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moose65

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Gender: Male
Hometown: NC
Member since: Thu Oct 21, 2004, 09:10 AM
Number of posts: 2,999

Journal Archives

NC Early Voting Update - November 7

Early voting in NC began on October 20 and ended on November 5.

I thought it might be interesting to compare the Early Voting numbers with 2018, the last midterm election. A day-to-day comparison wouldn't tell us much, since the days are different due to how Election Day changes, and there are usually fewer votes on weekends. So I thought a total-vote comparison and an average-votes-per-day comparison would be better:

In 2018, after Early Voting, 1,972,296 votes had been cast.

In 2022, after Early Voting, 2,008,671 votes have been cast. Therefore, this year we have had 36,375 more votes cast during the Early Voting Period.

In 2018, the average number of votes per day during Early Voting was 109,572.

In 2022, the average number of voters per day during Early Voting is 118,157, a difference of 8,585 votes per day.

Things look good for Early Voting. The totals this year may change a little, as the count gets updated.

The biggest change is in mail-in ballots that have been received. In 2018 (in the Before Times), at this point there had been 69,781 ballots received by mail. This year, the total so far is 143,701. That's a difference of 73,920. As more votes come in, that total will change as well.

Overall, there have been 110,295 more votes cast this year so far than in 2018. Also, in 2018 there were 18 days of Early Voting, whereas this year there were only 17. With one fewer day, we had that many more votes.

This year, about 90,000 more Dems than Republicans used Early Voting, and about 38,000 more Dems than Repubs have used Vote By Mail.

NC has more Unaffiliated voters than it has Dems or Republicans. Dems have outpaced Unaffiliated voters by 156,000 in Early Voting and by about 13,000 in mail-in votes.

Source: [link:https://carolinaelections.com/votetracker/|

NC Early Voting Update: November 4

Early voting in NC began on October 20. I thought it might be interesting to compare the Early Voting numbers with 2018, the last midterm election. A day-to-day comparison wouldn't tell us much, since the days are different due to how Election Day changes, and there are usually fewer votes on weekends. So I thought a total-vote comparison and an average-votes-per-day comparison would be better:

In 2018, after 15 days of Early Voting, 1,496,706 votes had been cast.

In 2022, after 15 days of Early Voting, 1,624,368 votes have been cast. Therefore, this year we have had 127,662 more votes cast after 15 days of Early Voting.

In 2018, the average number of votes per day after 15 days of EV was 99,780.

In 2022, the average number of voters per day after 15 days of EV is 108,291, a difference of 8,511 votes per day.

Things look good so far with Early Voting.

However, the biggest change is in mail-in ballots that have been received. In 2018 (in the Before Times), at this point there had been 54,343 ballots received by mail. This year, the total so far is 123,589. That's a difference of 69,246.

Overall, there have been 196,908 more votes cast this year so far than in 2018.

Source: [link:https://carolinaelections.com/votetracker/|

NC Early Voting Update: November 1

Early voting in NC began on October 20. I thought it might be interesting to compare the Early Voting numbers with 2018, the last midterm election. A day-to-day comparison wouldn't tell us much, since the days are different due to how Election Day changes, and there are usually fewer votes on weekends. So I thought a total-vote comparison and an average-votes-per-day comparison would be better:

In 2018, after 12 days of Early Voting, 1,101,686 votes had been cast.

In 2022, after 12 days of Early Voting, 1,195,922 votes have been cast. Therefore, this year we have had 94,236 more votes cast after 12 days of Early Voting.

In 2018, the average number of votes per day after 12 days of EV was 91,807.

In 2022, the average number of voters per day after 12 days of EV is 99,660, a difference of 7,853 votes per day.

Things look good so far with Early Voting.

However, the biggest change is in mail-in ballots that have been received. In 2018 (in the Before Times), at this point there had been 41,373 ballots received by mail. This year, the total so far is 100,112. That's a difference of 58,739.

Overall, there have been 152,975 more votes cast this year so far than in 2018.

Source: [link:https://carolinaelections.com/votetracker/|

NC Early Voting Update: October 27

Early voting in NC began last week, on October 20. I thought it might be interesting to compare the Early Voting numbers with 2018, the last midterm election. A day-to-day comparison wouldn't tell us much, since the days are different due to how Election Day changes, and there are usually fewer votes on weekends. So I thought a total-vote comparison and an average-votes-per-day comparison would be better:

In 2018, after 7 days of Early Voting, 692,419 votes had been cast.

In 2022, after 7 days of Early Voting, 722,543 votes have been cast. Therefore, this year we have had 30,124 more votes cast after 7 days of Early Voting.

In 2018, the average number of votes per day after 7 days of EV was 98,917.

In 2022, the average number of voters per day after 7 days of EV is 103,220, a difference of 4,303 votes per day.

Things look good so far with Early Voting. However, the biggest change is in mail-in ballots that have been received. In 2018 (in the Before Times), at this point there had been 27,520 ballots received by mail. This year, the total so far is 73,514. That's a difference of 45,994.

