progree
progree's JournalSuspected arson damages St. Paul Islamic center, 6th attack on MN mosques this year
... Few details were initially available, but the fire is said to have happened at Tawhid Islamic Center of Minnesota, which is on the 400 block of Dale Street. Crews responded at about 8:45 a.m. (Wednesday morning, 5/17 -progree) on a report of flames coming from the building.
This is the sixth suspected attack on a mosque this year in Minnesota, and the second in two weeks in St. Paul, after security cameras captured vandals throwing rocks at the Masjid al-Sunnah Mosque on Pederson Street. (Vandals? I thought there was just one -progree)
Police officials saying they will increase patrols at mosques across the city, and Carter promised he'll lobby to raise funds for more security cameras.
Emphasis added by progree.
More: including video of the damage: https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/st-paul-fd-investigating-suspected-arson-at-islamic-center-on-dale-street/
Prime-age workers are flooding back into the workforce. Older workers are staying home
Adriana Belmonte·Senior Distribution Editor, Yahoo Finance, 5/12/23
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prime-age-workers-are-flooding-back-into-the-workforce-older-workers-are-staying-home-131339316.html
LFPR = Labor Force Participation rates
The graphs are fascinating so I'm listing them. What is below the "GRAPH" line in each case is Progree's impression of what's most interesting about the graph.
Always remember that for plain ol' LFPR, that is age 16 to infinity, yes including centenarians, and are affected by the general aging of the workforce, the rapidly increasing average age of the senior component of the population, and of course boomer retirements. The age 55+ is also increasingly average older age too.
GRAPH: LFPR of 25-54 years old aka Prime Age, and age 55+ (1/2018 onward) .
Age 25-54 is at 83.3%, equal to the pre-pandemic high of January 2020 and the highest rate since September 2008
GRAPH: Job Openings and Hires. (9/2016 onward)
Job openings have fallen to lowest since April '21. But this is still way up from what preceded April 2021
GRAPH: LFPR of: Hispanics/Latinos, Blacks, Whites (1/2019 onward).
Hispanics/Latinos are about 5 percentage points higher than whites, Blacks about 2 percentage points higher than whites in a recent upsurge. Remember the labor force participation rate is the percentage of the age 16+ population (in this graph) that is employed or is actively seeking work (more than just looking at job listings is required to be included in this). Something to keep in mind when some redneck says "them uhh multicultural types are lazy and don't want to work nowadays".
GRAPH: LFPR (1/1971 onward)
Also included is a lot of blah blah about the factors that may be depressing older people's LFPR and holding some back of all ages (compared to say the peak decades ago - the prime age peak was around 2000). I won't attempt to summarize all that or excerpt-icize all that.
Here's a dump of many LFPR data series
The LFPR is the Employed + jobless people who have looked for work in the last 4 weeks (and say they want a job and are able to take one if offered. Looking for work involves more than just looking at job listings). All divided by the civilian non-institutional population age 16+ (in the case of the regular LFPR, or divided by the civilian non-institutional population of whatever age, gender, race etc. for the various sub-demographic measures. For example. the LFPR of age 25-54 females is the number of those employed or actively seeking work divided by the civilian non-institutional population of age 25-54 females.)
SA means Seasonally adjusted. NSA means Not Seasonally Adjusted
LFPR - Labor Force Participation Rate for some age groups
16+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300000
16-24: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11324887 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01324887
25-34: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300089 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300089
25-54: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300060
55-64: -------------------- NSA: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300095
55+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11324230 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01324230
65+: SA: ---------------- NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300097
[] Labor Force Participation Rate (prime age 25-54) by gender
All: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060
Men: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300061
Women: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300062
[] Labor Force Participation Rate (age 16+) by gender
ALL: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
Men: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300001
Women: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300002
[] Labor Force Participation Rates, Blacks, Whites,
Black LFPR: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300006
White LFPR: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300003
LFPR age 25-54: LNS11300060 & LNU01300060 There are no SA timeseries available for black and white
Blacks: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300066 (no SA),
Whites: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300063 (no SA),
PPI Graphs and links (with yesterday's CPI graph at the bottom)
-------^^-DARN, that should read APR 2022, not APR 2023
Rolling 3 month average of CORE PPI (annualized), last 6 readings: 3.4%, 2.9%, 4.5%, 4.0%, 3.8%, 2.2%
The big January +0.6% reading dropped out of the 3 month average, helping to drop the 3 month average thru April by more than 1.5 percentage points
Latest PPI summary http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
Producer prices front page: http://www.bls.gov/ppi/
Producer Price Index (PPI), seasonally adjusted http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4?output_view=pct_1mth
OLD CORE PPI - Producer Price Index, seasonally adjusted - Final demand goods less foods and energy -
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD413?output_view=pct_1mth
CORE PPI - Producer Price Index, seasonally adjusted - Final demand less foods. energy. and trade services -
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49116?output_view=pct_1mth
I use the latter Core PPI (final demand less foods, energy, and trade services) because that's what the BLS features in its news release).
