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Dr. Jack

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Member since: Fri Jan 20, 2017, 01:43 PM
Number of posts: 571

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Biden seems to be quietly building a massive advantage in key areas

More polls out today, obviously. A very highly rated poll out of NC shows Biden up by 3 points. A decent and stable result. And that seems to be the picture that's building Trump has been severely outplayed. Biden seems to be consolidating his lead in key areas. Polls out this week show him doing very well in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida, NE 2 and ME 2. While trump is distracted by playing tin pot dictator and the right bases their entire election strategy on conspiracy theories and dismissing the polls as "fake", Biden has been quietly building up a massive advantage in key regions. By the time the Republicans realize they have been completely outflanked, it's going to be way too late for them to do anything about it. For all of the tough talk, dominating news cycles, mocking Biden and the democrats, putting on boat parades, trying to attack people's ability to vote, Trump's campaign, to put it in military terms, has likely been completely encircled but they don't know it yet.

Saw a great point made about Rasmussen and the pollsters that were "right" in 2016

I was reading comments on a political betting market this even and of course all of the Republicans are sooooper excited about that Rasmussen poll that shows the orange turd up by 1 point. Of course that ignores all of the other polls out today showing Biden by up to close to double digits. But I'm preaching to the choir on those points.

But here is the point one user made that is absolutely perfect when it comes to those right wing polls that "got 2016 right" that I never thought of before.

"The entire "Republican Pollster" industry is just a bunch of grifters who got lucky in 2016. These kinds of people were pushing these kind of polls before maybe knowing that, eventually, there would be probably eventually be an election where Republicans outperformed polls and now they're hanging onto that."

For me that was a "oh shit, that makes perfect sense" moment for me. Looking back, these pollsters were saying the same shit in 2012, 2008, 2004, 2000, etc. Just showing very good results for Republicans that are always way off. They got lucky in 2016. It was a coincidence, not some brilliant secret knowledge about the electorate. That definitely destroys the "Rasmussen got 2016 right and that is why they should be trusted in 2020".

Trump's secret weapon

I was reading an article from Harry Enten this morning about the state of the presidential race. He pointed out that Biden's lead over Trump in the polls has been the most consistent of any presidential election since modern polling started in 1940. Biden has, for the most part, been ahead in the polls by the same margin the Dems won the house by in 2018, roughly 7-8 points for over 500 days now. The electorate, he points out, has shifted by 5 points to the democrats since 2016 nationally and in swing states. That has pretty much been the case since early in his term and nothing that has happened since then has changed those numbers. Trump has been sitting at that 7-8 point deficit for years now. Unless he does something in the next 50 days, that he hasn't been able to do in the past 3.5 years, he will lose in a landslide.

However, I read every single day "anything can happen between now and the election!" "the outcome is far from certain!", "Trump can close the gap like he did in 2016!", etc, etc, etc.

So that makes me wonder. If Dems are worried that Trump will close the gap, somehow, in the final 50 days, something he hasn't been able to do at all in about 1200 days, no matter what has happened, and Republicans are fanatically confident that Trump will somehow, in these last 6 weeks, overcome that 7-8 point gap, what is Trump's secret miracle weapon to do that? What is this brilliant, secret Trump strategy that Dems fear and Republicans are 100% confident will come that is going to save Trump's reelection at the last possible second? Because personally I don't see such a secret, miracle strategy existing at all and trump is heading for a significant defeat. But people are still saying Trump can turn things around and if that is the case, his brilliant, super secret plan to win the election has to exist.

So what is it?


The coming disaster for Trump that no one is talking about

There are so many self inflicted wounds and unforced errors by Trump and his team that it seems like some that are right there, out in the open for everyone to see, still fly under the radar until said disaster comes and goes. With everything going on right now, coronavirus, the shitty economy, social unrest, Trump's campaign running out of money, the disastrous Republican convention, the Woodward tapes, the DHS whistleblower, calling troops losers and suckers, picking public fights with military leaders, it can be easy to forget just how badly Trump's team is fucking up the debates.

