August 9, 2015

#NerdScreen: Who Won (And Lost) Thursday's Debate

Source: NBC Meet the Press

Horse race:

Trump 23%, Cruz 13%, Carson 11%, Fiorina 8%, Rubio 8%, Bush 7%, Walker 7%, Paul 5%, Huckabee 4%, Kasich 2%, Perry 2%

Who won the debate:

Fiorina 22%, Trump 18%, Rubio 13% Cruz 12%, Carson 8%, Huckabee 5%, Paul 3%, Walker 3%, Bush, 2%, Christie 2%, Kasich 2%


Read more: http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/-nerdscreen--who-won--and-lost--thursdays-debate-501119555665

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This poll employs an online methodology so take it for what it is worth (not as good as a phone poll but better than the nonsense that's currently floating out there).

I love that the big-money Republican establishment candidates are tied for sixth in the horse race and were found to have won the debate by 3% and 2% of those surveyed.

I also love that three of the top 5 in BOTH polls have NEVER held any public office. Conclusion: even Republicans hate Republican office holders.

August 8, 2015

Trump represents every idiot who forwards emails titled "Obamacare death panels" or "IMPEACH OBAMA!"

or "the federal government is invading Texas to grab our guns" or "Benghazi was the cover-up of an attempted coup" or "Obama's Kenyan birth certificate."

The Republicans built a network of misinformed xenophobic reactionaries who will vote in every election out of fear stirred up by the Limbaugh-Hannity-Beck consortium because that is how the Republicans compensate for the fact that fewer than half the nation supports their bullshit -- higher turn out rates bolstered my panic fostered among the ignorant and misinformed.

Trump speaks to these people who know of no measure of success beyond cash money, stadium-sized houses, reality TV stardom, and young blond third wives. Trump's campaign only sounds stupid to someone who is smarter than the average birther waiving a Confederate battle flag while picketing Planned Parenthood.

Trump says offensive things that make perfect sense to his constituency, and so when Megyn Kelly or Rick Perry or Lindsey Graham criticize Trump, they may as well be launching that same criticism in the face of a huge segment of the Republican Party which thinks our president is a Muslim born in Kenya.

Trump cannot win the nomination, but attacking him the way the RNC and Fox News are trying to will only make Trump stronger among his constituency.

The next time you hear some right wing pundit claim that the Trump campaign is over, go to your computer's junk mail folder and find the "IMPEACH OBAMA NOW!" email from your ex-brother-in-law and ask yourself:

"Is the moron who forwarded me this email going to vote for the guy who adopted policies to undermine collective bargaining in Wisconsin or the guy who supported limitations on the civil remedies available for medical negligence in Florida or the guy who called Rosie O'Donnell a pig?"

August 8, 2015

Please tell me your three top pro-Chafee reasons why you support his campaign

Please don't include any reasons that merely show the shortcoming of any other candidate (e.g., I am not interested in hearing that you support Chafee because "Sanders is too ___ and Clinton is not ___ enough and O'Malley is just plain ___&quot .

Also, I know that anyone inclined to respond likely has more than three reasons why they support Chafee. I'm not looking for a list of reasons (there is a campaign website which already provides that data); instead, I am looking for a prioritized list of the top three reasons (actually one reason or two reasons are fine, but I'm not looking for any more than three reasons) for why his supporters have chosen him.

Thank you.

August 8, 2015

Please tell me your three top pro-O'Malley reasons why you support his campaign

Please don't include any reasons that merely show the shortcoming of any other candidate (e.g., I am not interested in hearing that you support O'Malley because "Sanders is too ___ and Clinton is not ___ enough and Chafee is just plain ___&quot .

Also, I know that anyone inclined to respond likely has more than three reasons why they support O'Malley. I'm not looking for a list of reasons (there is a pinned post and a campaign website which already provide that data); instead, I am looking for a prioritized list of the top three reasons (actually one reason or two reasons are fine, but I'm not looking for any more than three reasons) for why his supporters have chosen him.

Thank you.

August 8, 2015

Can anyone familiar with orthodox Mormon and Scientologist beliefs tell me (or direct me to) the

official position that each group holds toward the other group (i.e., what does the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints think of Scientology and what does Scientology think of Mormonism)?

August 8, 2015

Where is the best place to have a potentially offensive religious discussion?

I'm curious about how some representatives of some faiths feel about other faiths. It seems like this has the potential to offend some but I'm curious. What is a good forum to have such a discussion?

August 7, 2015

Jeb Bush's debate reviews are in: "The guy looks like the runny yolk of a fried egg"

I'm not a fan of Camille Paglia, but some of her comments on last night's debate were spot on (and funny):

Jeb Bush

Is there a blander, more boring personality in American politics? The guy looks like the runny yolk of a fried egg. He's trying to be assertive tonight because he's been told he needs to project "passion." But when his lips move, there's still a big blank. Why the heck the major media hails him as the GOP frontrunner is beyond comprehension — except that big money has been showering down on him like powdered sugar on a donut. Why do Jeb's smiles remind me of a dimply grandmother? He could and should have been a high school principal. I don't see him on the world stage, holding the line against ISIS.