Compare to yesterday's CPI report which is pretty much been flatlined for several months at more than double the Fed's 2% target
All about yesterday's CPI: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143072605#post5
Graphs. Links. Rolling 3 month averages
CPI: . . . . April: +0.4% (March: +0.1%), 12 months: +4.9%
CORE CPI: April: +0.4% (March: +0.4%), 12 months: +5.5%
SOME 12 month changes: Energy: -5.1%, Food: +7.7%,
Rolling 3 month averages thru April, latest 6 values (annualized)
CPI: . . . . 4.5% 3.3% 3.5% 4.1% 3.8% 3.2%
Core CPI: 5.0% 4.3% 4.6% 5.2% 5.1% 5.1%
BLS's Monthly CPI report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
Some excerpts:
The food index was unchanged in April, as it was in March. The index for food at home fell 0.2 percent over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.4 percent
CPI Index: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
CPI Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0?output_view=pct_1mth
Core CPI Index: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E
Core CPI Monthly Changes: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E&output_view=pct_1mth
To view 3 month changes, 6 month changes, year-over-year changes of data.bls.gov time series, click on "More Formatting Options" on the upper right, and check the appropriate checkboxes.
Real average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory workers http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032
Real average hourly earnings of private sector workers http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000013
A more reliable gauge of wages and salaries:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143067288#post4
So real wages and salaries have finally turned up in the last 2 quarters.
The last reading is 3.7% below the peak, and 3.4% below the Q1.2021 value.
Source: https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2018/02/are-wages-increasing-or-decreasing
Unfortunately the Employment Cost Index comes out only once a quarter. So we will have to wait until July to get the next quarterly report.
Jackie Little, suspected in mosque fires, vandalizing Rep. Ilhan Omar's office, arrested
The suspect who allegedly set two fires at mosques in south Minneapolis last week has been arrested and now faces a federal arson charge, according to the U.S. Attorney's Office in Minnesota.
Jackie Little, 36, was charged by warrant earlier this week in Hennepin County in connection with a fire at Masjid Al Rahma Islamic Center.
A federal complaint accuses Little of starting a fire in the bathroom at the Masjid Omar Islamic Center April 23, as well as in a hallway at Masjid Al Rahma a day later. A representative of Masjid Al Rahma told investigators the fire caused "tens of thousands of dollars" in damages, the complaint states.
Per the complaint, Little's mother told investigators he "extensively harassed a Muslim female" in the past and "has had a fascination with fire from a young age." She said she suspected him in "several unreported arson events."
Little's mother identified him in surveillance footage of the arsons. Plymouth police also recognized Little from a previous arson investigation.
More: https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/minneapolis-mosque-fires-suspect-arrested/
-The article also discusses the vandalizing of Rep. Ilhan Omar's office
-CAIR (Minnesota Council on American-Islamic Relations) has gotten enough in donations to hire a full-time professional who will work with the 92 mosques in the state to apply for grants for safety measures
-Little will make his first court appearance Monday (that's today). Pic below.
- Good news video at the link
YW 😊 Busy day economy wise: Personal Income, Personal Spending, Employment Cost Index,
Consumer Sentiment, and PCE inflation.
I'll be particularly interested in looking at the Employment Cost Index as it is said to be a much better indicator of wages and compensation than the usual go-to metric of average hourly earnings that comes out on first Fridays (usually). The ECI is said to looks at trends in the same occupations, whereas average hourly earnings gets distorted by job losses or gains occurring in certain sectors more than others; last hired first fired stuff (in the pandemic that caused the averages to soar). Whatever. I'm saying this off the top of my head, there are better explanations out there.
