progree

progree's Journal

May 13, 2026

GRAPHS and table

I'll add more info later after I read the news summary https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

PPI data series (yes, it has food & energy included in it): http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4

Core PPI data series (without food nor energy nor trade services): http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49116

As always, I prefer to show everything annualized so as to compare to the Fed's 2% goal and to each other

Regular PPI (includes food & energy & trade services)
Red line indicates the Federal Reserve's 2.0% inflation target

CORE PPI (EXcludes food & energy & trade services)
Red line indicates the Federal Reserve's 2.0% inflation target
The title of the 3 month one got cut off -- the last word is annualized

Percent increases over the past month, over the past 3 months, and over the past 12 months, seasonally adjusted numbers, ANNUALIZED
1 mo `3 mo `12mo
----- ----- -----
17.8% 11.1% 6.0% Regular PPI (includes food & energy)
`7.0% `5.3% 4.4% Core PPI (does not have food nor energy nor trade services)

2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Federal Reserve Target

backquote symbols (`) added for spacing. Please try to ignore them

May 12, 2026

GRAPHS

I'll add more info later after I read the news summary https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

CPI data series: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0

Core CPI data series: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E

As always, I prefer to show everything annualized so as to compare to the Fed's 2% goal and to each other

Regular CPI (includes food & energy)
Red line indicates the Federal Reserve's 2.0% inflation target

CORE CPI (EXcludes food & energy)
Red line indicates the Federal Reserve's 2.0% inflation target

Percent increases over the past month, over the past 3 months, and over the past 12 months, seasonally adjusted numbers, ANNUALIZED
1 mo 3 mo 12mo
---- ---- ----
8.0% 7.3% 3.8% Regular CPI (includes food & energy)
4.6% 3.2% 2.8% Core CPI (does not have food or energy)

2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Federal Reserve Target

April 30, 2026

GRAPHS, PCE Inflation, added the table and the source links

Horizontal red lines drawn at the Fed's 2% target

PCE March +0.7%;; 12 months: 3.5%
CORE PCE: +0.3%;; 12 months: 3.2%,
4/30/26
SOURCE URLS: 4/30/26 release: https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income
. . . CURRENT RELEASE - https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-march-2026
. . . FULL RELEASE: https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2026-04/pi0326.pdf
. . . PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI
. . . CORE PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/PCEPILFE

Percent increases, seasonally adjusted numbers, ANNUALIZED, over the past month, the past 3 months, and the past 12 months

1 mo 3 mo 12mo
---- ---- ----
8.2% 5.6% 3.5% Regular PCE (includes food & energy)
3.6% 3.3% 3.2% Core PCE (does not have food nor energy

2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Federal Reserve Target

REGULAR "ALL ITEMS" PCE

CORE PCE (Does Not Include Food Nor Energy)

(These are calculated using the actual index values, as are my graphs)

As usual, I prefer to present annualized figures so they can be compared to the Fed's target and to different-length time periods

The CORE PCE is the Federal Reserve's favorite gauge for forecasting FUTURE inflation.

April 14, 2026

Graphs.

# BLS SOURCE: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
# PPI http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4
# PPI ex food, energy, and trade services http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49116

Percent increases, seasonally adjusted numbers, ANNUALIZED
1 mo 3 mo 12mo
---- ---- ----
6.3% 6.4% 4.0% Regular PPI (includes food & energy & trade services)
2.5% 4.8% 3.6% Core PPI (does not have food, energy, or trade services)

2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Federal Reserve Target

I added red lines at 2.0% which is the Federal Reserve's target, so to make clear how far from that goal prices are. The reason I annualize everything is so they can be compared to the 2% target.

One reason for the big increase in year-over-year despite "just" a 0.5% increase in March, is that a negative amount in March 2025 dropped out of the 12-month window. Yes, what drops out of the window is just as important in determining the size and direction of the 12-month average as what enters the window.

The BLS features the above two in their news release. The news release never mentions a PPI less food and energy.

Food, energy, and trade services are the volatile components

The trade services is very volatile:

See Table 1 in ppi.nr0.htm: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.t01.htm
Trade Services month-over-month percentage increases in the last 5 months were:
. . . +0.2%, +2.0%, +2.0%, -0.4%, -0.3%,

Trade services increase over last 12 months: +4.2%

The volatility is why they strip it out of their core measure (actually they never use the word "core" )

April 10, 2026

GRAPHS - more words to come, but for now, here is the "silent" version

Regular CPI, aka "all items" -- includes food and energy

CORE CPI - does not include food and energy

I guess the fuel and fertilizer spike-up since the beginning of the current Iran War (which started February 28) have not filtered down yet to non-food, non-energy items yet, given that the CORE (which doesn't include food nor energy) increased only 0.196% (2.38% annualized) from February to March, if their numbers are to be believed. The 0.196% rounds to 0.2% which is what's reported.

