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Dr. Jack

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Member since: Fri Jan 20, 2017, 01:43 PM
Number of posts: 571

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Fox News Poll: Biden +3

New Fox News Poll shows the race tightening significantly from Biden +9 to Biden +3 over the past two weeks. Now at Biden 47% and Trump 44%.

Shoot sorry, I got that wrong. That's from 2008. With a week to go before the election, Fox had a poll where Obama only had a 3 point lead over McCain down from his previous poll of +9. It almost seems like if we just cherry pick polls, we can find all sorts of crazy results. The exact same day, CBS had Obama +11. Pay attention to the averages and don't freak out over random, individual polls. You'll drive yourself insane and it will all be for nothing.


Trump gained 12 million voters yesterday

I am hearing a lot of panic over a poll showing Trump down by 2 points and what that can mean. If that poll is correct, as some people seem to be saying, then we can only assume Trump closed a roughly 11 point national gap, which is close to where 538 had him just 24 hours ago to 2 points. If you are wondering what that means if that did indeed happen is that Trump gained roughly 12 million new voters yesterday. Based on estimates of the projected turnout for 2020, the 9 points trump supposedly made up yesterday translates to 12 million people. Or roughly the entire population of Illinois. If you buy that Trump is suddenly down by only two then you need to also accept that Trump gained about 12 million new supporters yesterday.

Or maybe it's just an outlier and with dozens of polls being released everyday now, maybe a few are going to have some weird results? Maybe let's not try to analyze each and every poll?

Nate Silver wrote this article two days ago about how to stay sane during the final two weeks. Maybe take his advice

5. Don’t pay much attention to individual polls; wait for polling averages to move.
This is perhaps the single piece of advice we give most often at FiveThirtyEight, but it’s especially important in the final couple weeks of a campaign. After a lull this weekend, there are likely to be a lot of polls the rest of the way out. On any given day, it will be possible to take the two or three best polls for Biden and tell a story of his holding or expanding his lead, or the two or three best polls for Trump and make a claim that the race is tightening.

Resist buying too much into those narratives. Instead, turn to polling averages like FiveThirtyEight’s that are smart at distinguishing (ahem) the signal from the noise. We do program our averages to be more aggressive in the closing days of the campaign — so if there’s a shift in the race, our average should start to detect it within a few days. But while there is such a thing as underreacting to news developments,1 the more common problem in the last days of a campaign is false positives, with partisans and the media trying to hype big swings in the polls when they actually show a fairly steady race.


The MAGA crowd have lost their minds

I like to make the rounds to right wing discussion forums to see what they are on about this time. After spending about an hour reading through what the red hats had to say this evening, I have come to the conclusion that they have lost their damn minds. The desperation of their situation and the denial they are in is cranked up to 11. Some of the major highlights include: Trump is going to win California, Alex Jones has proof the Hunter Biden emails are real, Joe Biden and Hunter Biden will be arrested any moment now, OAN is sitting on a major Biden scandal, and general agreement that Sanders supporters are now pro-Trump.

They have themselves whipped into a manic, almost religious like frenzy right now. It is insane to see. They are going to crash so hard on election day.

I never should have doubted Joe Biden

I’ve always liked Joe Biden. I enjoyed watching him do interviews on MSNBC, The Daily Show, and Bill Maher back in the early to mid 2000s. He always seemed like an easy going but smart and hard working guy. I really liked him as Obama’s VP. I thought he did a great job and many of the successes during the Obama years were thanks in no small part to Joe Biden. And yet, when he announced he was running for President in 2019, I was at best luke warm on the idea. I was always going to vote for him if he was the nominee but I wanted him less than pretty much anyone else running. I thought he couldn’t beat Trump. I thought he was past his prime and even a bit of a goof or a fool. I became rather anti-Biden for awhile and after everything I have seen from Joe this year, I have no idea what I was thinking.

I voted for Sanders when the primaries came to my state and that was after Biden was virtually guaranteed to win the nomination. It was a protest against what I thought was a terrible choice for the Democratic nominee. I was still going to vote Biden in the general but I thought we were heading for a huge defeat against Trump regardless.

But then I saw Biden again for who he truly is again. As it became more and more obvious that he was going to be the Democratic nominee, he quickly stepped up and took charge. He showed us what a real leader looked like. And over the Spring, Summer, and Fall, he has show that he isn’t just “a generic Democrat” or “good enough”, he’s an amazing candidate and an amazing man. He is knowledgeable, hard working, and tough. But he is also kind, compassionate, and empathetic. And importantly, he stepped up to take on Donald Trump when he didn’t have to because he is the best man for the job. He knew he was going to need to go through absolute hell to defeat Trump, withstanding fake accusations that he is pedophile and a rapist, and even attacks on his own family. Possibly even his own son’s private pictures and emails being hacked into and leaked from when he was in drug rehab, just in a vain hope by his political enemies that it might damage him.

