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bitterross

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Member since: Sat Oct 15, 2016, 07:41 PM
Number of posts: 3,710

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2020, like 2018 Will be about Turnout

This article from FiveThirtyEight is pretty good, IMHO. The take-away I got from the article is Turnout is Key! We saw this in AL in 2018, defeating Roy Moore. We must Get Out the Vote!

"There’s one last lesson that the 2019 results suggest about 2020, but it’s one that we already knew: Turnout is likely to be through the roof. In Kentucky, we estimate based on preliminary data that 43 percent of the voting-eligible population cast a ballot for governor; not only is that much, much higher than the 30 percent of the voting-eligible population that we estimate turned out in 2015, but it’s also higher than the 42 percent who voted in the Senate race in the regular 2010 midterm election. In Virginia, we already know that more people voted than in any state-legislative-only election since at least 1976 — and The Washington Post estimates that there could be thousands of votes left to count. If we see a corresponding spike in turnout between 2016 (already a pretty high-turnout election by recent standards) and 2020, polling places could be overwhelmed with voters. Americans are telling pollsters that their levels of interest in the upcoming election are at unprecedented highs — and according to one recent poll, they are already more excited about voting than they were on the eve of the 2016 and 2012 elections!"

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-virginia-mississippi-and-kentucky-can-tell-us-about-2020/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

My FB Conversation with an opponent of M4All or anything but status quo

We still have a very long way to go on convincing people that some sort of nation-wide healthcare is needed. Pelosi may be right about it not being the best plank to run on. I put on my nice face and tried to make logical arguments and not be a jerk.

One of my friends posted this meme going around on FB. My conversation with a person who disagrees is an example of what we are fighting. Basically, ignorance and selfishness.

- Meme -
I spent 36 years in the insurance business. So I know a thing or two about the subject. The one thing everyone needs to understand is that insurance is an exclusionary product - that is includes good risks that the insurance companies want, it EXcludes bad risks they do not want.

Because the exclusionary nature of insurance, health care is not, never has been, and never will be, a good candidate as insurance product. This is because everyone needs health care

Everyone - without exclusion.

So don't talk to me about socialism or capitalism or anything in between. We need to adopt a universal health care system because health care is universally needed - unlike what is provided by insurance.

It's really that simple.

--- end of meme --


++ Opponent ++
We don't need bigger government. Heck, by your logic government should run everything.

- My Response to Opponent -
I do not believe the original poster is suggesting the government run everything. There are, however, things that are too big for private companies to do effectively. Building the interstate highway system was too big for private companies. Going to the moon was too big for private companies.

We faced those challenges as a nation together. We can face the health care challenge as one.--

++ Opponent ++ Just in case you missed it
Kaiser can do it for $22 trillion less than the government can!!!!

- My Response to Opponent -
No, Kaiser cannot.

++ Opponent ++
i have the uber kaiser plan that costs a lot and very low caps on my out of pocket

Take that, multiply it by 330 million people... it costs 22 trillion less than the ewarrens plan

- My Response to Opponent -
So you LIKE to have caps on your coverage and paying out-of-pocket? I don't. Cancer treatment in our country can bankrupt you with caps on coverage and out-of-pocket costs. My boss, just had to take out a HELOC to pay for medical costs for a chronic illness his wife has. It took lots and lots of visits to specialists to diagnose and then treat. Each added a cost that wasn't covered because he hadn't met the family annual out-of-pocket.

It makes no sense to me that his family's home is now in jeopardy because his wife was ill through no fault of her own.

The US spends almost twice as much as other nations on its private-company, healthcare and gets worse outcomes. If you add up the Kaisers, the Blue Crosses, the Providences, etc. they cannot do for less. This is even worse when you consider that not everyone in the US has coverage.

https://www.pgpf.org/.../how-does-the-us-healthcare...
How Does the U.S. Healthcare System Compare to Other Countries?
pgpf.org
How Does the U.S. Healthcare System Compare to Other…
How Does the U.S. Healthcare System Compare to Other Countries?


++ Opponent ++
Of all things people want control over, they want control over my body by controlling my healthcare


- My Response to Opponent -
People ALREADY have control over your body because they control your healthcare. Can you change jobs and take your current plan with you? Your current doctors? Most people cannot. So, your boss has control over your body right now.

++ Opponent ++
you haven't seen my plan. It's insanely good


++ Opponent ++
last companies i switched between both had a Kaiser option... so yes, i did.

As for my boss having control I'd prefer someone i see every day over some bureaucrat far away. I can directly influence the guy or girl i work for by helping to improve the bottom line and argue for better benefits if needed.


