nkpolitics1212
nkpolitics1212's JournalCalifornia electing two new US Senators in 2022?
California's senior US Senator Dianne Feinstein-D is running for re-election in 2018 at the age of 85. If she wins the November runnoff and is able serve out her term, she will be 91 when she leaves office. There is a 50-50 chance Feinstein will complete her 5th full term. If Feinstein-D vacates the US Senate by resignation or death before her 90th birthday, Governor Newsom or Governor Villagrossa appoints Feinstein's replacement and he or she will have to run in the 2022 special election.
California's junior US Senator Kamala Harris-D could be President,Vice President or US Attorney General in the next Administration assuming it is not Pence. If Harris-D were to vacate her US Senate seat on January 20, 2021, Governor Newsom or Governor Villagrossa appoints Harris's replacement and he or she will run for re-election in 2022 (Harris's term expires in 2022)
What would the outcome of the US Senate be in 2018 if Democrats target every Republican seat?
AZ-(Flake-R)The only announced Democratic candidate Deedra Abboud best chance of becoming US Senator is Kelli Ward-R winning the Republican Nomination. Other potential Democratic candidates Randall Freise,Mark Kelly,and Ann Kirkpatrick-D could make a race against Flake a Tossup and defeat Ward-R.
MS-(Wicker-R)Democrats best hope in MS is Wicker-R losing in the Republican primary to Chris McDaniel, and former MSAG Mike Moore running. Current AG Jim Hood is more likely to run for Governor in 2019.
NE-(Fischer-R)Assuming he does not seek a rematch against Don Bacon in NE-2, Brad Ashford. Fischer is favored to win.
NV-(Heller-R)Possible Democratic candidates Dina Titus,Jacky Rosen,Ruben Kihuen,Ross Miller,Kate Marshall or Steve Horsford-D could unseat Heller-R.
TN-(Corker-R)Democrats best hope is Corker-R losing in the Republican primary to Larry Crim-R, and Andy Berke-D the current Mayor of Chattanooga running. Democrats chances of winning TN will also depend how the Democrats perform in the 2018 TN Governors Race. The only Democratic candidate in the 2018 TN US Senate Race is Iraq War Veteran James Mackler.
TX-(Cruz-R)Beto O'Rourke-D chances is based on how great of a voter turnout is in the Black and Hispanic community in the Dallas,Fort Worth,Houston,San Antonio,Laredo,and El Paso area and how unpopular is Trump in Texas.
UT-(Hatch-R)Democrats best hope is Hatch-R losing the Republican primary, Evan McMullin running as an Independent and Jim Matheson-D running.
WY-(Barrasso-R)The only Democrat that could make the race competitive is Former WY Governor Dave Freudenthal. Barrasso-R would still be favored.
Number of Democratic US Senators after 2018 midterm elections.
1)AZ-Randall Friese-D?? favored against Ward-R,Tossup against Flake-R
2)CA-Kamala Harris-D
3)CA-John Melendez-D defeats Feinsten-D in the November runnoff.
4)CO-Michael Bennet-D
5)CT-Richard Blumenthal-D
6)CT-Chris Murphy-D
7)DE-Tom Carper-D
8)DE-Chris Coons-D
9)FL-Bill Nelson-D
10)HI-Brian Schatz-D
11)HI-Mazie Hirono-D
12)IL-Dick Durbin-D
13)IL-Tammy Duckworth-D
14)IN-Joe Donnelly-D Which IN Republican would give Donnelly a strong challenge?Bosma?,Hollingsworth?,Messer?,Rokita?,Stutzman? or Walorski?
15)ME-Angus King-I/D
16)MD-Ben Cardin-D
17)MD-Chris Van Hollen-D
18)MA-Elizabeth Warren-D
19)MA-Ed Markey-D
20)MI-Debbie Stabenow-D
21)MI-Gary Peters-D
22)MN-Amy Klobuchar-D
23)MN-Al Franken-D
24)MO-Claire McCaskill-D Which IN Republican would give McCaskill a strong Challenge? Graves?,Hartzler?,Hawley?,Kinder?,Long?,Luetkemeyer?,Richardson?,Schmitt?,Smith? or Wagner?
