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Tomconroy

Profile Information

Name: Tom Conroy
Gender: Male
Hometown: CT
Home country: USA
Member since: Sat Mar 6, 2021, 08:56 PM
Number of posts: 5,548

About Me

65 years old. Lifelong democrat. Saw JFK in New Haven CT on election eve 1960. I was all of 5 years old. Cast my first vote for Jimmy Carter. Stayed up all night at the English Speaking Union I London to watch the returns. We celebrated the results about 9 AM London time. I cried the morning I learned Bobby Kennedy had been shot. I don't think I ever quite recovered, although President Obama's election helped a lot. These days I'm a moderate democrat and a cultural conservative. I miss the world of good manners, fancy dress and dancing cheek to cheek. Big TCM fan.

Journal Archives

Whatever happened to Subway's Jared?

I don't know. I saw the headline and felt compelled to click on it. Maybe someone is interested:

https://nypost.com/2022/01/06/subway-jared-fogle-speaks-from-prison-i-royally-screwed-up/

A second Maxwell juror has come forward!

The NYT is reporting that a second juror now says that they had been sexually abused as a child and shared this with the jury. What a mess:

In another potential complication, a second juror described in an interview with The New York Times having been sexually abused as a child. This juror, who requested anonymity, said that they, too, had discussed the experience during deliberations and that the revelation had appeared to help shape the jury’s discussions.

The two jurors’ disclosures could be particularly problematic if they failed to note their experiences to the court during jury selection. All the potential jurors in the case were asked in a confidential questionnaire whether they or any relatives or friends had been the victim of sexual abuse or harassment.

Maxwell Verdict Is Clouded After Juror’s Disclosure of Past Sexual Abuse https://nyti.ms/3eSLXsO

Estimated prevalence of Covid in London:

https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1478739628735803398?s=20

ONS is the UK's Office of National Statistics. People wonder if there might be an increase because of holiday gatherings. Cases in the rest of the UK are still rising. It's thought they might be 10 days behind London.

'NYC seems to have peaked'.

https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/1478472053493837832?s=20

Dr. Forman holds three academic positions at Yale and also is head of radiology in the ER in the local hospital. He isn't the only one saying this.

This actually pretty much tracks South Africa and London. A peak after four weeks.

The latest on Covid in London:

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1478393679538757634?s=20

The rest of the UK is supposed to be maybe 10 days behind. Staffing absences because of positive Covid tests is a real issue.

Nate Silver thinks Omicron may have peaked in NYC

He has an interesting metric for thinking it's possible:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1478072518829391872?s=20

Google searches for 'covid symptoms' are dropping.

Elizabeth Holmes jury says they are deadlocked on three counts.

You'd assume that means they have reached verdicts on the eight other counts. The judge told them to go back and deliberate longer:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/03/jury-in-holmes-trial-says-it-cant-reach-verdict-on-three-counts.html

The Dangers of Doing Your Own Research

There is an op-ed today in the New York Times about the Dangers of unqualified people who decide to research a topic and then come to believe they have expertise in the area. Worth the read:


In theory, perhaps. But in practice the idea that people should investigate topics on their own, instinctively skeptical of expert opinion, is often misguided. As psychological studies have repeatedly shown, when it comes to technical and complex issues like climate change and vaccine efficacy, novices who do their own research often end up becoming more misled than informed — the exact opposite of what D.Y.O.R. is supposed to accomplish.

Consider what can happen when people begin to learn about a topic. They may start out appropriately humble, but they can quickly become unreasonably confident after just a small amount of exposure to the subject. Researchers have called this phenomenon the beginner’s bubble.

In a 2018 study, for example, one of us (Professor Dunning) and the psychologist Carmen Sanchez asked people to try their hand at diagnosing certain diseases. (All the diseases in question were fictitious, so no one had any experience diagnosing them.) The participants attempted to determine whether hypothetical patients were healthy or sick, using symptom information that was helpful but imperfect, and they got feedback after every case about whether they were right or wrong. Given the limited nature of the symptom information that was provided, the participants’ judgments ought to have been made with some uncertainty.

How did these would-be doctors fare? At the start, they were appropriately cautious, offering diagnoses without much confidence in their judgments. But after only a handful of correct diagnoses, their confidence shot up drastically — far beyond what their actual rates of accuracy justified. Only later, as they proceeded to make more mistakes, did their confidence level off to a degree more in line with their proficiency.

https://nyti.ms/32JRgZh

Raise Your Hand - Tom Jones and Janis Joplin

People Get Ready - Petula Clark

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