- My Response to Opponent -
Some thoughts. You were lucky that you were able to change jobs and keep the same insurance company. I've never been that lucky. Reality is, if something happens and neither you nor the company for which you work is able to pay your premiums you are out of luck. You will have no coverage and when you find a new job it may or may not offer the Cadillac plan you now have. This can happen due to circumstances beyond your control. Maybe your company goes bankrupt, lays you off or gets bought by some far, far away bureaucrat who cuts the coverage. You are then out of luck.

Another thing about your arguments is they are all about this being a "me" problem only. As in you ONLY care about healthcare as it pertains to you and ONLY you. Whatever happens to "them" is of no concern. If there is one thing I'd really like us to get back from the "good old days" and "golden age," it is the ability to care about others and look beyond our own selfishness. Back when "WE Can Do It!" meant WE would do it. Not "I got mine and f-you."

Healthcare in this nation is not a "me" problem or a "them" problem. It is an "US" problem. You may not realize it but it affects the productivity of the economy as a whole. Which affects your wages and disposable income.


++ Opponent ++
i think us is better served when we harness self interests.

Anyways, it's been fun debating and you make good arguments. I gotta head out.


- My Response to Opponent -
So, in conclusion, it's okay to be a completely self-serving person and not care about anything else?

I guess you never got the point of the "First they came for..." poem.

You're also missing out on the lesson of thousands of years of evolution. If raw self-interests were the best option we'd have never developed into a species to the point where you and I could have an internet, and, this discussion. We'd still be killing one another for that one gazelle on the savanna we were both tracking.

Dems MUST make clear Quid Pro Quo was personal gain only, not for the US gain

If the Democrats don't start making it crystal clear that Trump's quid pro quo request was entirely for personal gain and to fix the election then the GOP strategy of defending it as a normal tool will win.

The GOP has seized upon just about the only thing they can to defend Trump. They're saying "Yes, he did it and it was perfectly legal and normal. We do that all the time." There is truth to that statement in the "We do that all the time" part. We ask for quid pro quo all the time from other nations when it is to benefit the US.

There is a huge risk the GOP is going to spin this as Trump's intention were for the US and not just to get dirt on Biden. Given their mass-marketing machine and FOX propaganda, they have a very decent chance of getting away with this and giving their Senators a cover for voting against conviction.

This is why I think they need to bring more than just the Ukrainian call into the impeachment. They need to bring the clear and obvious obstruction of justice and abuse of office into it. That complicates the messaging, I know.

FFS, though, there has to be a Democratic marketing/branding/messaging firm out there somewhere that can put it in terms people can understand. If we're not hiring them now, we're being damned stupid and we're going to lose again.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-impeachment-ukraine-republicans_n_5dbc8423e4b0576b62a1bf0c

I want him impeached and removed so he can't use the title

One of the reasons I want Trump impeached, and there are many, is so he cannot use the title President any longer. For him, that would be a Uuuge, bigly hit to his ego.

There is no Privilege for illegal acts!

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/whistleblower-complaint-impeachment-inquiry/h_0fe0f9fee33454acf9ae62543b7c53ff

The title, when I copied it was "Spy chief says he couldn't share complaint earlier because of executive privilege."

Someone who know better correct me if I'm wrong here. There is no "privilege" to protect illegal acts. Didn't that get established back during Nixon's impeachment?

Is there the slightest chance Kavanaugh would resign if impeached?

I'm thinking NO. Because he doesn't have to fear the Senate convicting him. In my opinion, that would be the best scenario though. Impeachment hearings that bring out the evidence that is so embarrassing and personally damaging that he resigns.

The reason I don't see that happening is I believe he's a sociopath like Trump. I don't think there is anything that would cause him to reflect and resign. I doubt even pleas from his wife and kids could do it.

I certainly think he and Trump should both be impeached though. Regardless of the chances the Senate will convict. It is important that the Democrats take a stand and do the right thing. Some day, the pendulum will swing back and having done so will be important.

Supreme Court Overturns Precedent In Property Rights Case -- A Sign Of Things To Come?

Source: NPR

A sharply divided U.S. Supreme Court ruled Friday that property owners can go directly to federal court with claims that state and local regulations effectively deprive landowners of the use of their property.

The 5-4 decision overturned decades of precedent that barred property owners from going to federal court until their claims had been denied in state court.

Federal courts are often viewed as friendlier than state courts for such property claims. The decision, with all five of the court's conservatives in the majority, may have particular effects in cities and coastal areas that have strict regulations for development.

