February 6, 2020

It's amazing how fast it all got real once voting started.

As someone that has followed the ups and downs of the polling for months, I am a bit stunned how fast the first actual election results have impacted the race.

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I know, I know, many of us are out there spinning for our preferred candidate and against their closest opponent (I have been doing that the last 3 days myself, to be honest) but I felt I had to just take a minute and comment on how fast and how much things seem to have changed since voting occurred in Iowa.

It's been startling.

February 6, 2020

Buttigieg responds to Biden Questioning his Experience

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1225462227211296768

As they say, the proof is in the pudding.

Election results matter more than polls as far as electability goes.

February 6, 2020

"Pete elbows Biden after the former VP went on the attack today."

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1225224069232107521



Well, he's right you know.

February 6, 2020

DNC wants to change IDP results from Sattelite Caucuses

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1225497615292387333

How will this not create dissension?

Can they even do that? Change the rules the Iowa Democratic Party is using to assign delegates in the middle of THIS caucus?

February 6, 2020

Has the Protracted Iowa Fiasco Damaged Biden More?

I think it has, compared to just getting the bad news about Joe's disappointing 4th place finish over on caucus night.

And every time it comes up, not only are the two leaders mentioned, Biden's defeat gets rehashed.

February 6, 2020

"Each side is famously stupid about who is electable"

https://twitter.com/DavidOAtkins/status/1225406931541643264

Words of wisdom.

February 6, 2020

Warren's Strategy going forward.

From what I read, it's to try and stay in the top three slots going forward, emphasizing that she is in the top tier with Sanders and Buttigieg. The idea is to gain separation between herself and Biden.

Can she hang in there as the field thins out?

Time will tell.

But she can't finish worse than 3rd in NH if she wants a reasonable chance. A 2nd place finish would be better.

In any case, she needs to beat Joe in NH for this plan to have a chance of success.

February 5, 2020

Biden calls nominating Buttigieg "a risk"

https://twitter.com/CNNValentine/status/1225113249391267841

Ok, I think all candidates have to STOP labeling other Democratic candidates "a risk".

That's handing talking points and video clips to the Republicans.

Joe should know better.

February 5, 2020

Much Maligned Pollsters on DU were among the most Accurate in Iowa.

It turned out that Change Research was the most accurate predicting the Iowa caucus. Civiqs also performed well.

Several pollsters that were highly rated by 538, like A+ rated Monmouth University and A- rated Sufolk University, performed significantly worse.

This table shows the root mean square errors (rmse numbers) and the mean absolute errors (mae numbers) for the various pollsters predictions versus the actual results.

LOWER NUMBERS ARE BETTER

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1224850757989605381

The polls are what the polls are. And some polls were better than others.

February 4, 2020

Punxsutawney Phil...

just predicted 6 more weeks of Iowa Caucus.