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Gothmog

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Member since: Mon Apr 5, 2004, 03:58 PM
Number of posts: 91,029

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Why Hillary Clinton’s delegate lead over Bernie Sanders is bigger than it looks

The Clinton lead over Sanders in 2016 is actually far greater than the Obama lead over Clinton in 2008 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/14/why-hillary-clintons-delegate-lead-over-bernie-sanders-is-bigger-than-it-looks/

But here's the thing: Whether or not Clinton wins Ohio doesn't really matter.

It's important to remember that the Democrats, unlike the Republicans, don't allocate delegates on a winner-take-all basis. When Donald Trump won South Carolina with a plurality of the vote, he got all of the state's 50 delegates, a total that right now constitutes more than half of his lead. There are no states like that on the Democratic side. There are some variations in how the states divvy up their delegates, but they're proportionally distributed from now until the primary is over.

Which is why the 2008 daily delegate totals looked like this.

https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=&w=1484

As Clinton tried to play catch-up with Barack Obama, he would get some delegates every time she did. The only times she made big gains against him was in states she won by a wide margin. But the proportional delegate system kept Obama steadily out of reach.

It's worth comparing Obama's 2008 lead in the delegates to Clinton's. Clinton, by virtue of huge margins of victory in Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana, has a much bigger lead than Obama did at this point -- or than Obama did at any point. (The data below excludes superdelegates.)
https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=&w=1484

Even without super delegates, Clinton has a far greater lead over Sanders compared to the lead that President Obama had over Clinton in 2008

TCRP Seeks Voter Registration Reforms

The former head of Battleground Texas voter protection group left Battleground and is now at the Texas Civil Rights Project. This motor voter lawsuit has been discussed for some time http://www.texascivilrightsproject.org/

Austin, TX – In a lawsuit filed this morning in a San Antonio federal court, the Texas Civil Rights Project (TCRP) challenged voter registration procedures at the Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS). As the Complaint explains, Texas is violating the U.S. Constitution and federal law by refusing to register eligible voters who submit changes through the DPS website. TCRP and its co-counsel Waters & Kraus, LLP represent several Texas voters who have been disenfranchised by the state’s unlawful practices.

Under the National Voter Registration Act, eligible voters have a right to register to vote every time they update or renew their driver’s license with DPS. The Plaintiffs, all eligible voters, attempted to update their driver’s licenses and voter registration records through DPS’ website but the state disregarded their registration request. When the Plaintiffs tried to vote, they were not allowed to cast a regular ballot.

“I felt that my voice was taken away from me when my vote wasn’t counted,” said Totysa Watkins, an Irving health insurance representative and mother of two. “Voting has always been something I value and is a right I have instilled in my children. Texas should not be able to take that away.”

Between September 2013 and May 2015, the state recorded complaints from nearly 2,000 voters who completed an online transaction with DPS and mistakenly believed that their registration records were updated too. These voters represent a mere fraction of the total number of Texas voters injured as a result of the state’s policies. Indeed, TCRP received numerous reports of additional voters who were disenfranchised in Texas’ primary election due to voter registration problems at DPS. Until Texas reforms its registration practices, countless voters will be excluded from the democratic process every election.

“The NVRA is very clear: The state must update registration records every time a voter updates his or her driver’s license files,” stated Peter Kraus, founding partner of Waters & Kraus, LLP. “We are asking Texas to take simple, commonsense steps to modernize its voter registration procedures and comply with longstanding federal law.”

“TCRP is a champion for equality and justice. We will fight to ensure that historically disenfranchised Texans are no longer shut out of the democratic process.” Mimi Marziani, Executive Director of TCRP, added: “Our clients updated their information with DPS and should have been placed on the rolls. Texas cannot ignore voting rights because it deems them inconvenient.”

Clinton Voters Like Obama More Than Sanders Supporters Do

Nate Silver's site has some good polling on this important difference between Sanders and Clinton supporter. I admit that I think that President Obama has been an outstanding POTUS and that is one reason why I am supporting Hillary Clinton http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/voters-who-like-obama-like-clinton/

The bottom half of the table shows attitudes that were measured in the wake of the 2012 election, between November 2012 and January 2013. We see, for instance, that Clinton and Sanders supporters differ little on questions about overall government spending or targeted assistance for African-Americans. Like the Iraq War, the Affordable Care Act may divide the candidates (paywalled), but it does not seem to split their supporters. Nor do immigration attitudes or measures of prejudice against blacks or Latinos.1

But notice the Obama feeling thermometer. Even back in the aftermath of Obama’s 2012 victory, those who would become Clinton supporters in 2016 rated Obama at 0.82 on the 0-1 scale, as opposed to just 0.72 for those who would become Sanders supporters. That difference remains sizable even when looking only at non-black respondents. In recent debates with Sanders, Clinton’s embrace of Obama has been striking. But more than a tactical play for black voters, that embrace may reflect deeper differences in the two candidates’ bases of support.