He stepped up anyway because he has always been the best person to defeat Trump and to save our democracy. Joe Biden is a great man and will make a great President. I’m not just voting against Trump. I am excited to vote for Joe Biden!

Growing up in the early 1990s

I never would have thought that the guy who had a 2 second cameo in Home Alone 2 would end up trying to be a dictator of the United States but like a really weak, shitty one who can't stop having strokes.

It's been 3 days since the NY Post's article

You know, about the "bombshell" Hunter Biden emails that are totally real and not fakey fake bullshit? That earth shattering news of one of the greatest political scandals in history, the Republicans say. I'm sure you remember how Biden's presidential bid is over after these shocking and totally believable revelations.

Well we are starting to get polls after the worst criminal act in American history was exposed by totally not batshit insane Russian stooge Rudy Giuliani. And brace yourselves. Bidens average polling lead at 538 went from 10.3 before the news broke all the way down to 10.6.

Guys we were so close but damn they got us again with emails. When will we learn! Pack it up. It's over. Damn damn damn

This election doesn't feel as rough as predicted

I remember during the primaries that there were predictions for a lot of people that this election was going to be absolutely brutal. Like nothing we have ever seen before. Just the dirtiest, most batshit election we have ever experienced. While it's not quite over yet, am I the only one who thinks it hasn't been as bad as predicted? Sure, Trump is a rambling, racist moron who says a lot of crazy shit but I often find that to be more irritating than threatening. You could point out the deaths from coronavirus but that isn't because of the election. That is because trump is dangerously incompetent.

Maybe I'm numb to the chaos or maybe covid just tamped down a lot of the potential for craziness. Or perhaps we are all used to trump and his bag of tricks by now that he's easy to outflank and counter. And maybe it's because Biden is such an even tempered candidate that the dirty politics and chaos just haven't taken hold? Whatever the case, this election feels more odd and less like the most brutal, batshit election I've ever seen. Am I the only one who think that?

Reminder: The Senate has tons of time to ram through judges and harass Hunter Biden

But they just don't have any time to pass an economic stimulus. Not a single moment to spare. Launching an investigation into clearly fake emails supposedly written random person who isn't in charge of anything important? Yes, there's time for that. Your family is running out of food and can't afford to pay rent? Tough shit. Republicans have conspiracy theories and psychotically right wing judges to focus on.

So they are trying Comey Letter Redux?

Those likely fake Hunter Biden emails that were suddenly "found" right before the election sure seems like Trump is trying to have some kind of repeat of the Comey Letter from 2016. Emails suddenly "found" on a laptop with Republican hopes that it will reignite a dead scandal days before the election and Rudy Giuliani is involved? That describes both the Comey Letter in 2016 and these emails that they are claiming came from Hunter Biden. The GOP really isn't that stupid, right? That is the exact same series of events. Are they really so out of ideas that they are trying to forcibly recreate an event from 4 years ago?

2017 French Presidential Election

I have read articles all year about how this election is just like 2016 or just like 1992 or just like 1984 or just like 1968 or just like 1948. I've also read articles that compare Trump to George HW Bush, Reagan, Jimmy Carter, Herbert Hoover, and even Jeb Bush. Or how Biden is just like Hillary Clinton, Obama, Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan, Jimmy Carter, or George Dewey. There are a lot of claims that this election is like this previous American election or that Biden or Trump are just like such and such politican from our history. But I do wonder if we shouldn't be looking outside of the U.S. to see where this election is headed and I propose we look at France in 2017. There are a lot of parelles with how this election is going and how I think it will end up, except for the final margins being quite so lopsided. In the 2017 French Presidential election they had Le Pen, an ultra right wing populist candidate with little political experience running against a well qualifed moderate. Her campaign was super racist, relied on Russian propaganda, and claimed that the polls were all fake. She had a rabid base of support but was reviled and feared by pretty much everyone else. Macron, her opponent, was a moderate, fairly well liked and smart guy, all be it more run of the mill and less exciting than Le Pen (although that was probably for the best). He was backed by a broad coalition of liberals, moderates, indendents, and even long time conservatives who banded together to block Le Pan from coming close to winning. During the entire run up to election day (especially the run off election) people said the polls couldn't be trusted, that Le Pen could absolutely win, and that the election might be a lot closer than people were thinking. But then she lost by 33 points, which is what the polls predicted.

And that is why I submit to all of you that the 2017 French Presidential election is the closest parallel to the 2020 U.S. Presidential election than any past American election and that Trump and Biden most closely resemble Le Pen and Macron, not any past American presidential candidates. Thoughts?

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