I've literally never posted here (as you all can attest) and was accused of being a plant [View all]

[Recursion]

But, here's my predictions for Tuesday

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1467539

FL: 246 delegates

FL is southern, but less black and more hispanic than the cotton states that Clinton has been dominating in; the data about Sanders's support among Hispanics is ambiguous to me. Clinton is polling 35 points up (as compared to the 20 she had been polling up in MI). FL voted Obama in 2008 and 2012.

FL is also a closed primary, which is bad for Sanders. I think this is going to be a Clinton blowout like the rest of the deep south has been, along the lines of 68-30.

NC: 121 delegates

NC is southern, 70% white, 20% AA, and in many ways similar to TN, which Clinton carried 2 to 1. Clinton is polling 20 points up. NC voted Obama in 2008 and Romney in 2012.

NC is an open primary, which is good for Sanders. Assuming the MI turnout model problem is universal (and I think it is for open primaries), I think Clinton very narrowly takes this, 50-48 or so, with the delegates as basically a wash.

OH: 159 delegates

OH is rust belt. 82% white, 12% black. In many ways similar to Michigan, which Sanders won by 2 points recently. Clinton is polling 20 points up, like she was at this point in MI. OH voted Obama in 2008 and 2012.

OH is an open primary, and I think it will see a MI-like bump for Sanders, which will put him just over the top, to 50-49.

IL: 182 delegates

IL is also rust belt. 70% white, 15% black. Also has many similarities with Michigan, but now has the central place in the Lakes economy that MI used to have. Clinton is polling ahead by 40 points. Voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012.

Clinton has some personal attachment to IL but no particular political history there like Obama had. Illinois is an open primary, and I think will see the same kind of turnout effect that MI did, but in this case it won't be enough to get him over the top there. I call close Clinton win, just over 50/50.

MO: 84 delegates

MO is either midwestern or Plains or southern depending on whom you ask. 85% white, 11% black. Voted for McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012. Hasn't been polled (that I can find) in a loooong time.

MO is an open primary, which is again good for Sanders, and demographically and economically it is a better state for him, closer to KS and NE, which he won.

If there's any state where Sanders is poised to make a Michigan-type upset on Tuesday, it's MO. Unfortunately they only have 84 delegates, but I think this could really be a stunner. I predict something like 55-45, Sanders

TLDR:

I predict Clinton wins IL, NC, and FL getting 444 total delegates; Sanders wins MO and OH getting 348 delegates.

My prediction for IL is the one I feel weakest about, and I'm willing to guarantee it's going to be a squeaker no matter what

Curious what this group thinks of this.

Signed, an O'Malley supporter who is taking all kinds of shit.