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progree

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Gender: Male
Hometown: Minnesota
Member since: Sat Jan 1, 2005, 03:45 AM
Number of posts: 8,304

Journal Archives

Word to the wise: the crash is coming, get out of the stock market now ⚠ 👀 😱

I've been hearing "the crash is coming" ever since 2014 or so, and "that's why I stay out of the Wall Street Casino" ... "The House has the edge" and so on.

So, I decided to see what would have happened if some unfortunate soul had ignored the advice of the coming crash and went to the "Wall Street Casino" and had invested in an S&P 500 index fund at the worst possible time, October 9, 2007, at the very peak of the Housing Bubble market just before the worst crash since the Great Depression (The Housing Bubble crash resulted in a 57% decline from peak to trough).

Le's see how the unfortunate soul did:

From 10/9/07 to yesterday's 12/1/21 close:

S&P 500: went from 1,565 to 4,513 for a 7.77% annualized return just on the price appreciation (i.e. throwing away the dividends)

VFINX adjusted for dividends: from 110.07 -> 417.52 for a 9.88% annualized return (note the near-quadrupling in just 14 years)

VFINX is the Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund -- the results above are the real-world results of what Six Pack Joe or Jane would have gotten -- they are after fund expenses. It's not "theoretical" at all, it's what someone would have gotten had they invested in 10/9/07 and sold on 12/1/21.

I pick the S&P 500 because it is about 80-85% of the U.S. total market and the benchmark of the U.S. market that is most commonly used by professionals (the Dow is better known but is far less representative of the U.S. equities as a whole). And the one that Warren Buffett has recommended to anyone who simply wants to have an equity stake and that doesn't want to do research on individual stocks or sectors.

As for the "House" having the edge, no doubt -- I feel the same way when I look at the alternatives, e.g. for CD's or bonds to buy -- like 1.0% on a 4 year CD, 2.2% or so current yields on intermediate-term bond funds. Or a money market account of savings account paying 0.10%. But that's just me I guess.

As for where I got the numbers, it's from Yahoo Finance Historic Data:

VFINX: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VFINX/history?p=VFINX

For VFINX, the "Close" column is just the price, i.e. it doesn't include dividends.

Whereas the "Adjusted Close" column is adjusted by reinvested dividends and other distributions.

S&P 500: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC

As for the S&P 500 index, it's just the index value. Close and Adjusted Close are the same, i.e. there isn't a version of the S&P 500 index that includes dividends.


Anyway, what matters is the total return that includes dividend reinvestment: 9.88%/year. And remember that's someone investing at the worst time -- the peak before the Housing Bubble crash.

Yeah but it's just a few percent more, I'd rather sleep at night etc. etc.

Well that's understandable, but if you need some of your retirement savings to live on after you retire -- what matters is whether you'll run out of your retirement savings money before you die, and countless simulations show that the likelihood of that occurring is far higher with an all fixed income portfolio than with one with a mix of equities and fixed income.

Over time, a 9.88% annualized return, if maintained, doubles one's investment every 7.4 years, quadruples in 15.8 years, 8-folds in 22.2 years etc. The magic of compounding.

Whereas if one is lucky to get and maintain a 3.00% total return in bond investments, that takes 23.4 years to double, 46.8 years to quadruple, 70.2 years to reach 8-fold, etc.


BTW, the VFINX returns would have been much higher if the person had invested at the very best time -- the bottom of the crash, on 3/9/09 when the S&P 500 bottomed out at 677. VFINX's adjusted close on that date was 49.25. So from that point to 12/1/21 close, VFINX with dividends reinvested would have gone from 49.25 to 417.52 in 12.73 years, that's an 8.47-fold increase -- that's an annualized return of 18.28%

(An 18.28% annual return results in a doubling in 4.1 years, a quadrupling in 8.2 years, an 8-folding in 12.3 years etc.)

Here's another metric:

The VFINX S&P 500 index fund has had an average annualized return of 11.62% since its August 31, 1976 inception to 11/30/21, per
https://www.thestreet.com/quote/VFINX.html

(see: "Life of Fund" )

During that time (8/31/76 - 11/30/21), it went up 144 fold. Yes, that's what a 11.62% return over 45.248 years compounds to.

A 7% return in bonds during that same period would have resulted in a 21.4 fold increase.

A 4.62 percentage point annual return difference is the difference between having $144,000 and have $21,400 on a $1,000 investment over 45.248 years.

Minn stats: 40% of recent covid deaths were vaxxed. The vaxxed have 1/16 the risk of dying

as the unvaccinated. Yes I know this doesn't seem to compute. But please read on for the explanation.

The same happens to be true of hospitalization rates: the vaccinated make up about 31% of the hospitalized, but have 1/16 the risk of being hospitalized as the unvaxed.

As for cases, the vaccinated have 1/4 the risk as the unvaxed of contracting Covid.