And it’s not just about Obama. As the table’s final line shows, Sanders voters were markedly more likely to agree that “at present, I feel very critical of our political system,” scoring 0.66 on a scale from 0 (“strongly disagree”) to 1 (“strongly agree”). Sanders backers are notably more disaffected, a fact which might explain their reluctance to back a longtime insider like Clinton.

It is always tempting to see the current campaign in light of past ones, especially when one of the same candidates is on the ballot. But the divisions between Clinton and Sanders are not simply a reflection of those between Clinton and Obama eight years ago, with Sanders stepping into the role of Obama. Voters’ orientation toward the political establishment — in this case, Clinton and Obama — is an issue that wasn’t present in 2008. And while Edwards has left the political stage, the appeal of his economic populism lives on.

Sanders supporters and Clinton supporters have very different viewpoints on President Obama.

Clinton Wins Latino Vote Big Over Sanders In Texas

This makes me smile http://www.buzzfeed.com/adriancarrasquillo/texas-colorado-latino-clinton-sanders?utm_term=.uo6wyo05Y#.ysepwL9y1

Hillary Clinton rolled on Super Tuesday, racking up wins across the South powered by black and older voters. And in Texas, where Hispanics made up 31% of the electorate according to exit polls, she won over 70% of their vote.

Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders won the Democratic caucus in Colorado, where Latinos make up 15% of eligible voters, but entrance polls were not available.

HUD Secretary Julian Castro, often mentioned as a possible vice presidential pick by Clinton, cautioned that exit polls are not definitive, but lauded her strength in states across the country as different as Nevada, Iowa, South Carolina, and now Texas.

“It’s not surprising,” Castro told BuzzFeed News. “Hillary Clinton has had strong support in the Latino community in Texas and throughout the country for a very long time, and tonight’s results in Texas and her strong support from Latinos are one more affirmation that she appeals to diverse communities. It says a lot about her ability to win in November.”

The GOP debate tonight-the University of Houston is a zoo

I was on campus yesterday and it was a zoo. I am glad that I do not need to get near the University of Houston tonight.

Numbers for Vote by Mail

The Texas Democratic Party started its vote by mail program in 2014 in part to combat the Texas voter id law and in part to erase the large advantage that the Texas GOP has on voice by mail. In my county, the GOP usually had a 10 to 1 advantage in vote by mail. In 2010, it cost my county $13,000 to mail 16,000 vote by mail applications out and we got ten times the number of vote by mail ballots back due to this. The TDP mailed about 115,000 vote by mail applications in 2014

The TDP got the cost of the program down and this cycle my county spent $6,000 and the TDP and others raised money to pay for calls in counties where there is no local Democratic Party or the county party is too poor to pay for these mailings. Approximately 375,000 applications were mailed for the primary process.

Right now in my county, we have more democratic primary vote by mail ballots in than the republicans.

Texas will turn blue but it is going to take some hard work.

Chris Bell: Wake up, Texas Democrats. You’re about to blow it.

Disclaimer. I know Chris Bell and have worked on a couple of his campaigns including a run for SD 17 State Senate run against a truly repugnant republican a couple of years ago. Chris is currently in deep do do with Texas Democrats for backing the GOP candidate in the Houston Mayor's runoff. I and others worked hard to get Sylvester Turner elected mayor of Houston instead the tea party hacked backed by Chris Bell
.
Chris makes some good comments about the reason why Texas democrats need to vote for Hillary Clinton http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/latest-columns/20160219-chris-bell-wake-up-texas-democrats.-youre-about-to-blow-it..ece#commentsOuterWrapper It seems that someone forgot to read the last three paragraphs of the article

For years, the Republicans were smart enough to come together to nominate someone who could potentially appeal to a majority. It appears very likely they won’t do that this year. So we should turn the tables and, at the very least, if you don’t support Hillary Clinton, stop denigrating and damaging her. This fiction that she’s not progressive is just that — fiction. She has been on the forefront of the progressive movement since she was in college and she’ll take those same values to the White House.

She will also allow us to win here in Texas. When more and more Republicans start looking for a new home, I assure you they will be far more willing to join a party led by Hillary Clinton than a party led by Bernie Sanders.

