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bluewater
bluewater's Journal
bluewater's Journal
March 4, 2020
Well, I am. I will be that Profile in Courage type of person.
Once the winner of the March 10th Michigan Primary is announced, I will be changing my preferred candidate selection to the winner and calling for any and all losing candidates to drop out of the race.
Now, I realize that I am a rare individual with immense insight and intestinal fortitude, but I call on ALL Duers to take the pledge I just made. Call for the loser(s) of the March 10th Michigan Primary to drop out.
Do it. Do it for the good of the Democratic Party.
( Yes, that's all NEUROMARKETING meant to influence your subconscious... lol the hyperbole, the taunts, the dares, the call to put it all on the line..)
Whose with me?
Show of hands, please!
I'll bookmark this thread for future reference.
Should the loser of the March 10th Michigan Primary drop out? Bluewater calls you out!
Everyone thinks the Michigan Primary will be an important bellwether for those industrial Midwest states that put Trump over the top in 2016.
But are people here willing to say that the loser of the March 10th Michigan Primary should drop out?
Oh, I'm sure, AFTER the voting many people will be calling for the loser to do just that. But how many people are willing to do that before hand?
Well, I am. I will be that Profile in Courage type of person.
Once the winner of the March 10th Michigan Primary is announced, I will be changing my preferred candidate selection to the winner and calling for any and all losing candidates to drop out of the race.
Now, I realize that I am a rare individual with immense insight and intestinal fortitude, but I call on ALL Duers to take the pledge I just made. Call for the loser(s) of the March 10th Michigan Primary to drop out.
Do it. Do it for the good of the Democratic Party.
( Yes, that's all NEUROMARKETING meant to influence your subconscious... lol the hyperbole, the taunts, the dares, the call to put it all on the line..)
Whose with me?
Show of hands, please!
I'll bookmark this thread for future reference.
March 4, 2020
Morris is one of the rising stars among data journalists, and I have posted his analyses many times in the past.
I don't always agree with his opinions, but when he sticks to the data, he is one of the best.
He's been saying that the data shows the 2020 General Election is going to be very close and that the Democratic nominee will have to win back swing voters to prevail.
That said, it will be interesting to see a Biden vs Sanders face-off in Michigan on March 10th.
G. Elliott Morris: Bernie's strength was coming from a fractured field.
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1235236919166017537Morris is one of the rising stars among data journalists, and I have posted his analyses many times in the past.
I don't always agree with his opinions, but when he sticks to the data, he is one of the best.
He's been saying that the data shows the 2020 General Election is going to be very close and that the Democratic nominee will have to win back swing voters to prevail.
That said, it will be interesting to see a Biden vs Sanders face-off in Michigan on March 10th.
March 4, 2020
https://blackdemographics.com/population/black-state-population/
That is 9 of the 15 jurisdictions holding primaries on Super Tuesday.
If Biden cannot win on Super Tuesday where 9 of the 15 jurisdictions have large percentages of African American voters, well, he simply can't win the nomination.
===================================================
It seems I called all those states with large African American voter numbers correctly. Yep, little old Bluewater actually looked at the demographics and saw pretty much how Super Tuesday was going to play out.
I pointed out that Biden has no excuse not to win the most delegates on Super Tuesday because so many of the primaries had large black electorates. Throw in Sanders and Warren splitting the vote in Massachusetts, and the result were in line with what I expected.
And, as the race collapsed to a two person matchup, what did we see? Um, A close race for delegates?
So, like everyone else, I am waiting for the final California numbers to see who actually won Super tuesday.
But what about the race going forward? I expect it to be a close hard fought struggle:
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1235073907419418624
Time will Tell.
Bluewater told us all those states with so many Black voters would matter.
Yes, I am pointing out how right I was. 
Remember YESTERDAY when I pointed this out:
=============================================
If Biden can't win Super Tuesday, He won't win the 2020 Nomination
The reason?
Super Tuesday is heavy in states with a very large percentage of African American voters, Biden's core of support:
Alabama 28% of state residents are African Americans
North Carolina 24%
Virginia 21%
Tennessee 18%
Arkansas 17%
Texas 14%
Alabama 28% of state residents are African Americans
North Carolina 24%
Virginia 21%
Tennessee 18%
Arkansas 17%
Texas 14%
Oklahoma, California and Minnesota also have significant African American populations:
Oklahoma 9%
California 8%
Minnesota 8%
Oklahoma 9%
California 8%
Minnesota 8%
https://blackdemographics.com/population/black-state-population/
That is 9 of the 15 jurisdictions holding primaries on Super Tuesday.
If Biden cannot win on Super Tuesday where 9 of the 15 jurisdictions have large percentages of African American voters, well, he simply can't win the nomination.
===================================================
It seems I called all those states with large African American voter numbers correctly. Yep, little old Bluewater actually looked at the demographics and saw pretty much how Super Tuesday was going to play out.
I pointed out that Biden has no excuse not to win the most delegates on Super Tuesday because so many of the primaries had large black electorates. Throw in Sanders and Warren splitting the vote in Massachusetts, and the result were in line with what I expected.
And, as the race collapsed to a two person matchup, what did we see? Um, A close race for delegates?
So, like everyone else, I am waiting for the final California numbers to see who actually won Super tuesday.
But what about the race going forward? I expect it to be a close hard fought struggle:
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1235073907419418624
Time will Tell.
March 3, 2020
https://blackdemographics.com/population/black-state-population/
That is 9 of the 15 jurisdictions holding primaries on Super Tuesday:
If Biden cannot win on Super Tuesday where 9 of the 15 jurisdictions have large percentages of African American voters, well, he simply can't win the nomination.