Chris Christie

... Christie will never fly as presidential material. He has a braying, jabbering manner like an old-style big-city mayor of the Fiorello La Guardia era. There's something too baby-like about him. I was thinking Fatty Arbuckle? John Belushi? Under the bravado there's a hint of chaos. Maybe it's the mismatch between his ski-jump nose (not what he had in high school) and those bouncy plump lips. Anyhow, aside from his disqualifying history of thuggish behavior, Christie is too Northeastern provincial for nationwide appeal.

Marco Rubio

When he graduates from the college debating team, he will have a rosy future! Oh, er, he's 44 years old? Computer crash! Rubio is very smooth but also oddly slick. He seems caught in a time warp of self-stunted maturation, a son shying away from the Olympus of father-gods. Sorry, but this won't work in the White House. Try again in a decade or two?

Ted Cruz

Way, way too much subtext. Big, strange-looking guy with an almost womanly face. Whip smart but on a monomaniacal mission for world salvation. Announces, to great applause, that his No. 1 attribute is he "will always tell the truth." Red alert: a bruiser of a politician who thinks he has a corner on truth. Cruz's expression is habitually close to a sneer, which he offsets with pleading, faux puppy-dog eyebrows. He knows history and military affairs, but he's no negotiator — he's a General Patton prima donna.

August 7, 2015

CNN: "So, who won the Republican debate?"

CNN asked a wide variety of blather mouths who won the debate, and here's what they said (in summary):

David Gergen: Kasich, Fiorina
Dan Pfeiffer: Rubio (“Loser: Jeb Bush. After several bad weeks, Jeb Bush could really have used a good night. He didn't have it. Bush, like Huntsman in '12 and Dukakis in '88, seems to shrink under the klieg lights. He was nervous, halting, and just painfully uninspiring. Politics in our polarized age is about motivation and Bush gave no indication that he could motivate anyone to get out of bed and vote on a rainy day in November.”)
Tara Setmayer: Rubio (loser: Jeb Bush ”(who terribly underperformed by the way)”; Breakout performance: Carly Fiorina)
Mel Robbins: Trump (Loser: Women)
William Howell: Rubio (Loser: Trump)
Donna Brazile: Trump (losers: Paul, Christie)
Buck Sexton: Rubio, Cruz, Paul and Christie (losers: Bush, Trump, Huckabee and Carson)
Dean Obeidallah: Carson, Bush, “especially” Trump, Kasich. Fiorina
Maria Cardona: Fiorina, Kasich, “and Hillary Clinton for all of the fodder the candidates gave her for the general election campaign”) (Loser: Bush)
Julian Zelizer: “Who was the biggest loser? American democracy. This is no way to pick who will run for president. Democracy deserves a more serious conversation.”
Tom Rogan: Fiorina , Walker (loser: Paul)
Raul A. Reyes: Kasich (loser: Walker)
Karlyn Bowman: Rubio, Walker, Carson (loser: “the GOP … the party needs to rethink these cattle calls”)

August 6, 2015

The Daily Beast: "It’s Gonna Be a Bloodbath: A GOP Debate Guide"

Topics discussed in the article include:

1. Which Donald Trump shows up?
2. Will the “kids table” be better than the “adult table”?
3. Protests or interruptions.
4. How does Jeb do?
5. Do the candidates go after Trump?
6. Unholy alliances?
7. Zingers?
8. Surprises.
9. Gaffes?
10. Will candidates break the debate rules?
11. How will Fox News do?
12. Are the debates a net plus for Republicans?

Link

The part that caught my eye was their proposed question: "What if someone were to ask Trump if he thinks Cruz (who was born in Canada) is eligible to be president?"

PLEASE PRAY TO WHATEVER DEITY OR FICTITIOUS CONSTRUCT YOU PREFER AND ASK THAT SOMEONE INQUIRES ABOUT TRUMP'S VIEWS ON CRUZ'S ELIGIBILITY FOR THE PRESIDENCY!

August 5, 2015

Nate Silver's Totally Subjective Presidential Odds (Early August Edition)

Nate Silver, Harry Enten, and Katherine Miller of Buzzfeed informally handicap the field.

In summary, nobody likes Trump's chances at all. Bush and Walker are projected as the two favorites (Silver has both Bush and Walker at 28%; Enten has Bush and Walker at 30% [but his numbers add up to 110%]; Miller has Bush at 35% and Walker at 25%). They all have Rubio at third (Silver at 21%; Enten at 25%; Miller at 20%). Silver and Enten have Kasich in 4th (at 6% and 8%, respectively), and Miller projects Cruz, Christie, and Paul at 4th at 5% each. None of them handicap any other candidate above 3%.