I completely understand youthful idealism; I had plenty of it. And I certainly understand the anger that has turned many Sanders’ way. But idealism and anger are not going to change our state; that is only going to happen when Democrats once again become competitive statewide. Along with a lot of others, I am so tired of toiling in the trenches for the Democratic Party and then watching as we form a circular firing squad.

We need to seize this opportunity we’ve been handed. We need to be relevant once again.

Like many Texas Democrats, including Chris Bell, I am supporting Hillary Clinton because she can help turn Texas blue. If Carnival Cruz or Trump is the nominee, then we will be picking up a number of GOP voters who are too sane to vote for Carnival Cruz or Trump.

Chris Bell: Wake up, Texas Democrats. You’re about to blow it.

Disclaimer. I know Chris Bell and have worked on a couple of his campaigns including a run for SD 17 State Senate run against a truly repugnant republican a couple of years ago. Chris is currently in deep do do with Texas Democrats for backing the GOP candidate in the Houston Mayor's runoff. I and others worked hard to get Sylvester Turner elected mayor of Houston instead the tea party hacked backed by Chris Bell.

I was amused to see this article cited on the Sanders site. http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/latest-columns/20160219-chris-bell-wake-up-texas-democrats.-youre-about-to-blow-it..ece#commentsOuterWrapper It seems that someone forgot to read the last three paragraphs of the article

For years, the Republicans were smart enough to come together to nominate someone who could potentially appeal to a majority. It appears very likely they won’t do that this year. So we should turn the tables and, at the very least, if you don’t support Hillary Clinton, stop denigrating and damaging her. This fiction that she’s not progressive is just that — fiction. She has been on the forefront of the progressive movement since she was in college and she’ll take those same values to the White House.

She will also allow us to win here in Texas. When more and more Republicans start looking for a new home, I assure you they will be far more willing to join a party led by Hillary Clinton than a party led by Bernie Sanders.

I completely understand youthful idealism; I had plenty of it. And I certainly understand the anger that has turned many Sanders’ way. But idealism and anger are not going to change our state; that is only going to happen when Democrats once again become competitive statewide. Along with a lot of others, I am so tired of toiling in the trenches for the Democratic Party and then watching as we form a circular firing squad.

We need to seize this opportunity we’ve been handed. We need to be relevant once again.

Like many Texas Democrats, including Chris Bell, I am supporting Hillary Clinton because she can help turn Texas blue. If Carnival Cruz or Trump is the nominee, then we will be picking up a number of GOP voters who are too sane to vote for Carnival Cruz or Trump.

I am so glad that I read all of the article.

Why are Nevada College Republicans voting for Sanders in the Nevada Caucuses??

The Nevada college republicans are going to cheat and vote in the Democratic caucuses for Sanders because he is the weakest possible Democratic nominee http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/nevada-republicans-eye-electoral-mischief-dem-caucuses

Ralston noted yesterday that “organized” Republican efforts to intervene in the Democratic contest are now underway. This includes College Republicans urging members to support the “socialist” in order to help the GOP candidate “prevail” in November, and coincided with work from a prominent conservative activist in Nevada encouraging Republicans to intervene with a similar message.

Here is the flyer that the Nevada college republicans are using to encourage Nevada college republicans to vote for the socialist



Again and again, it is clear that the GOP and their affiliates want Sanders to be the nominee because he is the weakest possible nominee

Hillary Clinton has one of the best platforms to protect voting rights that I have seen

The Clinton platform is one of the best set of proposals to protect the right to vote that I have seen and this is one of my passions. https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/voting-rights/



Hillary has laid out her vision for how to expand access to the ballot box for all Americans and how to defend against the systematic, deliberate efforts to stop millions of citizens from participating in our democracy:

Repairing the Voting Rights Act. Congress should move quickly to pass legislation that would fix the damage done to the Voting Rights Act by the Supreme Court and restore the full protections American voters need and deserve. These protections are crucial for young and minority voters, seniors, and other underrepresented groups disproportionately affected by harmful Republican efforts to restrict voting.

Setting a new national standard for early voting
. It’s time to set a standard across our country of at least 20 days of early in-person voting, including opportunities for evening and weekend voting. This will reduce long lines and give more people an opportunity to vote, especially those who have work or family obligations during the day. Early in-person voting isn’t just convenient—it’s also more secure, more reliable, and more affordable than absentee voting.

Implementing universal, automatic voter registration. Every citizen in every state should be automatically registered to vote when they turn 18, unless they choose to opt out. At the same time, we need to make sure that registration rolls are secure, up to date, and accurate. When you move, your registration should move with you. Modernizing registration will add tens of millions of voters to the rolls, cost less, and reduce the potential for errors or irregularities.
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