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Loki Liesmith

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Member since: Thu May 26, 2016, 08:07 AM
Number of posts: 4,597

About Me

God of lies. Like math.

Journal Archives

Apparently Tara Reade's dad wrote a novel with a sex scene that seems very familiar

This is, to say the least, curious.

on edit: I'm trying to obfuscate the link a little as it's graphic and I don't want people to be upset...


Posted by Loki Liesmith | Thu Apr 30, 2020, 08:51 AM (55 replies)

IHME COVID-19 deaths model was low by 3K yesterday, looks like down by 4K today by days end

I don't know why they haven't updated their parameters in more than a week. We will be over 45K, maybe close to 46K by the end of today.

Posted by Loki Liesmith | Tue Apr 21, 2020, 04:32 PM (16 replies)

IHME model needs updating badly


Their median estimate is still 60k deaths between now and August.

If we are lucky we are just peaking now worth ~ 40k dead. Assuming a completely symmetric peak which is a best case scenario that’s at least 80k deaths by midsummer. But we know the plateau on case growth is a long one, 80k has got to be a lower bound.

On the upside their upper bound confidence envelope is really high so at least they’ve got the upside risk right.

On edit: their lower bound estimate is LOWER than the actual number of deaths right now. What does that even mean?
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Sun Apr 19, 2020, 11:34 AM (17 replies)

Feel safe to say we've hit linear growth in C19 deaths this week

The data from the last few days is going to be clunky because of the usual weekend lag in reporting and Easter but even given that it seems fair to say that we have successfully made the derivative of the new deaths curve constant. Maybe even close to zero. The main questions now for me: 1) how long is the plateau/descent. Long tail gets us to 100k verified dead. 2) what is the temperature effect on R? It looks to be real. Is it big enough to explain the relatively fewer cases in the American South? Can we hope for a summer respite?

This will be an informative week. We should know how good the IHME model is by week’s end.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Mon Apr 13, 2020, 03:23 PM (21 replies)

Starting to look like we may be under 100K US deaths given most up to date modeling.

A Sunday update of a prominent COVID-19 forecasting model suggests that fewer lives will be lost during the first wave of the coronavirus outbreak than previously thought.

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) now predicts that 81,766 people will die of COVID-19 in the U.S. through early August. When the model was last updated, on April 2, it predicted 11,765 deaths more deaths, for a total of 93,531.

The model, which has been cited by the White House, relies on numbers from China, Italy, Spain, and areas around the U.S. The change in prediction is due to “a massive infusion of new data,” IHME director Dr. Christopher Murray said in a press release.

This is fantastic news. It's been clear to me for a while that the exponential trend was fading.

Posted by Loki Liesmith | Tue Apr 7, 2020, 11:59 AM (121 replies)
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