progree
progree's JournalGraphs.
# BLS SOURCE: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
# PPI http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4
# PPI ex food, energy, and trade services http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49116
Percent increases, seasonally adjusted numbers, ANNUALIZED
1 mo 3 mo 12mo
---- ---- ----
6.3% 6.4% 4.0% Regular PPI (includes food & energy & trade services)
2.5% 4.8% 3.6% Core PPI (does not have food, energy, or trade services)
2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Federal Reserve Target
I added red lines at 2.0% which is the Federal Reserve's target, so to make clear how far from that goal prices are. The reason I annualize everything is so they can be compared to the 2% target.
One reason for the big increase in year-over-year despite "just" a 0.5% increase in March, is that a negative amount in March 2025 dropped out of the 12-month window. Yes, what drops out of the window is just as important in determining the size and direction of the 12-month average as what enters the window.
The BLS features the above two in their news release. The news release never mentions a PPI less food and energy.
Food, energy, and trade services are the volatile components
The trade services is very volatile:
See Table 1 in ppi.nr0.htm: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.t01.htm
Trade Services month-over-month percentage increases in the last 5 months were:
. . . +0.2%, +2.0%, +2.0%, -0.4%, -0.3%,
Trade services increase over last 12 months: +4.2%
The volatility is why they strip it out of their core measure (actually they never use the word "core" )
GRAPHS - more words to come, but for now, here is the "silent" version
Regular CPI, aka "all items" -- includes food and energy
CORE CPI - does not include food and energy
I guess the fuel and fertilizer spike-up since the beginning of the current Iran War (which started February 28) have not filtered down yet to non-food, non-energy items yet, given that the CORE (which doesn't include food nor energy) increased only 0.196% (2.38% annualized) from February to March, if their numbers are to be believed. The 0.196% rounds to 0.2% which is what's reported.
(The 0.196% is calculated using their actual index numbers as is the annualization).
REGULAR: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
CORE: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E
GRAPHS - looks like a horrible report with high and rising inflation to me
PCE February +0.4% (January was +0.3%);;: 12 months: 2.8% (same as in January's report);;
CORE PCE: +0.4% (January was +0.4%);; 12 months: 3.0%, (down 0.1% from January's reported 3.1%)
4/9/26
SOURCE URLS: 4/9/26 release: https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income
. . . CURRENT RELEASE - https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-february-2026
. . . FULL RELEASE AND TABLES - UPDATE THIS: https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2026-03/pi0126.pdf
. . . . . . I can't find the equivalent of this one for this month's report, I'll have to dig, but gotta go shopping today
. . . PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI
. . . CORE PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/PCEPILFE
Regular PCE aka "all items"
,
CORE PCE (excludes food and energy)
These are horrible numbers. The rolling 3 month average increase, annualized, is:
Regular PCE: 4.11%, , Core PCE: 4.43%, and both are rising
Federal Reserves' inflation target: 2%
(These are calculated using the actual index values, as are my graphs)
As usual, I prefer to present annualized figures so they can be compared to the Fed's target and to different-length time periods
Looking at the month-over-month bar charts, February 2025 was huge. It fell out of the 12-month window in this report, which is why the 12-month graphs/numbers fell slightly (this is true for both the regular PCE and the core PCE. The PCE 12-month increase stayed the same 2.8% after rounding, while the core PCE 12 month average dropped 0.1% (from 3.1% in January to 3.0% in February, when rounded)
What falls out of the 12 month window is just as important, really, honestly, and truly, as what enters the 12-month window, in determining whether the 12-month average ticks up or down.
The CORE PCE is the Federal Reserve's favorite gauge for forecasting FUTURE inflation. This doesn't fit the media's typical narrative that inflation is coming down or at worst "sticky".
Remember the graphs (and OP) on inflation are FEBRUARY. The MARCH ones are likely to be uglier, given that the US/Israeli attacks on Iran began February 28 with the spikes in oil and fertilizer prices
So, the above (February) may very likely be remembered as the "good ol' days" of the Trump II kakistocracy.