It's that straight forward.
But I expect there will be spin from the Biden Campaign when he is behind in delegates on Super Tuesday. It's won't matter though in the long run.
If Biden can't win Super Tuesday, He won't win the 2020 Nomination
The reason?
Super Tuesday is heavy in states with a very large percentage of African American voters, Biden's core of support:
Alabama 28% of state residents are African Americans
North Carolina 24%
Virginia 21%
Tennessee 18%
Arkansas 17%
Texas 14%
Alabama 28% of state residents are African Americans
North Carolina 24%
Virginia 21%
Tennessee 18%
Arkansas 17%
Texas 14%
Oklahoma, California and Minnesota also have significant African American populations:
Oklahoma 9%
California 8%
Minnesota 8%
Oklahoma 9%
California 8%
Minnesota 8%
https://blackdemographics.com/population/black-state-population/
That is 9 of the 15 jurisdictions holding primaries on Super Tuesday:
Fifteen jurisdictions are holding a primary event on Super Tuesday in 2020.
Alabama
American Samoa
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Maine
Massachusetts
Minnesota
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Alabama
American Samoa
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Maine
Massachusetts
Minnesota
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
If Biden cannot win on Super Tuesday where 9 of the 15 jurisdictions have large percentages of African American voters, well, he simply can't win the nomination.
It's that straight forward.
But I expect there will be spin from the Biden Campaign when he is behind in delegates on Super Tuesday. It's won't matter though in the long run.
March 2, 2020
"Joe Biden likes to say he was the poorest man in the Senate. Bernie Sanders rails against the establishment. But family members have benefited from the Democratic front-runners’ political careers for years."
The solution staring us in the face: Vote for Senator Elizabeth Warren.
The Sanders and Biden Families Have Been Cashing In for Years
https://twitter.com/PeterAtlantic/status/1234512028515078144"Joe Biden likes to say he was the poorest man in the Senate. Bernie Sanders rails against the establishment. But family members have benefited from the Democratic front-runners’ political careers for years."
The solution staring us in the face: Vote for Senator Elizabeth Warren.
Note: The Atlantic is a lean left news source
The Atlantic media bias rating is Lean Left.
As of August 2018, 2,178 AllSides readers agree that The Atlantic's media bias is Lean Left.
About The Atlantic
The Atlantic is an American magazine (founded as The Atlantic Monthly) in Boston, Massachusetts, in 1857. It was created as a literary and cultural commentary magazine. It quickly achieved a national reputation, which it has held for more than 150 years. It was important for recognizing and publishing new writers and poets, and encouraging major careers. It published leading writers' commentary on abolition, education, and other major issues in contemporary political affairs.
https://www.allsides.com/news-source/atlantic
The Atlantic media bias rating is Lean Left.
As of August 2018, 2,178 AllSides readers agree that The Atlantic's media bias is Lean Left.
About The Atlantic
The Atlantic is an American magazine (founded as The Atlantic Monthly) in Boston, Massachusetts, in 1857. It was created as a literary and cultural commentary magazine. It quickly achieved a national reputation, which it has held for more than 150 years. It was important for recognizing and publishing new writers and poets, and encouraging major careers. It published leading writers' commentary on abolition, education, and other major issues in contemporary political affairs.
https://www.allsides.com/news-source/atlantic
March 2, 2020
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/
538: Sanders at 28.8% leads by 11.7 points
538 Polling Average:
Sanders 28.8 <-- 11.7 point lead
Biden 17.1%
Bloomberg 14.9%
Warren 12.5%
Klobuchar 5.1%
Sanders 28.8 <-- 11.7 point lead
Biden 17.1%
Bloomberg 14.9%
Warren 12.5%
Klobuchar 5.1%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/
March 2, 2020
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-6879.html
RCP POLLS CALIFORNIA: Sanders at 34.7% with a 16.7 point lead
RCP POLLS Average for California:
Sanders 34.7% <-- 16.7pt lead
Biden 18%
Warren 15.3%
Bloomberg 13%
Sanders 34.7% <-- 16.7pt lead
Biden 18%
Warren 15.3%
Bloomberg 13%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-6879.html
March 2, 2020
https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/
The Economist: Sanders breaks 30%, takes 12pt lead
The Economist Polling Model:
Sanders 30%
Bloomberg 18%
Biden 16%
Warren 11%
Klobuchar 6%
Sanders 30%
Bloomberg 18%
Biden 16%
Warren 11%
Klobuchar 6%
https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/
March 2, 2020
https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/1234494001077727233
Despite all the arguments over health insurance in our Democratic primary debates, no one has addressed the Republicans' push to get the entire ACA thrown out.
I want to hear what the candidates plan to do when the Republican dominated Supreme Court rules that the Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare, is unconstitutional.
The Obamacare Lawsuit should be topic #1 at the March 15th debate
https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1234489250466422788https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/1234494001077727233
Despite all the arguments over health insurance in our Democratic primary debates, no one has addressed the Republicans' push to get the entire ACA thrown out.
I want to hear what the candidates plan to do when the Republican dominated Supreme Court rules that the Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare, is unconstitutional.
March 2, 2020
Pete Buttigieg was a truly transformational candidate as our first openly gay candidate for President.
His successes were groundbreaking and he deserves our respect and gratitude.
Pete Buttigieg is out. Which candidates will his supporters flow to?
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1234263168274268160Pete Buttigieg was a truly transformational candidate as our first openly gay candidate for President.
His successes were groundbreaking and he deserves our respect and gratitude.
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Member since: Fri Jun 7, 2019, 03:43 PMNumber of posts: 5,376
