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SamuelTheThird
SamuelTheThird's Journal
SamuelTheThird's Journal
May 21, 2026
Iran has already restarted some of its drone production during the six-week ceasefire that began in early April, one sign it is rapidly rebuilding certain military capabilities degraded by US-Israeli strikes, according to two sources familiar with US intelligence assessments. Four sources told CNN that US intelligence indicates Iran’s military is reconstituting much faster than initially estimated.
The rebuilding of military capabilities, including replacing missile sites, launchers and production capacity for key weapons systems destroyed during the current conflict, means that Iran remains a significant threat to regional allies should President Donald Trump restart the bombing campaign, according to the four sources familiar with the intelligence. It also calls into question claims about the extent to which US-Israeli strikes have degraded Iran’s military in the long term.
While the time to restart production of different weapons components varies, some US intelligence estimates indicate Iran could fully reconstitute its drone attack capability in as soon as six months, one of the sources, a US official, told CNN.
Iran rebuilding military industrial base faster than expected, already producing drones
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/21/politics/iran-military-rebuildIran has already restarted some of its drone production during the six-week ceasefire that began in early April, one sign it is rapidly rebuilding certain military capabilities degraded by US-Israeli strikes, according to two sources familiar with US intelligence assessments. Four sources told CNN that US intelligence indicates Iran’s military is reconstituting much faster than initially estimated.
The rebuilding of military capabilities, including replacing missile sites, launchers and production capacity for key weapons systems destroyed during the current conflict, means that Iran remains a significant threat to regional allies should President Donald Trump restart the bombing campaign, according to the four sources familiar with the intelligence. It also calls into question claims about the extent to which US-Israeli strikes have degraded Iran’s military in the long term.
While the time to restart production of different weapons components varies, some US intelligence estimates indicate Iran could fully reconstitute its drone attack capability in as soon as six months, one of the sources, a US official, told CNN.
May 20, 2026
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the beginning of a "systemic agrifood shock" that could trigger a severe global food price crisis within six to 12 months, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization said on Wednesday.
The disruption is not a temporary shipping problem, the agency said, warning "the window for preventive action is closing quickly".
Hormuz closure could trigger 'agrifood shock', price crisis within a year, FAO warns
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hormuz-closure-could-trigger-agrifood-shock-price-crisis-within-year-fao-warns-2026-05-20/The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the beginning of a "systemic agrifood shock" that could trigger a severe global food price crisis within six to 12 months, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization said on Wednesday.
The disruption is not a temporary shipping problem, the agency said, warning "the window for preventive action is closing quickly".
May 19, 2026
Leaked AutoZone Memo Warns of Massive Motor Oil Shortages as Supply Chain Fears Spread
The document references an “impending supply shortage” tied to instability in the Middle East and claims average available supply in certain lubricant categories could reportedly fall by as much as 40 percent. It also warns employees to prepare for dramatic price increases, disappearing inventory, and widespread substitution of oil grades as shortages worsen.
https://autos.yahoo.com/policy-and-environment/articles/leaked-autozone-memo-warns-massive-150007361.html
May 19, 2026
Yields on U.S. Treasurys advanced Tuesday as investors continued to dump bonds on fears inflation is reigniting. The 30-year Treasury
yield hit the highest level in nearly 19 years.
The longer-dated 30-year Treasury bond yield rose about 6 basis points to 5.198%, its highest level since July 2007.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield — the key benchmark for mortgage and auto loans and credit card debt — climbed 6 basis points to 4.687%, the highest since January 2025. The 2-year Treasury note yield, which reacts to expectations of short-term Federal Reserve interest rate moves, rose by more than 5 basis points to 4.127%.
One basis point equals 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.
Treasuries are a bright red warning light for the economy
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/19/treasurys-yields-inflation-traders-fed-interest-rates.htmlYields on U.S. Treasurys advanced Tuesday as investors continued to dump bonds on fears inflation is reigniting. The 30-year Treasury
yield hit the highest level in nearly 19 years.
