Morbius
Morbius's JournalPhilosophical question for married men:
If a man says something in a forest, and there isn't a woman around to hear him, is he still wrong?
Someone tell me a joke.
I prefer long jokes, if you have one. Puns are okay. I once rattled off ten puns in a row, hoping at least one would generate a laugh. But sadly, no pun in ten did.
Chicago Bears salary cap hell (part 2)
I've separated this into two topics because it really is two discussions: who to keep and who to trade. The Bears probably can't afford to keep DJ Moore and Cole Kmet. Kmet, while a very good tight end, has become TE2 because Colston Loveland is that good, and Kmet's salary cap hit is $11.6 million. DJ Moore's salary cap hit is $28.5 million. There's an argument for trading Moore, but if they do, who's the senior man in the wide receiver room? Probably not Zaccheus, because even without Moore or Kmet, he's the sixth best pass catcher on the team. He drops the ball more than anybody. It is possible the Bears won't find anyone willing to take Moore's contract. His numbers may be disappointing, but as a guy who has closely watched this team, I can tell you that isn't Moore's fault. Someone would likely take Kmet though, and keeping two very good tight ends is a luxury the team most likely cannot afford. Unfortunately. I love Cole Kmet. His stability and attitude are huge pluses, and he blocks as well as any man at his position in the league.
They might be able to trade Tremaine Edmunds (cap hit $17.4, 4th highest pay for any LB in the NFL), who has been a disappointment. That really doesn't free up enough money. Remember a team wants about $9 to $10 million after free agency and the draft to manage the team through the season what with emergency replacements for injuries.
These are the problems a team gets when it actually has a good season after years of disappointment. The Bears are actually better than team management thought they would be right now, and they don't want to take a step back. They have difficult decisions to make now.
Chicago Bears salary cap hell (part 1)
After a promising 2025, the Chicago Bears have a tight salary cap situation in 2026. It's not exactly salary cap hell, so consider the title click bait. The team is $9.6 million over the current cap, although it is increasing somewhat. The following players have expiring contracts:
Ryan Bates
Kevin Byard
Andrew Billings
Jaquan Brisker
Joe Tryon
Jonathon Owens
D'Marco Jackson
Braxton Jones
Dominique Robinson
Elijah Hicks
Chris Owens
Durham Smythe
Case Keenum
Travis Homer
Olamide Zaccheus
Nick McCloud
Jaylon Jones
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson
Devon Duvernay
Scott Daly
Nahshon Wright
Jordan McFadden
Theo Benedet
Now, most of these guys are far from important. Some of them didn't even see the field for one play in the past season. Others while not starting play helpful roles on special teams. Jonathon Owens, Homer, and Duvernay all played huge roles on special teams last year. Smythe played well as a third tight end. The Bears will probably try to keep these guys. Nahshon Wright will most likely get $16 million from somebody next year; the Bears can't afford him. Some players they'll be delighted to show the door, like Bates. I expect them to draft a DT and let Billings waddle - um, walk - away.
Among the most important names above are the two safeties, Byard and Brisker; and the two left tackles, Braxton Jones and Theo Benedet.
Byard is going to be 32 next season and is expected to command about $7 million. Brisker is expected to earn about $10 million. I believe there are smart general managers in the NFL who would be willing to pay Brisker more, because he has a knack for showing up at just the right times to make terrific plays... and his last game was nothing short of amazing. He does have a history of concussions, but played 17 games this season. Byard led the NFL in interceptions last year. His leadership on and of the field is unquestioned. No one expects the team to keep both safeties. Teams simply don't pay big money to two safeties.
Neither Jones nor Benedet is expected to break the bank, but it is unlikely the Bears will keep both. Benedet played well enough to get a couple starts after Ozzy Trapilo blew out his knee (and won't be back until 2027, probably), but they moved Thuney to left tackle for the Rams game.
So: Brisker or Byard, and why. Benedet or Jones, and why. What do you think?