The CPI inflation report for MARCH comes out tomorrow, so we'll see how much the Iran war affected things (the US/Israeli attacks began February 28)
ETA - from the OP excerpt:
. . .
The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rose a seasonally adjusted 3% in February, the Commerce Department reported. The all-items headline inflation measure increased 2.8%.
Both readings were in line with the Dow Jones consensus. The core annual inflation rate was 0.1 percentage point lower than in January while headline was unchanged. On a monthly basis, both core and headline prices rose 0.4%, also meeting forecasts.
This makes it sound so tame, like inflation is steady-as-she-goes, meeting expectations, thank you Donald. WELL, FFS, the 0.4% month-over-month -- that's 4.8% on an annualized basis if one simply multiplies by 12 to annualize. More accurately, 0.4% is (1.004^12 - 1 )^100% = 4.91% taking into account that monthly increases compound. That's 4 point fucking 91 percent!! How in God's name anyone can write an article calling inflation "steady a 3%" and pointing out that the core fell 0.1 percentage points (on a 12-month basis), when the latest month is up 4 point fucking 91 percent on an annualized basis!! , I just don't know.
Actually, the core went up 0.367% in the last month-over-month, according to the index numbers for more accuracy, which annualizes to 4.49%. (And they properly round 0.367% to the reported 0.4% )
The regular PCE went up 0.375% in the last month-month, according to the index numbers for more accuracy, which annualizes to 4.60%. (And they properly round the 0.375% to to the reported 0.4%)
For 10 straight months, monthly job growth has alternated between positive and negative - excellent graph
The US labor market right now can be defined by one word: Whiplash, Yahoo Finance, 4/4/26https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-us-labor-market-right-now-can-be-defined-by-one-word-whiplash/ar-AA208SXY
On its face, that looks like a sharp turnaround. In context, it looks more like another violent swing in a labor market that has become unusually hard to read. And that whiplash nature of the labor market is the real story in the economy right now.
For 10 straight months, monthly job growth has alternated between positive and negative. The past three months alone went from a gain of 160,000 to a loss of 133,000 to a gain of 178,000.
Each report feels huge. Each report also says less on its own.
If the current swing in monthly job gains and losses were a stock chart, technicians might call the green trend lines on the chart above a broadening megaphone pattern: wider swings, more disagreement, less clarity.
And while technical analysis doesn't work with economic data, that framing isn't a bad way to think about the labor market. The monthly data swings are becoming more extreme, even as the longer-term trend continues to weaken.
More at link
GRAPHS
# BLS SOURCE: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
# PPI http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4
# PPI ex food, energy, and trade services http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49116
This is all pre-Iran war, which began February 28.
This is all pre-Iran war, which began February 28.
The BLS features the above two in their news release. The news release never mentions a PPI less food and energy.
Food, energy, and trade services are the volatile components
The trade services is very volatile:
See Table 1 in ppi.nr0.htm: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.t01.htm
Trade Services month-over-month percentage increases in the last 5 months were:
. . . -0.9% -0.5% +1.9% +2.2% +0.4%.
12 months: +5.2%
That's why they strip it out of their core measure (actually they never use the word "core" )
PCE Inflation Graphs
PCE January 0.3% (December was 0.4%);;: 12 months: 2.8%;;
CORE PCE: 0.4% (December was 0.4%);; 12 months: 3.1%,
3/13/26
SOURCE URLS: 3/13/26 release: https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income
. . . CURRENT RELEASE - https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-january-2026
. . . FULL RELEASE AND TABLES - https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2026-03/pi0126.pdf
. . . PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI
. . . CORE PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/PCEPILFE
,
The CORE PCE is the Federal Reserve's favorite gauge for forecasting FUTURE inflation. This doesn't fit the media's typical narrative that inflation is coming down or at worst "sticky".