(The 0.196% is calculated using their actual index numbers as is the annualization).

REGULAR: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0

CORE: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E

April 9, 2026

GRAPHS - looks like a horrible report with high and rising inflation to me

PCE February +0.4% (January was +0.3%);;: 12 months: 2.8% (same as in January's report);;
CORE PCE: +0.4% (January was +0.4%);; 12 months: 3.0%, (down 0.1% from January's reported 3.1%)
4/9/26
SOURCE URLS: 4/9/26 release: https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income
. . . CURRENT RELEASE - https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-february-2026
. . . FULL RELEASE AND TABLES - UPDATE THIS: https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2026-03/pi0126.pdf
. . . . . . I can't find the equivalent of this one for this month's report, I'll have to dig, but gotta go shopping today
. . . PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI
. . . CORE PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/PCEPILFE

Regular PCE aka "all items"

,

CORE PCE (excludes food and energy)

These are horrible numbers. The rolling 3 month average increase, annualized, is:
Regular PCE: 4.11%, , Core PCE: 4.43%, and both are rising
Federal Reserves' inflation target: 2%
(These are calculated using the actual index values, as are my graphs)

As usual, I prefer to present annualized figures so they can be compared to the Fed's target and to different-length time periods

Looking at the month-over-month bar charts, February 2025 was huge. It fell out of the 12-month window in this report, which is why the 12-month graphs/numbers fell slightly (this is true for both the regular PCE and the core PCE. The PCE 12-month increase stayed the same 2.8% after rounding, while the core PCE 12 month average dropped 0.1% (from 3.1% in January to 3.0% in February, when rounded)

What falls out of the 12 month window is just as important, really, honestly, and truly, as what enters the 12-month window, in determining whether the 12-month average ticks up or down.

The CORE PCE is the Federal Reserve's favorite gauge for forecasting FUTURE inflation. This doesn't fit the media's typical narrative that inflation is coming down or at worst "sticky".

Remember the graphs (and OP) on inflation are FEBRUARY. The MARCH ones are likely to be uglier, given that the US/Israeli attacks on Iran began February 28 with the spikes in oil and fertilizer prices

So, the above (February) may very likely be remembered as the "good ol' days" of the Trump II kakistocracy.

The CPI inflation report for MARCH comes out tomorrow, so we'll see how much the Iran war affected things (the US/Israeli attacks began February 28)

ETA - from the OP excerpt:

Inflation held sticky at 3%

. . .

The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rose a seasonally adjusted 3% in February, the Commerce Department reported. The all-items headline inflation measure increased 2.8%.

Both readings were in line with the Dow Jones consensus. The core annual inflation rate was 0.1 percentage point lower than in January while headline was unchanged. On a monthly basis, both core and headline prices rose 0.4%, also meeting forecasts.

This makes it sound so tame, like inflation is steady-as-she-goes, meeting expectations, thank you Donald. WELL, FFS, the 0.4% month-over-month -- that's 4.8% on an annualized basis if one simply multiplies by 12 to annualize. More accurately, 0.4% is (1.004^12 - 1 )^100% = 4.91% taking into account that monthly increases compound. That's 4 point fucking 91 percent!! How in God's name anyone can write an article calling inflation "steady a 3%" and pointing out that the core fell 0.1 percentage points (on a 12-month basis), when the latest month is up 4 point fucking 91 percent on an annualized basis!! , I just don't know.

Actually, the core went up 0.367% in the last month-over-month, according to the index numbers for more accuracy, which annualizes to 4.49%. (And they properly round 0.367% to the reported 0.4% )

The regular PCE went up 0.375% in the last month-month, according to the index numbers for more accuracy, which annualizes to 4.60%. (And they properly round the 0.375% to to the reported 0.4%)

April 5, 2026

For 10 straight months, monthly job growth has alternated between positive and negative - excellent graph

The US labor market right now can be defined by one word: Whiplash, Yahoo Finance, 4/4/26

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-us-labor-market-right-now-can-be-defined-by-one-word-whiplash/ar-AA208SXY

Data from the Labor Department published Friday showed the US economy added 178,000 jobs in March after February's revised loss of 133,000. In March, the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%.