Jarrett Stidham
Who? Well, he's the backup quarterback for the Denver Broncos, and he will start next week's AFC championship game after Bo Nix broke his ankle on the second-to-last play of the game Saturday. Denver's defense at home may well be good enough to advance anyway against the Patriots or the Texans, but they're not really a good running team. Stidham has four starts in his career and a 1-3 record with a QB rating around 78.
The NFL Playoffs - Wild Card Weekend
There is one position still up for grabs in the playoffs: the Steelers play the Ravens tonight, with the winner hosting the Houston Texans as the 4th seed. Houston has won nine straight and their defense is legit, so odds are good that whichever team wins tonight will lose next week. So, that aside, here we go:
In the NFC, Seattle has secured the top seed and will get the bye, thanks to a 13-3 win over the Niners. The Chicago Bears (#2 seed), loser of two straight, host the Green Bay Packers (#7 seed), losers of four straight. The Bears barely won the last time the teams played, with an overtime thriller. As a Bears fan, I hate to say it, but I think the Packers with more playoff experience win the third battle between the teams this season. I hope I'm wrong.
The Philadelphia Eagles (#3 seed ) host the San Francisco 49ers (#6 seed). The Niners have a very good offense but suspect defense. The Eagles have a good defense and suspect offense. Last season the Eagles won it all, and I think DC Vic Fangio will have what it takes to shut down the potent Niners offense at home.
Thanks to a complicated tie-breaker, Carolina Panthers (#4 seed) backed into the playoffs with an 8-9 record. They will host the Rams (#5 seed) and I think they will lose badly. Carolina did beat the Rams the day before Halloween 31-30, but these are the playoffs and the Rams are coached by Sean McVay, so I expect a different outcome.
In the AFC, the Broncos have the bye, and all teams will have to go to Mile High Stadium until and unless some visitor wins there. Denver's defense at home is smothering, so that's a tall order. New England (#2 seed) hosts the Chargers (#7) seed, who haven't looked very good lately. It remains to be seen how much of the Patriots success is because of their easy schedule and how much is because they're good. I think they're good enough to move to round two.
The Jacksonville Jaguars (#3 seed) have a pretty good defense of their own, and coach Liam Coen appears to be the tonic for Trevor Lawrence. They host the Buffalo Bills (#6 seed) who are good enough to beat anybody, and bad enough to lose to anybody. The Jags have won eight straight games, and I think they're just good enough to beat the Bills in what I think will be the best game of wild card weekend.
As I started this post, the Ravens lead the Steelers at almost halftime, but the Steelers have the ball. I don't know which team will pull it out but I believe in the Texans.
There. Those are my predictions, and I sincerely hope I get at least one of those wrong.
Packers lose again.
The Chicago Bears are NFC North division winners for 2025.
Malik Willis deserves to be a starter somewhere.
Derrick Henry carried the Ravens to the win with 200+ yards and four touchdowns.
But most importantly the Packers lost... again.
Playoff picture taking shape
After San Francisco's demolishing of Indianapolis on Monday night, ten of the 14 playoff spots have been secured - although playoff positions have yet to be determined. Unusually for this late date, as of now only one division has been secured, but this will change after next weekend. 14 teams have been eliminated, so eight teams are vying for these last four playoff spots.
Let's start with the AFC.
The Denver Broncos (12-3) are the favorites to get the #1 seed. They lead the AFC west by one game over the Chargers. Their final two games are against woeful Kansas City on the road and those same Chargers in the finale. The L.A. Chargers (11-4) host Houston next week and of course finish against the Broncos. Both teams have secured a playoff bid. If Denver wins out they take the #1 seed.
The New England Patriots (12-3) might get that coveted #1 seed if they win out, which they might. They host the Jets next week and then face Miami at home in the final game. If the Chargers beat the Broncos in week 18 but lose to Houston and the Patriots take care of business against weak opponents, the AFC playoffs will have to go through Foxboro; just like old times. Buffalo (11-4) are in the playoffs but cannot take the East unless New England falters and the Bills beat the Eagles and the Jets, both at home.
The Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6) once again have a winning record, and control their destiny in the AFC north, but they have not secured a playoff spot. If they lose their last two games, against Cleveland (road) and the Ravens (home), the Ravens (7-8) can still steal this division - if they can beat the Packers and the Steelers, both on the road. I don't think Cleveland will beat Pittsburgh, but crazy things have happened this season in the NFL.
The Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4) are one of the surprises of the year. Their defense is solid and Trevor Lawrence is having a good season. They lead the south by two games over Houston, who have won 7 straight themselves. Jacksonville has an easier road to the division: at the Colts, hosting the Titans. The Texans of course play at the Chargers and host the Colts. The Jaguars are in the playoffs; the Texans are the best wild card hopeful remaining in the AFC. They're in if they win one more game.
The NFC playoff picture is taking shape.
The Seattle Seahawks (12-3) lead the best division in the NFL right now and control their destiny for the #1 pick. Beat Carolina and San Francisco, both on the road, and they play at home until they lose or get to the Super Bowl. The 49ers (11-4) and Rams (11-4) are both in the playoffs, and could also get the #1 seed. The Niners just need to win out, over the Bears and the Seahawks, both at home. The Rams need to win out and have a complicated set of circumstances, but on the plus side their two remaining games look winnable at least on paper: Falcons on the road, Cardinals at home.
The Chicago Bears (11-4) have gotten very good at capitalizing on opponent mistakes, and that as much as anything else is why they're in the playoffs for the first time since 2020. They can win the north if they win one of their last two games, but they're not going to be easy: San Francisco on the road and the Detroit Lions at home. The Lions (8-7) cannot win the north but they do still have a slim chance of making the playoffs, assuming they beat the Vikings and Bears, both on the road. They also need the Packers (9-5-1) to lose their last two games, against the Ravens and home and the Vikings on the road. The Packers have the best record of any NFC team not yet in the playoffs. Win either of their last two games and they're probably in the postseason.
The Eagles (10-5) have won the east and it's the first time in a long time that any team has won the east in back to back years. Their last two games are at Buffalo and against the Commanders at home. They are unlikely to get up to the #2 seed (but it's possible) and might drop down to the #4 seed if they lose these last two games and the Panthers win their last two.
The NFC south has been one of the worst divisions in the NFL for some time now, which is one of the reasons Tampa Bay (7-8) has won the division for several years running. But Carolina (8-7) has emerged this year with an energized defense and a pretty good running game, and the Panthers can win this division and host a playoff game if they just beat the Buccaneers in Tampa in week 18. Before that game Carolina faces the Seahawks at home. The Bucs play at Miami and host the Panthers in the finale.
Whew! After week 17, one week from today, it is likely that several divisions will be secured and a couple more playoff seeds will be decided. Right now, though, expect some exciting developments because this is the season anything can happen in the NFL.
Bears - Packers
It's the oldest rivalry in the NFL. There is no team Bears fans want to beat more than the Packers, and vice versa. It's rare that this game happens when both teams are actually pretty good. It's even rarer - perhaps unprecedented - that the winner gets at least temporary possession of the #1 seed in the playoffs.
Chicago is all a-buzz right now. The Bears have a very good running game and a good offense overall, but they haven't faced a defense this good. Their offensive line - much lauded hereabouts and rightly so -will be facing huge threats: Micah Parsons this week, Myles Garrett next week, and Micah Parsons the week after. Then there's the question of which Jordan Love will show up; sometimes he's quite average, and sometimes he's superhuman.
This might be a game for the ages. Or it could be a blowout either way. This is why we watch football.
Cowboys 31, Chiefs 28
Kansas City drops to 6-6, and most likely won't make the playoffs. They'll almost certainly have to win out to make the wild card in a tough AFC. Catching Denver for the AFC West is damn near impossible at this point.
And the Cowboys are 6-5-1, not out of the NFC wild card hunt but trailing the Lions by half a game.
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