25)MT-Jon Tester-D Will Tester's margin of victory over Tim Fox-R be greater or smaller than his victory over Rehberg-R in 2012?
26)NV-Catherine Cortez Masto-D
27)NV-Kate Marshall-D
28)NH-Jean Shaheen-D
29)NH-Maggie Hassan-D
30)NJ-Cory Booker-D
31)NJ-Frank Pallone-D
32)NM-Tom Udall-D
33)NM-Martin Heinrich-D
34)NY-Chuck Schumer-D
35)NY-Kirsten Gillibrand-D
36)ND-Heidi Heitkamp-D Will Heitkamp's margin of victory over Kevin Cramer-R be greater or smaller then her victory over Berg-R in 2012?
37)OH-Sherrod Brown-D Will Brown's margin of victory over Josh Mandel-R be greater or smaller than his 2012 victory over Mandel?
38)OR-Ron Wyden-D
39)OR-Jeff Merkley-D
40)PA-Bob Casey Jr-D
41)RI-Jack Reed-D
42)RI-Sheldon Whitehouse-D
43)VT-Patrick Leahy-D
44)VT-Bernie Sanders-I/D
45)VA-Mark Warner-D
46)VA-Tim Kaine-D
47)WA-Patty Murray-D
48)WA-Maria Cantwell-D
49)WV-Joe Manchin-D
50)WI-Tammy Baldwin-D
The 51st seat depends on how divisive is the Republican primary in 2017 AL US Senate Race and what type of candidate will be Doug Jones-D, or What type of candidate of candidate will Beto O'Rourke-D be in TX against Ted Cruz-R.
Number of Democratic Governors we will have after the 2018 midterm election.
1)CA-Gavin Newsom-D
2)CO-Ed Perlmutter-D
3)CT-Dan Drew.-D
4)DE-John Carney-D
5)FL-Gwen Graham-D
6)HI-David Ige-D
7)IL-Chris Kennedy-D
8)LA-John Bel Edwards-D
9)MI-Gretchen Whitmer-D
10)MN-Tim Walz-D
11)MT-Steve Bullock-D
12)NV-Ross Miller-D
13)NJ-Philip Murphy-D
14)NM-Michelle Lujan Grisham-D
15)NY-Andrew Cuomo-D
16)NC-Roy Cooper-D
17)OR-Kate Brown-D
18)PA-Tom Wolf-D
19)RI-Gina Raimondo-D
20)VA-Ralph Northam-D
21)WA-Jay Inslee-D
22)WV-Jim Justice-D
23)Democrats could win ME-if Collins-R does not run.
