judeling
judeling's JournalHow will the Suburban shift effect Gerrymandering?
Concentrating your opponents votes and maximizing your own by spreading them out. In the last rounds the Republicans have been able to use their suburban bases to create a series of 55/45 districts that would support their rural base and dampen our more urban base. That has been minimized and indeed with the covid inspired work from home shift in many professions will actually begin to extend that even deeper into the ex-burbs (even just having to commute once or twice a week will have young professionals moving farther out).
Rural America has continued to lose population at least in proportion to more urban areas. Unlike the Country States do not have fixed borders for their Senates and so will be forced to shift, in addition the most powerful members of the caucuses will to a large extent come from the safest districts and so will be the first protected. That means that Rural districts will have to grow larger in area making it more difficult to slice the remainder into semi-safe districts.
Lets look at my home state Minnesota. Now we are likely to lose a CD (we are always on the cusp). We will have our districts drawn outside of the legislative process because the Republicans were able to hold onto their one seat senate majority. What has to happen is that the demographic center is going to move south and east into more Democratic favoring territory. We are now 4/4 what will happen is that we will shift to a 3 solid Blue 3 solid Red and 1 Purple with most likely a Blue tint. Looking deeper at the State races just a quick look at the results so far sees at least a 3 seat gain in the State Senate and probably more like 5. A 6-10 seat swing puts Minnesota solid blue. The House follows the Senate borders.
This dynamic will play out everywhere. As it does even in states with Republicans in total control like Georgia or even Texas the next part of the dynamic comes into play. That is in the gerrymandered districts favoring the Republicans using the Suburbs Republicans are going to have to run as more moderate candidates. They got by with it this cycle because they could be Trumpy enough to get past the Primaries. That wont be available in the next two cycles and so the battles will be played out. So even Republican legislators are going to be more cautious to protect their own seats. So the gerrymandering will in my opinion be much more subdued this time then last time.
Can we Buy Trump's Debt
Have to get the lawyers here on it. But it would be a wonderful counter narrative to set up.
As has been pointed out the bank holding the majority of it is shopping it so we could probably get it at a bit of a discount. Which of course would be huge politically.
The Debt is a huge national security risk and so the attempt would be able to highlight it, put that in the founding documents.
If we set this up right it would be a huge burr under the saddle. If we set it up in a way that monies raised would go to 2022 senate candidate challenge funds if it fails and/or the money realized from it does so, it could also generate a Red state response which would double the effect.
Lets not forget how much of his power derives from the successful businessman image, damaging that would have a huge impact.
It is not Kornacki or King it is the software
The mail-in early vote shift has caught them all off guard. They may have thought they had it covered but they are really not geared towards type of data that is incoming and the type of questions that comes out of that.
What they should do is get some wall street data types like Hawkfish to take a look at the system.
Trump will Not claim Victory Tuesday
The narrative from the Trump campaign is much more likely to be "they counted the Democrats first".
First the big Red States are just closer then the big Blue States. With Rural counties likely to report later and the Trump absentee vote tracking later then the Biden vote, there will be more outstanding Trump votes when the first votes are announced in Red States. The longer North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida remain in play the harder it will be for Trump. Because of the way they count Trump is likely to be seen as catching up in all three as the early voting is tinged Blue. The longer those remain in play the more early vote elsewhere will be counted. This brings us to the next point.
The Red Mirage requires Trump to have a huge day of turnout and that to swamp any possible open counts. The biggest problem with that is in those late counting states the the State Government is Democratically controlled and/or the biggest pool of voters are and they will be moving heaven and earth to minimize both the difference and the narrative.You can bet for example that Harris county Texas will push the button as the polls close and dump the early vote into the narrative, as will Philly and Detroit will with as far as they have gotten.
Lastly FOX wont play along. Their long term business model depends on them remaining within shouting distance of reality. The news division is in charge of the calls and while they may talk about Trumps paths and hold out hope they wont make any premature calls. It will be at least a lot of wait and see.
Please someone ask Trump about Military votes
There is a whole section of election law about that.
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