Minnesota Public Radio November 12

http://view.connect.mpr.org/?qs=705e8290f0ee33f139886fb1f76aaab7431f6bb156cf5d0504678fecdccac150733ab975393955e32b893f1ec0e854232574ba0d728d6d159d7c170c87c3658e918a8e3455fe2f43a08b27bca8942d7e

What's happening with breakthrough cases?

... First, the new data we got is total case counts by vaccination status. Unfortunately, it's still weekly and a month out of date, so it doesn't tell us anything about what's happening now. But it does tell us some interesting things.

40 percent of COVID-19 deaths are among the vaccinated?

But remember that something like 75 percent of all COVID-19 deaths right now happen to seniors, of whom just under 92 percent were fully vaccinated a month ago.

... roughly 8 percent of seniors who were unvaccinated accounted for 67 percent of all deaths. The other 92 percent accounted for the other third.

... [all ages] The unvaccinated have been about four times more likely to get a COVID-19 case, and about 16 times more likely to be hospitalized or die.

Also extremely importantly, these ratios have been largely flat for months. The relative case prevalence did take a dive in June and July, as the delta variant took hold in Minnesota, but has been flat since then. This matters since there has been some evidence that vaccine effectiveness can fade with time. That may very well be true, but we're not seeing it in these numbers.




https://www.mprnews.org/story/2021/11/12/latest-on-covid19-in-mn

Adjusted for age, unvaccinated Minnesotans have been about four times more likely to get COVID-19 than those who’ve been vaccinated — and 16 times more likely to be hospitalized or die from it.

The shots, of course, don’t insulate people completely from getting COVID-19.

Minnesota Health Department figures released Friday show about 40 percent of Minnesota’s COVID-19 cases among people 12 or older were breakthroughs — people previously inoculated — as of a month ago, the most recent available data.

The share of cases, hospitalizations and deaths that are breakthroughs has risen steadily in recent months. However, health officials say this isn’t surprising or even alarming.

More than 70 percent of Minnesotans 12 or older are fully vaccinated, which means as the disease has spread in recent months the virus has encountered plenty of vaccinated people.

Minnesota was #1 (new Covid cases per capita, 7 day average). Updated 11/20

U.S. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
(See the county-level colorized map of the U.S., and the table of states below that. The U.S. overall unfortunately is on a definite uptrend again, +15%   7 day average compared to the 7 day average 14 days preceding.)


Minnesota https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/minnesota-covid-cases.html


Restaurants And Breweries Offering Outdoor Experiences Again, As COVID Cases Continue To Rise In MN, 11/13/21
https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2021/11/13/restaurants-and-breweries-outdoor-dining/
Several businesses are bringing back the creativity from last winter and offering outdoor options. ...


Why COVID cases are surging in states with high vaccination rates — and what it means for the winter ahead 11/11/21
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/why-covid-cases-are-surging-in-states-with-high-vaccination-rates-and-what-it-means-for-the-winter-ahead/ar-AAQBgME?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531


##### UPDATES ################

See #4 for Nov 20 update



Carbon dioxide levels hit 50% higher than preindustrial time 👀💔

Carbon dioxide levels hit 50% higher than preindustrial time, AP, 6/7/21

The annual peak of global heat-trapping carbon dioxide in the air has reached another dangerous milestone: 50 percent higher than when the industrial age began.

And the average rate of increase is faster than ever, scientist reported Monday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the average carbon dioxide level for May was 419.13 parts per million. That’s 1.82 parts per million higher than May 2020 and 50% higher than the stable pre-industrial levels of 280 parts per million, said NOAA climate scientist Pieter Tans.

The 10-year average rate of increase also set a record, now up to 2.4 parts per million per year.

“Carbon dioxide going up in a few decades like that is extremely unusual,” Tans said. “For example, when the Earth climbed out of the last ice age, carbon dioxide increased by about 80 parts per million and it took the Earth system, the natural system, 6,000 years. We have a much larger increase in the last few decades.”

By comparison, it has taken only 42 years, from 1979 to 2021, to increase carbon dioxide by that same amount.
MORE: https://www.mprnews.org/story/2021/06/07/carbon-dioxide-levels-hit-50-higher-than-preindustrial-time

=====================================

It's been stuck in my head for at least 20 years that we were 40-something percent above pre-industrial levels. Now I'll have to unstick that factoid and stick in 50-something percent.

403 Forbidden - can't reply to this GD thread or Edit my previous reply to it.

As Vaccines Turn Pandemic's Tide, U.S. and Europe Diverge on Path Forward
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100215497294

I replied to it at 6:42 AM CT (Reply #2). But shortly after (within an hour), I tried to edit it to add some information, and got the 403 Forbidden whenever I click Preview or Update My Post. Have tried many times throughout the day.

Also tried a fresh Reply to the OP a few times with the same result.

I'm using Chrome on a Windows 10 computer. I tried Edge with the same result.

I had no trouble in Chrome (after the problem started) editing a reply in another thread -- an LBN thread https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=2752106

It's not a big deal to me as long as it's confined to the "As Vaccines Turn" thread, but thought I'd report it anyway as it's persisted for about 12 hours now.