24)NH-Steve Marchand-D
25)OH-Betty Sutton-D
US Senate Seniority List After 2018
1)Leahy-D-VT
2)Cochran-R-MS
3)Grassley-R-IA
4)McConnell-R-KY
5)Shelby-R-AL
6)McCain-R-AZ
7)Murray-D-WA
8)Inhofe-R-OK
9)Wyden-D-OR
10)Roberts-R-KS
11)Durbin-D-IL
12)Reed-D-RI
13)Enzi-R-WY
14)Schumer-D-NY
15)Crapo-R-ID
16)Nelson-D-FL
17)Carper-D-DE
18)Stabenow-D-MI
19)Cantwell-D-WA
20)Murkowski-R-AK
21)Graham-R-SC
22)Alexander-R-TN
23)Cornyn-R-TX
24)Burr-R-NC
25)Thune-R-SD
26)Isakson-R-GA
27)Cardin-D-MD
28)Sanders-I-VT
29)Brown-D-OH
30)Casey-D-PA
31)Corker-R-TN
32)McCaskill-D-MO
33)Klobuchar-D-MN
34)Whitehouse-D-RI
35)Tester-D-MT
36)Barraso-R-WY
37)Wicker-R-MS
38)Udall-D-NM
39)Shaheen-D-NH
40)Warner-D-VA
41)Risch-R-ID
42)Merkley-D-OR
43)Bennet-D-CO
44)Gillibrand-D-NY
45)Franken-D-MN
46)Manchin-D-WV
47)Coons-D-DE
48)Blunt-R-MO
49)Moran-R-KS
50)Portman-R-OH
51)Boozman-R-AR
52)Toomey-R-PA
53)Hoeven-R-ND
54)Rubio-R-FL
55)Johnson-R-WI
56)Paul-R-KY
57)Blumenthal-D-CT
58)Lee-R-UT
59)Schatz-D-HI
60)Scott-R-SC
61)Baldwin-D-WI
62)Donnelly-D-IN
63)Murphy-D-CT
64)Hirono-D-HI
65)Heinrich-D-NM
66)King-I-ME
67)Kaine-D-VA
68)Warren-D-MA
69)Fischer-R-NE
70)Heitkamp-D-ND
71)Markey-D-MA
72)Booker-D-NJ
73)Capito-R-WV
74)Peters-D-MI
75)Cassidy-R-LA
76)Gardner-R-CO
77)Lankford-R-OK
78)Cotton-R-AR
79)Daines-R-MT
80)Rounds-R-SD
81)Perdue-R-GA
82)Thillis-R-NC
83)Ernst-R-IA
84)Sasse-R-NE
85)Sullivan-R-AK
86)Van Hollen-D-MD
87)Young-R-IN
88)Duckworth-D-IL
89)Hassan-D-NH
90)Harris-D-CA
91)Kennedy-R-LA
92)Masto-D-NV
93)Jones-D-AL wins December 12 special election.
94)Pallone-D-NJ wins the 2018 special election to replace Menendez.
95)Titus-D-NV defeats Heller-R.
96)O'Rourke-D-TX defeats Cruz-R
97)Love-R-UT defeats Hatch-R in the primary.
98)Garcetti-D-CA defeats Feinstein-D in the runoff.
99)Kelly-D-AZ defeats Flake-R
100)Poliquin-R-ME gets appointed by newly elected Governor Collins.
2017 AL US Senate Election-Doug Jones-D
National and State Democrats need to make sure Jones-D wins or comes close to winning the 2017 AL US Senate Special Election taking place on December 12 2017. Receiving over 45 percent of the popular vote against the Likely Republican nominee could give Democrats momentum in regaining control of the US Senate in 2018. Democrats will have a better chance in winning the 2018 TX US Senate Election. Texas is more Democratic than Alabama. The Republican nominee in the AL US Senate Race could pull a Gianforte-R.
Another US Senate race Democrats need to recruit a top tier candidate is MS. Former Attorney General Mike Moore. A contested race between Moore-D vs Wicker-R would be in the Lean Republican column. If Wicker-R were to get defeated in the primary against McDaniel-R. Moore-D will have a greater than 50-50 percent chance of defeating McDaniel.
2018/2020 US Senate Election
2020 is the year Democrats regain control of the US Senate.
In 2018, Democrats pick up AZ (Flake-R loses in the Republican primary to Ward-R, Ward-R loses in the general to Abboud-D or Freise-D) and NV (Heller-R loses in the general to Marshall-D or Titus-D). Democrats will come up short in TX (Cruz-R defeats O'Rourke-D by a single digit margin.) Democratic incumbents in IN (Donnelly-D),MO (McCaskill-D),and ND (Heitkamp-D) have a 50 percent chance of getting re-elected. Democratic incumbents in FL (Nelson-D),MT (Tester-D),OH (Brown-D),and WV (Manchin-D) are favored to win re-election. Democrats will end up with between 46 to 50 seats in 2019 depending on what happens in AZ,IN,MO,and ND.