Remember the graphs (and OP) on inflation are JANUARY. The FEBRUARY ones are likely to be uglier, given the CPI ones for February that came out 2 days ago --
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3630564
Oh, almost forgot - the Iran thing and the oil and LNG and fertilizer price spikes? The attack on Iran began on Saturday, February 28. So none of this is in the January graphs above. And isn't in the February CPI graphs either and won't be in the February PCE when that comes out April 9.
So, the above (January and February) may very likely be remembered as the "good ol' days" of the Trump II kakistocracy.
Hot and rising inflation according to the 3 month rolling average graphs. Both CPI and core CPI are at 3.0% annualized
and rising. As expected.
I'll add more info later after I read the news summary https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CPI data series: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
Core CPI data series: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E
As always, I prefer to show everything annualized so as to compare to the Fed's 2% goal and to each other
The 12 month graphs in the OP look nice and tame and even trending down slightly. But they both benefit by hot January 2025 to February 2025 numbers dropping out of the 12-month window: regular CPI: 2.73% annualized, and core CPI: 3.10% annualized. For the trend, what drops out of the 12 month window is every bit as important as what enters the 12-month window
Percent increases, seasonally adjusted numbers, ANNUALIZED
1 mo 3 mo 12mo
---- ---- ----
3.3% 3.0% 2.4% Regular CPI (includes food & energy)
2.6% 3.0% 2.5% Core CPI (does not have food or energy)
2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Federal Reserve Target
As for the trend,
For the regular CPI, The 3-month average increase (annualized) was at a local low of 2.2% in November but is now at 3.0%
For the core CPI, The 3-month average increase (annualized) was at a local low of 1.6% in November but is now at 3.0%
All of this is before any Iran effects of course.
And in March, the 12-month average is not helped at all by what drops out of the 12-month window: just a very small 0.40% annualized for the regular CPI, and an also very small 0.83% annualized for the core CPI.
GRAPHS of PCE and CORE PCE inflation, the trend is not your friend edition
Core PCE (below) is the PCE with food and energy removed. It's the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation gauge for predicting FUTURE inflation
PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI
CORE PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/PCEPILFE
Graphs
I'll add more info later after I read the news summary https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CPI data series: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
Core CPI data series: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E
Here is the admin's own numbers on the inflation situation
TLDR version: Year-over-year inflation has been rising for 5 straight months and is now at 3.0%, which is 1.5 X the Federal Reserve's 2% target. And in the last 3 months, prices have increased 0.9% which annualizes to a 3.6% inflation rate, which is 1.8 X The Federal Reserve's target. Here is the official data /END TLDR
CPI (seasonally adjusted)
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
At the top right, click on More Formatting Options
On the left are some check boxes. Besides the "Original Data Value" one which is already checked,
Check the 1-Month Percent Change and the 3-Month Percent Change and the 12-Month Percent Change checkboxes
Then click the "Retrieve Data" button.
On the one month change one, there were no negative inflation months since May 2020, except April 2025 (-0.1%), which was followed by +0.2% the following month. So since May 2020, prices have overall on average been increasing every month except for one slight one-month dip, which was reversed the following month and then some.
As for peak inflation on a year-over-year basis (the bottom table and graph, repeated just below, this is the 12-month one), that was June 2022 at 9.0% (going all the way back to January 2015, the default start date of the graph and tables).
If you set the start date all the way back to 1970, the peak year-over-year inflation was 14.6% in March and April of 1980.
Year-over-year inflation has been climbing for 5 straight months, and is now at 3.0%. So if you're hearing that inflation is coming down, no it's not. And this is from the admin's own numbers.
Here is the year-over-year (aka 12-month) CPI graph and table from January 2015 to September 2025 (the latest)
==========================================
I like the 3-month average as it's a more recent measure than the 12-month one, but more than a "one-off" single month data point. In the last 3 months (the middle table and graph, repeated below), prices increased 0.9%. That annualizes to about a 3.6% inflation rate (using the actual index values for the calculation, and taking into account compounding, it comes to 3.62%. And rising).
The 3 month rolling average, % change over 3 months:
These are percent increases over 3 months. To roughly annualize, multiply the numbers by 4
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