graciously replaced the spoiled ballot with a replacement, all the while talking in a soothing tone. "That's alright. It happens. It's important that your vote count." The woman took her new ballot gratefully. The old one was stored in a bright red bag with lots of paperwork.
My turn. The poll worker opened another thick pack of ballots. I got to take my paper ballot to a cubicle. Somebody had left the Democratic Party's flyer of endorsements there. That's strictly forbidden. I left it there.
Kamala's name was right at the top! Trump's is in the middle, mixed in with a whole lot of third party candidates, including Jill Stein and Cornel West. Filling in the oval next to Kamala's name felt great. (Much better than taking the SAT.)
There's a stupid constitutional amendment I hadn't heard about, saying that only citizens can vote. This is already the law. Obviously a get out the vote mechanism for the red counties. 
I voted against it. I disapprove of using constitutional amendments for political reasons. NC can pass the ERA before I vote for this.
In Durham the ballots are full of Democrats, often running unopposed. So it was with the county commissioner's race: 5 slots, 5 Democrats, no other candidates. Frankly, a few of them are dingbats but I voted for all of them because, unopposed.
It gave me great pleasure to vote for Josh Stein. I believe he will be NC's first Jewish governor.
I took my completed ballot to the little machine that counts my votes and watched it add my ballot. The nice lady at the door gave me my Bull Durham "I Voted" sticker and that was that.
Democracy. It feels so good every time. Kamala will win!
How Helene became a Worst Case Scenario
Interesting, short article with graphics that show how mountain communities 600 miles from Florida were devastated:
These inland mountain communities are often safe from tropical storms. The cyclones that batter the U.S. southeastern coasts typically weaken as they come ashore. Many peter out before they reach a mountain town like Chimney Rock.
But this time, something different happened. Helene moved fast and carried its warm, moist air hundreds of miles inland into the Carolinas.
“It was a worst-case scenario for the type of tropical system that could deliver really extreme impacts that far inland,” said Gary Lackmann, professor of atmospheric sciences at N.C. State University.
Here’s what fueled Helene and caused so much devastation in the Appalachian Mountains.
Gift article; no paywall:
https://wapo.st/4exxjEC
She wants to do transgender operations on illegal aliens in prison???!
Minneapolis burned down?
Could we tweak the alert option about "right wing" content?
Ever since Putin started taking an interest in American politics, we've had to contend with falsehoods that aren't really "right wing" smears or talking points, but are smears and falsehoods nonetheless. I hesitate to call these "left wing" smears, but I think we need an option to alert on these posts. Could we add a tweak to the alert option about right wing smears, maybe something like "right wing or extremist."
Currently, when I see these types of posts I usually choose the "kooky" alert option, but that's not really a good match either. These aren't posts about contrails.
Thanks for considering this request.
Walz evokes comfort food.
I was thinking about the feelings that Governor Walz evokes, and I keep thinking of food. Good food. Comfort food. School lunches for children. Food for families.
I grew up in Ohio, and the midwestern approach to food is a touchstone. We like comfort food. Barack Obama tapped into this with his campaign's emphasis on pie. Everywhere Obama campaigned in the midwest he ate pie. Midwesterners love pie, all kinds of pie. We also love tater tots, pork chops, and pizza. We love hot beef sandwiches and mashed potatoes with gravy. We love broccoli casserole.
Americans are worried about the economy. We're worried about inflation. I hope the Harris Walz campaign plays up FOOD.
I hope it's Andy Beshear
Beshear is the smart pick for VP. Here's why.
Andy Beshear is a beloved Democratic governor in a small deep red rural state in Appalachia. No, he will not deliver Kentucky. But he will appeal to rural and suburban white independents who are looking for a reason not to vote for Trump. Beshear would help enormously in PA (especially the coal mining west, which is culturally similar to KY), MI, WI, NC, and GA.
Uncle Andy, as he's affectionately known by the Kentuckians who just reelected him to a second term as their governor, is progressive. He saved thousands of lives in KY with his sensible, plain spoken approach to COVID.
Beshear would bring executive experience, deep political knowledge (his dad was also governor of KY), and the ability to talk to ordinary people in plain language. I can see him talking to folks in eastern and western NC about the problems they're having, which he understands, and his ability to convince them that the Harris campaign can help them.
Beshear is young (41). He's a millennial. He's married with young kids. There isn't a whiff of a scandal. He's liked everywhere he goes. He literally offends nobody. I think he would balance the ticket while bringing even more youthful energy and enthusiasm.
I hope it's Andy Beshear, and they're getting ready to announce it in Philadelphia, the City of Freedom, with Josh Shapiro and all the other surrogates there to support the ticket.
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