moose65
moose65's JournalTrump's win in 2016
How many times have we heard that "Trump won in 2016 due to 77,000 votes in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin." We have heard that so often that we take it as the gospel truth. However, it's not entirely true, IMO. Let's dig in:
Trump won Michigan by 10,704 votes.
Trump won Wisconsin by 22,748 votes
Trump won Pennsylvania by 44,284 votes
In those three states, he won by 77,736 votes. I've seen it stated as 77,000 or 78,000 or 80,000. However, to make a statement like that, it implies that he would have lost without all THREE states. Trump got 306 Electoral votes, but only 270 are needed to win. Therefore, even if he had lost Pennsylvania (20 votes) and Michigan (16 votes), he still would have had 270 votes. He didn't need to win those two states to get to 270 Electoral votes.
Therefore, it was ONLY Wisconsin that put him over the top. We should say that Trump won because of 23,000 votes in Wisconsin.
Please tell me if there's a flaw in the above statement!
What happened in New Hampshire?
Disclosure: I’ve been to NH on vacation in the fall numerous times, but I really don’t know much about politics there, except they have one of the early primaries and they kinda pride themselves on being politically active.
It seems so crazy to me that Biden won NH by almost 60,000 votes, and Jean Shaheen won her reelection by 125,000. They also re-elected their 2 Dem house representatives. So far, so good. How then did NH vote to flip both their massive state House and their small state Senate from Dem to Republican control in a census year with state-level redistricting at stake?
Seriously, I am trying to understand that. On the surface it makes no sense.
It's a beautiful day in NC!!
I've been doing Early Voting updates for NC for the past couple of weeks. Today is election day, and it is bright and sunny and getting warmer by the minute! No rain in sight today, and yesterday's high winds have toned down.
Looks like a perfect day to kick Trump to the curb! I live in the mountains, so it was 34 degrees this morning. Supposed to warm up to to mid-50's by afternoon. The rest of NC will be much warmer than here. There's no hurricane offshore and not a drop of precipitation on the horizon.
Somebody up there has given us a perfect day to get out the vote and to vote ourselves.
It is time to DUMP TRUMP!!
How's the weather where you are??
NC Early Voting Addendum!!
Early Voting has ended in NC. However, the numbers continue to inch up as more counties report and update the totals, and of course the number of mail-in ballots will increase as well. Here are the current numbers:
Mail-in ballots received: 937,894
Early voting (17 days): 3,613,067
Total: 4,550,961
Party breakdown of those who have voted Early or had their mail-in ballot accepted:
Democratic: 1,701,365
Republican: 1,443,822
Unaffiliated: 1,381,172
Libertarian: 20,581
Constitution: 2,128
Green: 1,894
61.8% of registered voters have already voted.
We have now reached 95.4% of the total 2016 votes cast.
We have also surpassed the number of early and mail-in votes from 2016 by over 1,400,000. Even though the Early Voting period has ended, these totals can be updated as more counties report and refine their results. More mail-in ballots are constantly coming in, as well.
65% of the registered Democrats in NC have already voted.
The biggest difference between 2020 and 2016 is the number of mail-in ballots. In 2016, there were 191,601 votes cast by mail, of which 60,043 were from Democrats and 76,154 were from Republicans. This year, there have been 937,894 mail-in ballots! Of those, Democrats account for 425,446 voters and Republicans, 191,190.
ONE MORE DAY!!!
Sources: https://carolinaelections.com/votetracker/gen2020 and https://www.ncsbe.gov/
NC Voting Update: November 1
Early Voting has ended in NC. After the sites closed on Saturday, October 31, here are the updated totals:
Mail-in ballots received: 928,442
Early voting (17 days): 3,603,176
Total: 4,531,618
Party breakdown of those who have voted:
Democratic: 1,694,851
Republican: 1,438,129
Unaffiliated: 1,374,232
Libertarian: 20,415
Constitution: 2,116
Green: 1,875
61.7% of registered voters have already voted.
We have now reached 95% of the total 2016 votes cast.
We have also surpassed the number of early and mail-in votes from 2016 by almost 1,385,000. Even though the Early Voting period has ended, these totals can be updated as more counties report and refine their results. More mail-in ballots are constantly coming in, as well.