On its face, that looks like a sharp turnaround. In context, it looks more like another violent swing in a labor market that has become unusually hard to read. And that whiplash nature of the labor market is the real story in the economy right now.

For 10 straight months, monthly job growth has alternated between positive and negative. The past three months alone went from a gain of 160,000 to a loss of 133,000 to a gain of 178,000.

Each report feels huge. Each report also says less on its own.

If the current swing in monthly job gains and losses were a stock chart, technicians might call the green trend lines on the chart above a broadening megaphone pattern: wider swings, more disagreement, less clarity.

And while technical analysis doesn't work with economic data, that framing isn't a bad way to think about the labor market. The monthly data swings are becoming more extreme, even as the longer-term trend continues to weaken.

GRAPHS

# BLS SOURCE: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
# PPI http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4
# PPI ex food, energy, and trade services http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49116

This is all pre-Iran war, which began February 28.
This is all pre-Iran war, which began February 28.

The BLS features the above two in their news release. The news release never mentions a PPI less food and energy.

Food, energy, and trade services are the volatile components

The trade services is very volatile:

See Table 1 in ppi.nr0.htm: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.t01.htm
Trade Services month-over-month percentage increases in the last 5 months were:
. . . -0.9% -0.5% +1.9% +2.2% +0.4%.
12 months: +5.2%

That's why they strip it out of their core measure (actually they never use the word "core" )

March 13, 2026

PCE Inflation Graphs

PCE January 0.3% (December was 0.4%);;: 12 months: 2.8%;;
CORE PCE: 0.4% (December was 0.4%);; 12 months: 3.1%,
3/13/26
SOURCE URLS: 3/13/26 release: https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income
. . . CURRENT RELEASE - https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-january-2026
. . . FULL RELEASE AND TABLES - https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2026-03/pi0126.pdf
. . . PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI
. . . CORE PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/PCEPILFE

,

The CORE PCE is the Federal Reserve's favorite gauge for forecasting FUTURE inflation. This doesn't fit the media's typical narrative that inflation is coming down or at worst "sticky".

Remember the graphs (and OP) on inflation are JANUARY. The FEBRUARY ones are likely to be uglier, given the CPI ones for February that came out 2 days ago --

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3630564

Oh, almost forgot - the Iran thing and the oil and LNG and fertilizer price spikes? The attack on Iran began on Saturday, February 28. So none of this is in the January graphs above. And isn't in the February CPI graphs either and won't be in the February PCE when that comes out April 9.

So, the above (January and February) may very likely be remembered as the "good ol' days" of the Trump II kakistocracy.

March 11, 2026

Hot and rising inflation according to the 3 month rolling average graphs. Both CPI and core CPI are at 3.0% annualized

and rising. As expected.

I'll add more info later after I read the news summary https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

CPI data series: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0

Core CPI data series: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E

As always, I prefer to show everything annualized so as to compare to the Fed's 2% goal and to each other

The 12 month graphs in the OP look nice and tame and even trending down slightly. But they both benefit by hot January 2025 to February 2025 numbers dropping out of the 12-month window: regular CPI: 2.73% annualized, and core CPI: 3.10% annualized. For the trend, what drops out of the 12 month window is every bit as important as what enters the 12-month window

Percent increases, seasonally adjusted numbers, ANNUALIZED
1 mo 3 mo 12mo
---- ---- ----
3.3% 3.0% 2.4% Regular CPI (includes food & energy)
2.6% 3.0% 2.5% Core CPI (does not have food or energy)

2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Federal Reserve Target

As for the trend,

For the regular CPI, The 3-month average increase (annualized) was at a local low of 2.2% in November but is now at 3.0%

For the core CPI, The 3-month average increase (annualized) was at a local low of 1.6% in November but is now at 3.0%

All of this is before any Iran effects of course.

And in March, the 12-month average is not helped at all by what drops out of the 12-month window: just a very small 0.40% annualized for the regular CPI, and an also very small 0.83% annualized for the core CPI.

Profile Information

Gender: Male
Hometown: Minnesota
Member since: Sat Jan 1, 2005, 04:45 AM
Number of posts: 13,084

About progree

I'm a long-time resident of the Twin Cities area: S.E. Minneapolis 1977-1980 and Golden Valley 1980-present. I'm over 70. . . Lately I'm best known here for my inflation graphs - scroll down my journal a short ways until graphs appear. I'm a frequent contributor to the latest economic reports on LBN and Economy Group.

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