The downside of the ECI is that it's quarterly - meaning a long wait for updates, and then the updates have some old data in them.
The AP story I linked to has just this on today's ECI report:
That looks good because the CPI rose 0.94% in the last 3 months, and the PCE 0.98%. So that means an actual real (inflation-adjusted) increase, for a change.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.nr0.htm
Their table shows the 12 month inflation-adjusted number is -0.2%. At a glance I don't see their inflation-adjusted 3 month number anywhere.
==================================================================
From: https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/us-wages-grew-fastest-pace-decades-2021-prices-grew-even-more
By fixing workforce composition, the ECI provides a more accurate picture of what is actually happening to wages.
[1] The Pandemic’s Effect on Measured Wage Growth, The WHite House, 4/19/21
https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2021/04/19/the-pandemics-effect-on-measured-wage-growth/
=====================================================
This particular one is inflation-adjusted wage and salaries for private sector workers.
Note the build-up to the Q2.2020 peak. Then it plateaued through Q1.2021, President Biden's first quarter, then went down.
Finally it has been turning up since a local bottom in Q3.2022 for a couple of quarters.
The last reading is 3.7% below the peak, and 3.4% below the Q1.2021 value.
Source: https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2018/02/are-wages-increasing-or-decreasing
I tediously moused over point by point gathering the data from their graph (the numbers for each point pop up, so I didn't have to "read" the graph like back in middle school). Edit: There's a "Download data" link at the lower left of the second graph at the Source that I had been aware of and had clicked and thought it was just downloading a PDF file of the page. But it turned out it was offering to download the Excel data for the graph which is of course what I wanted. So I did that and verified that the data was the same, to within 0.0 accuracy, as used for my graph, but I went ahead and replaced my old data with it (since it has a few more digits to the right of the decimal, and heck why not).
The source link just above also compares to inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings and also to inflation-adjusted median usual earnings of full-time workers.
This (the ECI) is reportedly the Fed's favorite wage and salary indicator as explained earlier in the post.
Inflation Graphs
The PCE Inflation report came out today, Friday 4/28/23. It was good on the overall inflation (see the red bars in the below graph), but the core PCE inflation still remains high, and has not come down much in recent months -- see the blue bars.
The Federal reserve's favorite inflation gauge for projecting FUTURE inflation has been the core PCE (which is the PCE less food and energy). It's not that food and energy are unimportant, but are quite volatile from month to month. The core measure is thought to be better for projecting trends into the future.
Below is the CORE PCE inflation trend -- the rolling 3 month average and the rolling 6 month average
The rolling 3 month average should improve quite a bit next month when the January +0.6% number falls outside the 3 month period.
*********LINKS
PCE News release: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm
The above shows the last 5 months. I found the latest 12 months (and way beyond) at FRED:
PCE: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI
CORE PCE: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE
The rolling 3 month and 6 month figures are calculated from the index values from the above FRED series for the CORE PCE (not from doing one digit math averages).
Consumer Price Index (CPI) released April 12
For comparison purposes, here is the most recent consumer price index graph (through March, released April 12)
CPI - https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth
CORE CPI - http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E&output_view=pct_1mth
(Choose "More Formatting Options" at the upper right of the page for other views such as rolling averages of past 12 months, past 6 months, past 3 months)
Inflation measures - last 3 months annualized
. . REGULAR CORE
PCE 4.00% 4.85%
CPI 3.82% 5.11%
PPI -0.28% 3.61% (Producer Price Index, aka Wholesale Prices)
Cooling wholesale prices should ideally be reflected in the PCE and CPI in the next month or two, but seems not to be that good of a predictor.
Interestingly it says that rents carry twice the weight in the CPI as in the PCE.
This is an excellent summary not only of the PCE inflation report that came out today, but also of the Employment Cost Index and the Personal Income and Personal Consumption Expenditures (consumer spending) reports that were also released today.