In 2020, the most vulnerable Democratic US Senators are Shaheen (NH) and Warner (VA). Both are likely favored to win re-election in 2020 by a wider margin than in 2014. Democrats are likely to pick up CO (Hickenlooper-D or Polis-D defeats Gardner-D), NC (Stein-D defeats Tillis-R), MT (Bullock-D or Schweitzer-D defeat Daines-R) and ME (if Collins-R retires) and TX (if Cornyn-R retires and Castro-D or O'Rourke-D).
Which MT Democrat lost by a wider margin?
Brian Schweitzer-D in the 2000 US Senate Race against Conrad Burns-R or Robert Quist-D in the 2017 US House Race against Greg Gianfarte-R?
After losing his first race for elected office, Schweitzer-D ran for Governor of MT in 2004 and won. What elected office does Quist-D run for in the near future, a rematch against Gianfarte-R in 2018 or a run for the US Senate against Steve Daines-R in 2020 or a run for Governor of MT in 2020?
2018 US Senate Election Rating.
AZ-Flake-R vs Generic-D(Lean Republican)
AZ-Ward-R vs Generic-D (Lean Democratic)
Ward-R defeats Flake-R in the Republican primary.
CA-Feinstein-D vs Generic-R (Solid Democratic)
Feinstein-D could lose to a fellow Democrat in the November runoff.
CT-Murphy-D vs Generic-R (Solid Democratic)
DE-Carper-D vs Generic-R (Solid Democratic)
FL-Nelson-D vs Scott-R (Lean Democratic)
FL-Nelson-D vs Generic-R (Likely Democratic)
HI-Hirono-D vs Generic-R (Solid Democratic)
IN-Donnelly-D vs Top Tier-R (Tossup)
IN-Donnelly-D vs Generic-R (Lean Democratic)
ME-King-I vs Generic-D vs Generic-I (Solid Independent/D)
MD-Cardin-D vs Generic-R (Solid Democratic)
MA-Warren-D vs Generic-R (Solid Democratic)
MI-Stabenow-D vs Generic-R (Likely Democratic)
MN-Klobuchar-D vs Generic-R (Solid Democratic)
MS-Wicker-R vs Generic-D (Solid Republican)
MS-McDaniel-R vs Generic-D (Likely Republican)
MO-McCaskill-D vs Top Tier-R (Tossup)
MO-McCaskill-D vs Generic-R(Lean Democratic)
MT-Tester-D vs Gianforte-R(Lean Democratic)
NE-Fischer-R vs Generic-D (Solid Republican)
NV-Heller-R vs Top Tier-D (Lean Democratic)
NV-Heller-R vs Generic-D (Tossup)
NJ-Generic-D vs Generic-R (Solid Democratic)
Governor Murphy-D appoints Menendez-D replacement.
NM-Heinrich-D vs Generic-R (Likely Democratic)
NY-Gillibrand-D vs Generic-R (Solid Democratic)
ND-Heitkamp-D vs Top Tier-R (Tossup)
ND-Heitkamp-D vs Generic-R (Lean Democratic)
OH-Brown-D vs Mandel-R (Lean Democratic)
PA-Casey-D vs Generic-R (Likely Democratic)
RI-Whitehouse-D vs Generic-R (Solid Democratic)
TN-Corker-R vs Generic-D (Solid Republican)
TX-Cruz-R vs O'Rourke-D (Tossup)
UT-Generic-R vs Generic-D vs McMullin-I (Solid Republican)
Hatch-R loses in the Republican primary.
VT-Sanders-I vs Generic-R (Solid Independent/D)
VA-Kaine-D vs Generic-R (Likely Democratic)
WA-Cantwell-D vs Generic-R (Solid Democratic)
WV-Manchin-D vs Jenkins-R (Lean Democratic)
WI-Baldwin-D vs Generic-R (Likely Democratic)
WY-Barrasso-R vs Generic-D (Solid Democratic)
Democrats hold onto IN,MO,and ND, pick up AZ,NV,and TX.
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