Source: [link:https://carolinaelections.com/votetracker/|

NC Early Voting Update

Early voting in NC began last week, on October 20. I thought it might be interesting to compare the Early Voting numbers with 2018, the last midterm election. A day-to-day comparison wouldn't tell us much, since the days are different due to how Election Day changes, and there are usually fewer votes on weekends. So I thought a total-vote comparison and an average-votes-per-day comparison would be better:

In 2018, after 6 days of Early Voting, 563,242 votes had been cast.

In 2022, after 6 days of Early Voting, 597,982 votes have been cast. Therefore, this year we have had 34,740 more votes cast after 6 days of Early Voting.

In 2018, the average number of votes per day after 6 days of EV was 93,874.

In 2022, the average number of voters per day after 6 days of EV is 99,664, a difference of 5,790 votes per day.

Things look good so far with Early Voting. However, the biggest change is in mail-in ballots that have been received. In 2018 (in the Before Times), at this point there had been 25,620 ballots received by mail. This year, the total so far is 68,330. That's a difference of 42,710.

Source: [link:https://carolinaelections.com/votetracker/|

I will update this periodically, if y'all find this of interest!

Does my logic make sense here?

Maybe y'all can help me with this.

We've all heard conservatives say things like "Gun control laws don't work. Criminals don't obey laws. You're only hurting law-abiding citizens," or some variation of that.

I think we should use their own arguments against them. For example: "Voter ID laws don't work. If some criminal is going to commit voter fraud, a law won't stop them, because criminals don't obey laws. You're only hurting law-abiding voters."

Or: "Anti-abortion laws don't work, because criminals don't obey laws. Someone seeking an abortion is going to get one no matter what."

I know these statements wouldn't change any of the hardcore rightwinger's minds, but it might make other people think. It at least points out their hypocrisy.

The Starbucks in Boone, NC becomes the first NC store to unionize!

Last week, the Starbucks in my town - Boone, NC- became the first Starbucks location in NC to vote for union representation, and it was a landslide vote: 33-2 in favor. This is a BIG deal, folks. It's like dominoes - more and more stores, hopefully, will vote to unionize. And there was no discernible pushback from Starbucks on this, either.

Boone is a college town, and it is a blue oasis in a sea of red. Makes me happy, though, that this has happened. Of course, there have been a lot of negative comments from the usual suspects on social media, but ironically most of the comments have been bashing Starbucks instead of the the workers themselves. Sometimes it's funny to read comments from people who "almost" get it!

Things that bug me about the filibuster

Yeah yeah, I know - all of us on here are well-schooled and we understand what a filibuster is, but I don't think your average non-political junkie has any idea of how dangerous the filibuster is. Why is that? A few ideas:

1. People don't understand the filibuster because it is so far removed from everyday life. In most elections - local, county, city, state - we vote for our candidate and we expect our candidate to speak for us. Also, the person who gets the most votes wins in every election except the President (that's a subject for another post entirely). In city councils, state legislatures, the US House - laws or ordinances get passed by majority vote. It's what we are used to seeing.

2. The media is dishonest about the filibuster. The headline will say something like "The Senate defeats a bill to establish a bipartisan commission on the events of January 6." That really isn't true, though. They didn't vote on establishing the commission - they voted on whether to end debate on it. Correct me if I'm wrong on this - once they vote to end debate, the vote on the actual bill is majority-rules, right? There IS no 60-vote threshold for bills themselves - only on cloture. That point is too fine for most people to understand.

3. When cloture is not invoked, people get the mistaken impression that "Congress doesn't accomplish anything." And since the Democrats are in charge, we get blamed. The blame is never put on the party who blocks everything.

Trump's win in 2016

How many times have we heard that "Trump won in 2016 due to 77,000 votes in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin." We have heard that so often that we take it as the gospel truth. However, it's not entirely true, IMO. Let's dig in:

Trump won Michigan by 10,704 votes.
Trump won Wisconsin by 22,748 votes
Trump won Pennsylvania by 44,284 votes

In those three states, he won by 77,736 votes. I've seen it stated as 77,000 or 78,000 or 80,000. However, to make a statement like that, it implies that he would have lost without all THREE states. Trump got 306 Electoral votes, but only 270 are needed to win. Therefore, even if he had lost Pennsylvania (20 votes) and Michigan (16 votes), he still would have had 270 votes. He didn't need to win those two states to get to 270 Electoral votes.

Therefore, it was ONLY Wisconsin that put him over the top. We should say that Trump won because of 23,000 votes in Wisconsin.

Please tell me if there's a flaw in the above statement!

What happened in New Hampshire?

Disclosure: Iíve been to NH on vacation in the fall numerous times, but I really donít know much about politics there, except they have one of the early primaries and they kinda pride themselves on being politically active.

It seems so crazy to me that Biden won NH by almost 60,000 votes, and Jean Shaheen won her reelection by 125,000. They also re-elected their 2 Dem house representatives. So far, so good. How then did NH vote to flip both their massive state House and their small state Senate from Dem to Republican control in a census year with state-level redistricting at stake?

Seriously, I am trying to understand that. On the surface it makes no sense.
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