Read more: https://n.pr/2L7VFdk



This is a really, really bad ruling.

If I were the lawyers for people like The Liberty Council or The Heritage Foundation I'd be filing briefs citing this ruling so I could take my bakers' and florists' cases right to the federal courts. This ruling will lead to that next. Just take this sentence from the ruling:

"We now conclude that the state-litigation requirement imposes an unjustifiable burden on takings plaintiffs"

and replace the "takings" with the term for the plaintiff who is a baker or florist in cases like Masterpiece Cakeshop and they can rule the burden is unjustifiable for the small business owner. There's no end to how that sentence can be used.

Now that they've packed the federal courts with white, men who are homophobic and think women belong in the kitchen this is really bad. People are going to go straight there to seek the rulings from these men.

For people who are supposed to be for States Rights, they just struck a huge blow against them.

GOP wing of SCOTUS sets stage for decimating precedent and Human Rights laws.

This is a really, really bad ruling.

If I were the lawyers for people like The Liberty Council or The Heritage Foundation I'd be filing briefs citing this ruling so I could take my bakers' and florists' cases right to the federal courts. This ruling will lead to that next. Just take this sentence from the ruling:

"We now conclude that the state-litigation requirement imposes an unjustifiable burden on takings plaintiffs"

and replace the "takings" with the term for the plaintiff who is a baker or florist in cases like Masterpiece Cakeshop and they can rule the burden is unjustifiable for the small business owner. There's no end to how that sentence can be used.

Now that they've packed the federal courts with white, men who are homophobic and think women belong in the kitchen this is really bad. People are going to go straight there to seek the rulings from these men.

For people who are supposed to be for States Rights, they just struck a huge blow against them.


Supreme Court Overturns Precedent In Property Rights Case — A Sign Of Things To Come?

A sharply divided U.S. Supreme Court ruled Friday that property owners can go directly to federal court with claims that state and local regulations effectively deprive landowners of the use of their property.

The 5-4 decision overturned decades of precedent that barred property owners from going to federal court until their claims had been denied in state court.

Federal courts are often viewed as friendlier than state courts for such property claims. The decision, with all five of the court's conservatives in the majority, may have particular effects in cities and coastal areas that have strict regulations for development.


https://www.npr.org/2019/06/22/734919303/supreme-court-overturns-precedent-in-property-rights-case-a-sign-of-things-to-co?utm_campaign=npr&utm_medium=social&utm_term=nprnews&utm_source=facebook.com&fbclid=IwAR3dfED6p-72rVH24v0AyXzJY9v3Kpyzk9DDUWPHcRUKg7N3IRJsaDjCB7Q

I Think Pelosi is channeling FDR.

So, this opinion may be because I watched the Ken Burns series on the Roosevelts this weekend.

One of the things FDR did, brilliantly, was always made it appear to the nation he was PULL-ed into a decision by overwhelming circumstances. That he had little other choice. Rather than it being him PUSH-ing the nation into a decision/situation because of his politics.

He KNEW that if he were perceived as PUSHing then it made it so much easier for the position to be attacked and minimized as political.

This didn't happen with just the Pearl Harbor attack. It happened over several key issues. Before Pearl Harbor there was the law for the draft. Although he was very much for it, he let the GOP take the heat on proposing it and then agreed it was a matter of defense that was clearly common sense.

Some may say this was cowardly behavior. That he should have stood up for everything from the start. To those who believe this - you have no idea how the world and politics work.

I think Pelosi is doing the same sort of thing. She's not jumping up and down for impeachment because as soon as she states a preference for impeachment it will be Pelosi's Crusade Against Trump. Facts will be discussed even less than they are now. It will become a matter of personalities and politics.

I think she's doing the right thing by making sure all appearances are she is being PULL-ed into a conclusion and decision for which she really has no other choice.

There will be more GOP Reps and Senators who join the call. There will come a time where the damn will break. When it does, it will be best if it is seen as her HAVING to respond to the flood rather than having caused it.

For my mother on Mother's day

Happy mother's day to all mothers who are not narcissistic alcoholics. Who have the ability to see their offspring as something more important than themselves. Who are not void of love, empathy and compassion. Who actually give a fuck.

In case you missed the thought mom, in hell, this isn't you.

ON EDIT: My mother actually passed away a few years ago. She got wasted and dropped a lit cigarette on herself in bed. Burned down half the house my dad and I built for our family. Yep, we built a house from the concrete block foundation up.

She no longer lives rent-free in my brain. All the posts everywhere today about mothers just triggered me a bit. All the damned marketing e-mails in my inbox about what mom wants are very annoying too.
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