The longer-dated 30-year Treasury bond yield rose about 6 basis points to 5.198%, its highest level since July 2007.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield — the key benchmark for mortgage and auto loans and credit card debt — climbed 6 basis points to 4.687%, the highest since January 2025. The 2-year Treasury note yield, which reacts to expectations of short-term Federal Reserve interest rate moves, rose by more than 5 basis points to 4.127%.
One basis point equals 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.
May 19, 2026
But Tasnim and Fars, both Iranian state-linked media channels, laid out more detailed proposals on how Iran could charge license fees to US tech giants for the use and maintenance of undersea cables carrying regional Internet traffic, according to The Guardian. For example, the Tasnim plan described charging tech companies—specifically naming Meta, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft—license fees for cable usage while also claiming that Iran alone has the right to repair and maintain the subsea cables.
---
The vast majority of damage to undersea cables comes from commercial ships accidentally dragging their anchors or fishing trawlers dragging weighted nets along the seafloor. So it’s not out of the realm of possibility for a more innocuous-looking Iranian ship to sneakily perform some subsea cable sabotage if it’s willing to run the gauntlet of US military surveillance and patrols in the strait.
Even a damaged commercial ship abandoned in the strait could end up dragging its anchor across some cables, as was the case with a drifting ship that damaged three cables following an attack by Houthi rebels in the Red Sea in 2024.
However, the greatest threat to subsea cable infrastructure in the Strait of Hormuz may simply come from delays in any necessary cable repairs in the region. Such jobs require specialized ships to find the damaged area and lower grappling hooks to lift up the cable for inspection and repair, according to BBC News. That repair process can require days or sometimes weeks, which would leave the ship vulnerable to Iranian missiles, drones, or fast boats that have continued to attack commercial shipping in and around the strait.
Iran demands Big Tech pay fees for undersea Internet cables in Strait of Hormuz
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2026/05/iran-demands-big-tech-pay-fees-for-undersea-internet-cables-in-strait-of-hormuz/?utm_source=bluesky&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=aud-dev&utm_social-type=ownedBut Tasnim and Fars, both Iranian state-linked media channels, laid out more detailed proposals on how Iran could charge license fees to US tech giants for the use and maintenance of undersea cables carrying regional Internet traffic, according to The Guardian. For example, the Tasnim plan described charging tech companies—specifically naming Meta, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft—license fees for cable usage while also claiming that Iran alone has the right to repair and maintain the subsea cables.
---
The vast majority of damage to undersea cables comes from commercial ships accidentally dragging their anchors or fishing trawlers dragging weighted nets along the seafloor. So it’s not out of the realm of possibility for a more innocuous-looking Iranian ship to sneakily perform some subsea cable sabotage if it’s willing to run the gauntlet of US military surveillance and patrols in the strait.
Even a damaged commercial ship abandoned in the strait could end up dragging its anchor across some cables, as was the case with a drifting ship that damaged three cables following an attack by Houthi rebels in the Red Sea in 2024.
However, the greatest threat to subsea cable infrastructure in the Strait of Hormuz may simply come from delays in any necessary cable repairs in the region. Such jobs require specialized ships to find the damaged area and lower grappling hooks to lift up the cable for inspection and repair, according to BBC News. That repair process can require days or sometimes weeks, which would leave the ship vulnerable to Iranian missiles, drones, or fast boats that have continued to attack commercial shipping in and around the strait.
May 17, 2026
Axios Carrying Water For Cuba Invasion
Cuba has acquired more than 300 military drones and recently began discussing plans to use them to attack the U.S. base at Guantanamo Bay, U.S. military vessels and possibly Key West, Fla., 90 miles north of Havana, according to classified intelligence shared with Axios. https://www.axios.com/2026/05/17/us-military-drones-cuba
May 14, 2026
Indian-flagged boat sunk off Oman in latest attack on Gulf shipping
Oil is high and will climb...and the dow is at a record high. How long can this fantasy-world maintain itself as things deteriorate?
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