64.8% of the registered Democrats in NC have already voted.
Sources: https://carolinaelections.com/votetracker/gen2020 and https://www.ncsbe.gov/
NC Voting Update: October 31
October 15 was the first day of Early Voting in NC. After the sites closed on Friday, October 30, here are the updated totals:
Mail-in ballots received: 907,742
Early voting (16 days): 3,437,684
Total: 4,345,426
Party breakdown of those who have voted:
Democratic: 1,633,733
Republican: 1,378,537
Unaffiliated: 1,310,505
Libertarian: 18,905
Constitution: 1,946
Green: 1,760
59.2% of registered voters have already voted.
We have now reached 91.1% of the 2016 votes cast.
We have also surpassed the number of early and mail-in votes from 2016 by almost 1,200,000, with 1 day of Early Voting to go.
62.4% of the registered Democrats in NC have already voted.
Sources: https://carolinaelections.com/votetracker/gen2020 and https://www.ncsbe.gov/
NC Voting Update: October 30
October 15 was the first day of Early Voting in NC. After the sites closed on Thursday, October 29, here are the updated totals:
Mail-in ballots received: 883,963
Early voting (15 days): 3,200,004
Total: 4,083,967
Party breakdown of those who have voted:
Democratic: 1,556,482
Republican: 1,286,508
Unaffiliated: 1,220,771
Libertarian: 16,871
Constitution: 1,738
Green: 1,597
55.6% of registered voters have already voted.
We have now reached 85.6% of the 2016 votes cast.
We have also surpassed the number of early and mail-in votes from 2016 by almost 940,000, with 2 days of Early Voting to go.
59.7% of the registered Democrats in NC have already voted.
Sources: https://carolinaelections.com/votetracker/gen2020 and https://www.ncsbe.gov/
NC Voting Update: October 29
October 15 was the first day of Early Voting in NC. After the sites closed on Wednesday, October 28, here are the updated totals:
Mail-in ballots received: 852,012
Early voting (14 days): 3,015,833
Total: 3,867,845
Party breakdown of those who have voted:
Democratic: 1,493,831
Republican: 1,208,633
Unaffiliated: 1,146,929
Libertarian: 15,390
Constitution: 1,584
Green: 1,478
52.7% of registered voters have already voted.
We have now reached 81.1% of the 2016 votes cast.
We have also surpassed the number of early and mail-in votes from 2016 by almost 725,000, with 3 days of Early Voting to go.
57.3% of the registered Democrats in NC have already voted.
Sources: https://carolinaelections.com/votetracker/gen2020 and https://www.ncsbe.gov/
NC Voting Update: October 28
October 15 was the first day of Early Voting in NC. After the sites closed on Tuesday, October 27, here are the updated totals:
Mail-in ballots received: 819,363
Early voting (13 days): 2,812,202
Total: 3,631,565
Party breakdown of those who have voted:
Democratic: 1,423,590
Republican: 1,122,985
Unaffiliated: 1,068,317
Libertarian/Green/Constitution: 16,673
49.5% of registered voters have already voted.
We have now reached 76.1% of the 2016 votes cast.
We have also surpassed the number of early and mail-in votes from 2016 by almost 485,000, with 4 days of Early Voting to go.
54.6% of the registered Democrats in NC have already voted.
Source: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NC.html
NC Voting Update: October 27
October 15 was the first day of Early Voting in NC. After the sites closed on Monday, October 26, here are the updated totals:
Mail-in ballots received: 804,811
Early voting (12 days): 2,607,038
Total: 3,411,849
Party breakdown of those who have voted:
Democratic: 1,356,449
Republican: 1,041,160
Unaffiliated: 999,173
Libertarian: 12,534
Constitution: 1,291
Green: 1,242
46.6% of registered voters have already voted.
We have now reached 71.5% of the 2016 votes cast.
We have also surpassed the number of early and mail-in votes from 2016 by almost 265,000, with 5 days to go.
52% of the registered Democrats in NC have already voted.
Source: https://carolinaelections.com/votetracker/
Profile Information
Gender: MaleHometown: NC
Member since: Thu Oct 21, 2004, 09:10 AM
Number of posts: 3,166