Thanks

Edit just a trial edit to see if editing works

Indian economy, hit by COVID-19, shrinks by 7.3% in 2020-21

Source: AP

India’s economy, pummeled by the coronavirus pandemic, contracted by 7.3% in the 2020-21 financial year, just before the country was hit by another catastrophic surge in infections.

The economy grew at a 1.6% annual rate in the January-March quarter, according to figures released Monday by the government, but that recovery was stifled by a resurgence of infections in March. Daily new cases set global records, spurring many states to announce widespread restrictions and lockdowns.

New cases and deaths recently have begun to decline, but much of the country is still under some form of a shutdown, with many industries and businesses unable to resume work.

In January, a government survey estimated the economy -- previously one of the fastest growing among major nations -– would bounce back, expanding 11% in the current fiscal year, which began in April. But some ratings agencies say growth is likely to slow to about 10% due to the most recent surge in COVID-19 cases.

Read more: https://www.yahoo.com/news/indian-economy-hit-covid-19-125101213.html

Minnesota's oldest Black-owned newspaper puts its archive online

'Super cool’: Minnesota’s oldest Black-owned newspaper puts its archive online, MPR, 5/30/21

The Minnesota Spokesman-Recorder has documented daily life in the Twin Cities’ Black community for more than 85 years. But until recently, finding stories from that rich past meant slogging through stacks of old newsprint.

Now, that history can be found with a few clicks. Archives reaching back to 1934 are online now at the Minnesota Historical Society's digital newspaper hub ( https://www.mnhs.org/newspapers/hub ).

Almost 11,000 pages of the Minneapolis Spokesman, one of the forerunners of today’s Spokesman-Recorder, can be accessed through the hub, said Anne Levin, the digital newspapers manager at the Minnesota Historical Society.

Issues of the St. Paul Recorder, Twin-City Herald and Timely Digest will also be added to the digital hub in the next few months. Currently, about 8,530 pages of the Recorder are available, covering the years from 1934 to 1941. About 1,800 pages of the Herald and more than 200 pages of the Timely Digest are also digitized.

More: https://www.mprnews.org/story/2021/05/30/minnesotas-oldest-blackowned-newspaper-puts-its-archive-online

I hope they don't have a lot of the South African variant there

the AstraZeneca vaccine ... is a massive fail against the B.1.351 South African variant running riot in many places. It only has a 10.4% efficacy rate v B.1.351.

according to New England Journal of Medicine
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=15441803

YouTube: Man Schools A Cop That Detained Him For Parking On A Public Street



My (Progree) short description of what I saw -- He's sitting in a car parked across the street from a house in North Branch, Minnesota. A woman in that house called 911 about a suspicious person taking pictures, and so this cop showed up. The driver simply refused to show his license and registration or answer any questions because the cop didn't have a valid reason to detain him. All the cop could say about that is that they got this suspicious person call and he was finding out what was going on. The driver (he self-describes as a "colored person" at 2:30. ) said he has a legal right to sit on the street and take pictures 24/7 (though he said he wasn't taking pictures, he merely had a cellphone on a dashboard mount). And he asked the cop to identify himself which the cop finally did. The driver told him this is going to be on Facebook, YouTube and I forget what else. The cop did start to sound like he was about to cry when he left.

Oh, at 6:50 the cop said "I'm smelling an odor coming from your car", Driver said: get your puppy then. (more than once).

An earlier GD thread about it: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100215390073

Protesters Clash With Police In Brooklyn Center After Deadly Officer-Involved Shooting (MN)

Source: WCCO-TV (CBS affiliate Minneapolis)

Brooklyn Center police say an officer fatally shot a driver Sunday, leading to some clashes between protesters and law enforcement. Here are the latest updates:

9:49 p.m.: The standoff continues outside of the Brooklyn Center Police Department between protesters and law enforcement.

Brooklyn Center police said officers pulled over a driver they said had an outstanding arrest warrant, just before 2 p.m. on the 6300 block of Orchard Avenue. As officers were trying to arrest the driver, police say they tried to get back inside their vehicle. An officer then shot the driver, who then drove a couple blocks more before hitting another vehicle in the area of 63rd Avenue North and Kathrene Drive. No one in that second vehicle was hurt. The driver was pronounced dead at the scene. Police say the officers involved were believed to be wearing activated body cameras at the time of the shooting.

The victim’s mother, Katie Wright, spoke to the crowd. She said her son — 20-year-old Daunte Wright — had been killed by police. She said Wright’s girlfriend was in the car with him at the time of the traffic stop. Police say that woman suffered non-life threatening injuries in the crash, and was taken to North Memorial Health.



Read more: https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2021/04/11/bca-reporting-to-officer-involved-shooting-in-brooklyn-center/



More background at the article. It is being continuously updated.

Yes, the fatally shot driver is Black.

For non-Minnesotans, Brooklyn Center is the first suburb north of Minneapolis. Minneapolis is of course the city where George Floyd was murdered by then Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin, who has been on trial for the past 2 weeks.

Cross-posted at Minnesota Group https://www.democraticunderground.com/105910260
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