We are just a few weeks away from the first presidential debate and the trump teams strategy is barreling headfirst into a total disaster. Trumps plan is almost stunning in its absolute stupidity. I'm sure we have all heard about the debates being Trump's last chance to turn the race around. That's a pretty dubious claim seeing as debates rarely have much of an impact but then again that really is all trump has left. Everyone is hyper aware that Barr is going to try to pull some kind of October surprise or that the white house is going to come out with some miracle coronavirus vaccine. Most Americans are going to likely be very skeptical of any sudden revelations coming from this white house so close to the election.

So the debates are maybe Trump's last flicker of hope to finally close the rather massive gap in the polls and somehow fart out a very, very close victory, even if that is a desperate strategy. However, his plan is already doomed to fail and fail badly.

There is a dumb game that political parties play before debates, which I'm sure most of us are aware of, where they try to lower expectations for their candidate whole raising them for their opponents. In 2004, I remember the democrats talking about how amazing W was at debating whole saying Kerry had issues being too wooden and dry. Same with 2008. Obamas team played up his "inexperience" while talking about McCains mad skills. And the Republicans do the exact same thing. It's pretty obvious but also a smart move. Candidates with super high expectations tend to be seen as the loser of the debate. It happened in 2000 to Gore.

But 2020 is different. Biden and his team are certainly playing the typical game. There was an article today about how nervous Biden is to debate Trump, from Biden's team. But of course President Narcissism would never allow anyone on his team try to downplay his skills, so over the last few months team douchebag has touted Trump as one of the greatest debaters in American history, who will absolutely crush Biden. They say Biden is nearly catatonic from dementia and will likely either not show up for the debates, not be able to get through the entire debate, or more extreme theories, will be replaced as the nominee before the debates.

I don't know about you, but I've seen Trump debate and I have seen Biden debate. In fact I saw Biden debate earlier this year. He did quite well. He's likable, sharp, and really knows his stuff. In 2016, I recall Trump being a loud, rambling psychopath who couldn't stay on topic and seemed to know almost nothing about anything important. His skills at debating are nonexistent and he can't even seem to stand up straight or breathe very well most of the time.

And this is the looming disaster I don't think get enough attention. We all know trump isnt going to turn his campaign around by debating Biden. But now he has the added problem, of his own making, where if he doesn't give one of the greatest debate performances in American history and Biden doesnt collapse on the floor and slips into a coma on live tv, people are going to say Trump lost badly. Instead of being an opportunity to show he is at least minimally competent ( a tall order for Donny Two Strokes) he now has to put in a performance that would put Lincoln or JFK to shame, while Biden just has to show up.

Republicans are in the middle of a scorched earth retreat

A new article out today from The Week which proposes that the Republicans are ready to let the economy collapse. This is after their insulting stimulus bill failed to come close to passing in the Senate. I think all evidence points to the Republicans admitting they are going to lose the election (the smarter ones, not Trump who is totally delusional). Take all of the fear and emotion out of the election, all of the PTSD around 2016, and look at things objectively, Biden is almost certainly going to win. The Democrats are also going to keep the House and seem more likely than not to take the Senate. It doesn't matter if the Republicans pass a stimulus bill or not, so they won't. If they thought it would help Trump's reelection chances or help them keep the Senate, we would have had a 2nd stimulus bill months ago. Instead, the Republicans are in the middle of a scorched earth retreat. They are leaving Biden and the incoming Democrats a massive mess to deal with. That way it will be more difficult to actually start working on a progressive agenda. And when the 2022 midterms come along, they will blame the Dems for the state of the economy and try to demoralize Dem voters by saying "see, the Democrats have had total control of the federal government and haven't enacted the agenda they promised". They are going to burn the country to the ground. The Democrats are going to win this year but the toll is going to be absolutely catestrophic.


Are Republicans gearing up to abandon Trump?

