RandySF
RandySF's JournalHuffPost's Senate Forecast: It's ugly.
AK: 63% R
AR: 73% R
CO: 60% R
GA: 66% R
IA: 57% R
KS: 50/50 No Forecast.
KY: 74% R
LA: 66% R
NC: 55% D
NH: 63% D
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2014/senate-outlook
MI: Absentee ballots show percentage of turnout that is 'unexpected,' says Genesee County clerk
FLINT, MI --The percentage of returned absentee ballots for municipalities in Genesee County is between 60 to 86 percent, according to numbers released by Genesee County Clerk's office Friday, Oct. 31.
County Clerk-Register John Gleason called the returns "unexpected" and said the percentage is better than many election years that feature the gubernatorial race.
"These numbers are nudging up to the presidential turnout," Gleason said.
While absentee ballots need to be received by municipalities by 8 p.m. on Tuesday, many of the cities and townships in the county have already had 70 percent of their absentee ballots returned.
The highest in the county is Forest Township, with 86 percent of absentee ballots returned.
Meanwhile, the city of Flint remains the lowest, with 60 percent of the ballots returned.
http://www.mlive.com/news/flint/index.ssf/2014/10/absentee_ballots_show_percenta.html
Rick Snyder is skipping his own bus tour.
LANSING, MI — Michigan Republicans kicked off a 17-stop bus tour in Lansing that will go across the state in the final days leading up to the Nov. 4 election.
“Four days from now we’re going to have an outstanding Tuesday,” Attorney General Bill Schuette told the crowd. “We’re going to win it all on Tuesday with your help, ladies and gentlemen.”
The Lansing stop included several top ticket candidates, including U.S. Senate candidate Terri Lynn Land, Lt. Gov Brian Calley, Secretary of State Ruth Johnson, and others. They wore matching “Comeback Team 2014” jackets.
Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder and party Chair Bobby Schostak were not at the Lansing event but will join the tour at other stops.
http://www.mlive.com/lansing-news/index.ssf/2014/11/michigan_republicans_kick_off.html#incart_river
Nate Cohn: NC Early Turnout more Diverse, Democratic than 2010
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More than one million votes cast in North Carolina, and they show a more diverse and Democratic turnout than 2010
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/528611713466515457
Minnesotans are voting at rate of 10,000 ballots a day
For more than 160,000 Minnesota voters, Election Day has come and gone.
In record numbers for a midterm election, Minnesotans are using absentee ballot and mail voting to cement their choices well before most polls open. During the past week alone, absentee ballots have been flooding in at the rate of 10,000 per day.
A Star Tribune analysis shows that those voting absentee tend to be older and are regular voters. About 70 percent of this year’s absentee voters cast ballots in 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2012. Another 17 percent voted in at least three of those elections. Only a sliver of those voters consistently used absentee ballots in the past.
“These are people who tend to vote both in midterms and in general elections,” said Tom Erickson, deputy campaign manager for Republican Mike McFadden’s U.S. Senate campaign. “These are people that are not independents. They tend to be Republicans or Democrats.”
They also tend to be older. More than half of all early voters are over 65, according to the Star Tribune’s analysis of absentee ballots accepted so far. Just in the last week, younger voters have started flooding election offices.
http://www.startribune.com/politics/statelocal/281148862.html?page=1&c=y
Wake County, NC: Hour-long wait time at early voting sites.
Wake, NC Elections
?@WakeElections
All sites currently have wait times of 60+ minutes. All voters in line at 1 PM will be allowed to vote. http://WakeVotesEarly.com
https://twitter.com/WakeElections/status/528581271023534080
Huffingtonpost Governor Forecast
Agan, key races:
AK: 50/50 No Forecast.
CO: 54% D
CT: 50/50 No Forecast.
FL: 51% D
GA: 68% R
IL: 55% R
KS: 65% D
MA: 61% R
ME: 51% R
MI: 56% R
NH: 61% D
WIL 57% R
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2014/governors-outlook
Conflicting Polls in Massachusetts
A new Western New England University poll in Massachusetts finds Charlie Baker leading Martha Coakley (D) in the race for governor, 46% to 41%.
A new University of Massachusetts poll has Coakley ahead, 47% to 44%.
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2014/11/01/conflicting_polls_in_massachusetts.html
Nate Silver's gubernatorial forecast.
I'll just list the key races.
Conn: 50/50 No Call
ME: 56% D
CO: 59% D
FL: 60% D
AK: 56% I
IL: 59% D
MI: 72% R
WI: 76% R
KS: 81% D
MA: 80% R
GA: 87% R
RI: 76% D
NH: 98% D
ARK: 96% R
MD: 93% D
PA: 99% D
HI: 97% D
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/governors-forecasts-a-lot-of-close-races/
Sam Wang: Brownback is going down.
Incumbents headed for probable defeat (>3 percentage point margin): Brownback (R-KS), Corbett (R-PA).
Incumbents under threat (<3 percentage points): Parnell (R-AK), Deal (R-GA), Snyder (R-MI), Walker (R-WI), LePage (R-ME), Scott (R-FL), Quinn (D-IL), Malloy (D-CT), Hickenlooper (D-CO).
Open governorships, clear lead (>3 percentage points): Raimondo (D-RI), Baker (R-MA), Hutchinson (R-AR).
http://election.princeton.edu/2014/11/01/governors-incumbents-still-at-risk/
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Gender: MaleHometown: Detroit Area, MI
Home country: USA
Current location: San Francisco, CA
Member since: Wed Oct 29, 2008, 02:53 PM
Number of posts: 59,205