Here are some excerpts from the inflation part --
The index, which excludes volatile food and energy costs to capture “core” prices, rose 0.3% from February to March and 4.6% from a year earlier — still far above the Fed’s 2% target rate. Some Fed officials are concerned that core inflation hasn’t declined much since reaching 4.7% in July.
Overall prices ticked up just 0.1% from February to March, the smallest monthly rise since last July and down from a 0.3% increase from January to February, Friday's Commerce Department report showed. Compared with a year ago, inflation slowed to just 4.2% from 5% in February, though much of that decline reflected lower gas prices. That is the lowest year-over-year overall inflation figure in nearly two years.
The Fed is thought to monitor the inflation gauge that was issued Friday, called the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, even more closely than it does the government’s better-known consumer price index. Typically, the PCE index shows a lower inflation level than CPI. In part, that’s because rents, which have been among the biggest drivers of inflation, carry twice the weight in the CPI that they do in the PCE.
The PCE index showed that food prices dropped 0.2% from February to March. Gas costs plummeted 3.7%, which partly reflected seasonal changes. Prices at the pump have since increased in many states.
The latest inflation figures point to the dilemma confronting officials at the Federal Reserve: Across the economy, price increases for many goods have slowed significantly. And some previous drivers of inflation, notably clogged supply chains, have eased. Yet prices for many services, including restaurants, auto insurance and hotel rooms, are still surging, fueled by robust demand from consumers who in many cases have enjoyed rising wages.
Graph: real (inflation-adjusted) retail sales
Advance Real Retail and Food Services Sales (RRSFS) (1982-84 dollars)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRSFS
The bottom is April 2020, the peak is March 2021. Very interesting how Covid / stimulus money pushed it way up above pre-pandemic levels to the March 2021 peak, and since then its been treading water at best, but still above the level of the pre-pandemic trend line.
====== The below are NOT adjusted for inflation: =======
Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade and Food Services (RSAFS) (FRED) - this matches "retail sales" in media reports
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RSAFS
Percent change from prior month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MARTSMPCSM44X72USS
Links to data series with graphs. Note: the *CORE* CPI is +0.4% in March
(it's a 4.7% annualized rate when calculated with the actual index values) and its rolling 3 month average is 5.1% annualized. This 3 month average was 5.2% annualized in February. So RECENT CORE inflation still seems stuck at around 5%. (Reminder: the Fed uses core measures to predict future inflation, whether we like it or not, although specifically they target the core PCE, not the core CPI https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143053501#post5 )
CPI news release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CPI time series: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
Monthly increases: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth
CORE CPI: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E
Monthly increases: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E&output_view=pct_1mth
CPI excluding shelter - https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0L2
FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SA0L2
Core CPI excluding shelter - I sure would like this time series, but apparently I haven't found one yet. It's said to be a Fed favorite.
Table 3 has CPI ex shelter, as well as Core ex shelter https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t03.htm
Rent (SA) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SEHA
Fred: (SA) Rent of Primary Residence in U.S. City Average https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SEHA
(NSA) CUUR0000SEHA
SA is seasonally adjusted. NSA is Not seasonally adjusted
Real average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory workers
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032
private workers: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000013
In all of the BLS ones, one can change/add 1 month, 2 month, 3 month, 6 month and 12 month rolling averages by clicking "More Formatting Options" at the top right and checking the appropriate check boxes
Yup, they sure were serious about meeting the 2% target
Below is a graph of the Federal Reserve's target interest rate and the CPI from 4/1998 to 12/2001
# CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
(In "More Formatting Options" at the upper right one can change/add 2 month, 3 month, 6 month, and 12 month rolling averages, as well as show the 1 month changes. All with graphs.
# Fed Funds Target Rate (until 2008) -- https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTAR
(Context: it spent most of late 94 to late fall 98 at above 5%),
Per the NBER, the recession began March 2001.
I suspect likewise that nowadays the Fed is serious about the 2% target, but mindful of not crashing the banks. Core PCE is well over 4% on a rolling averages basis. https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143053501#post5
I'm frankly surprised that so many think the Fed is going to let inflation sit at more than twice their target rate, and that the 2% target is just for shits and giggles.
A 3.5% inflation rate (the peak plateau level shown in the above graph) may not be red-hot, but it's enough to cut the purchasing power of the dollar in half in about 20 years, and down to a quarter in 40 years.
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