There is this Vanity Fair article from early July saying people around McConnell were told that if Trump didn't turn around his crappy polling numbers that the Senate GOP would basically leave Trump to his fate ( no more defending him, no fundraising for him, etc). They said back in late June or early July that the deadline to turn his campaign around was Labor Day. Here is the article


Obviously we are past Labor Day and Trump's polling position seems to be even worse than it was back then, not better. In the last few days, we have had revelations about what Trump said about the military in private, the Woodward recordings, and now the DHS whistleblower. I don't know how much of these new revelations about Trump are secretly from Republicans, if at all. But the timing all seems interesting. We get past Labor day and suddenly trump is under siege. Is there any evidence or does anyone think that the process laid out in that article is happening? Open the floodgates on information that was being held back, the Republicans can say "enough is enough we are done with Trump!" or at least distance themselves and trump is left to his fate while the GOP attempts to salvage what they can in other races?

Is Trump's reelection campaign on the verge of collapsing?

There is a lot of news swirling around the past few days that makes me wonder if Trumpís reelection campaign is about to totally collapse. There is news that his campaign is nearly bankrupt due to stupid investments and I would imagine, embezzlement from pretty much everyone involved. He has pulled all ads from pretty much every state he needs to win, likely again because his campaign is completely broke. Bob Woodward and The Washington Post have recordings of Trump from early February talking about how bad coronavirus would get but he chose to lie to the public about the seriousness of it. Of course we are getting more and more reports of Trump shit talking the military both in private and in public. National polls and state polls today appear to be moving aggressively in Bidenís direction. And there was that report from a few months ago that Senate Republicans were getting frustrated with Trump dragging their campaigns down and that they would start to abandon him after Labor Day if polls didnít improve. Not sure if we are seeing that yet but we are past Labor Day and Trumpís polling numbers are as shitty as ever.

Not to celebrate too early or to let our guard down but I do wonder if Trumpís entire campaign has reached the point where it is essentially imploded and that his odds of winning are close to nonexistent.

The 2018 Democratic coalition is still intact

We have been seeing a lot of articles about the state of the race between Biden and Dumbass today. Labor day is when polls really start to become historically accurate. And what I have seen a lot of these state of the race analysis is how steady Bidens lead over the demented fat ass is. What I don't know why this is much of a surprise. I think the obvious answer, which has been obvious since summer 2019, it that the coalition that win the Dems the House in 2018 is still intact. That is why Biden has been doing so consistently well for so long. In 2018, the Dems won the overall house popular vote by about 8.5 points. That is the only nationwide election we have had since 2016 and it looks pretty much like the lead Biden has had for the last year and a half, over Trump. Harry Enten pointed out today that Bidens lead has essentially been the same with only minor variations for 500 days in a row. That's because the 2018 coalition never went away. And that is also why the Dems wanted Biden this year. Like I 2018, moderate, low drama Democrats won the day. That is pretty much the definition of Biden.

And that is also why I don't think the polls are going to change or Trump is going to close the gap in the final 2 months. Americans decided years ago who they were going to support in 2020. As long as the Dems went with a safe choice, this was always going to be a Dem +8ish election.

Battle of Lake Travis


What percentage of Trump supporters know he is a shitty president and that's why they like him?

I have to imagine that there are a decent number of people who support trump because they know how much he annoys people and trolls groups they don't like. I don't necessarily think Trump is trying to troll people with his weird shit and actions. I think Trump genuinely believes he is speaking for the majority of the country and is a brilliant leader and a beloved president. I think he is blinded by narcissism and delusion. But are there people who back trump and egg him on precisely because he is pissing off "politically correct" people and causing destruction to institutions that they think are liberal hippie nonsense? And when Trump says something and then immediately contradicts it, they like pretending that him taking both positions makes sense because again it "triggers" people? And also they don't care what Trump says, as long as it causes chaos?

Again in this theory, Trump isn't aware or in on any of this. He's just a destructive idiot they shoved into an office that he is in way over his head for and that's the point.
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