TX-22: Olson moves from Likely Republican to Lean Republican

The rapidly growing southwest Houston suburbs are undergoing a rapid demographic shift: the 22nd CD, once held by Tom DeLay, is now just 40 percent white (down from 45 percent in 2010) and voted for President Trump by just 52 percent to 44 percent, a third of Mitt Romney's 25 point margin in 2012. It's 26 percent Hispanic, 19 percent Asian and 12 percent black, and and 43 percent of adults hold college degrees, among the highest in the state.

Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni embodies this transformation. The Indian-American former foreign service officer and aide to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand grew up in Fort Bend County, attended UT-Austin and Harvard's Kennedy School and speaks six languages. His $1 million raised won't buy him Houston broadcast TV, but his campaign is conducting outreach in 13 languages and won the endorsement of the Houston Chronicle, which has backed Olson in the past.

Moreover, Olson hasn't had a competitive race since 2008, was outraised $578,000 to $319,000 in the third quarter and had just $312,000 on hand at the end of September. GOP colleagues praise his outreach to ethnic groups, but he was caught on tape complaining about running against an "Indo-American carpetbagger." And, private polls show Olson still isn't well-known or defined. That's potentially dangerous in a wave, especially if Democrat Beto O'Rourke carries the district.

The expense of the Houston market means this race will largely play out on cable television and. Kulkarni's biggest obstacle is the gerrymandered nature of the district: Hillary Clinton carried Fort Bend County, but in 2011 Republican mapmakers drew its most Democratic precincts into the 9th CD. Kulkarni believes the campaign's efforts to register immigrant communities to vote are a game-changer. There's still reason to be skeptical, but this sleeper race is intensifying.



https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/ten-rating-changes-democrats-enthusiasm-edge-narrows-and-fundraising



SRI PRESTON KULKERNI







https://www.kulkarniforcongress.com

FL-06: Open seat moves from Likely Republican to Lean Republican

In a surprise, Republicans' concern in Florida now extends beyond Ron DeSantis's standing in the governor's race to his open House seat. Democrat Nancy Soderberg, a protege of Madeleine Albright who served as a UN representative in the Clinton administration, has leveraged those connections to raise $2.4 million and had a three-week head start on the airwaves over GOP Army veteran Mike Waltz.

It should have been easy for Republicans to disqualify Soderberg as a liberal, elitist Clintonista in a Daytona Beach district President Trump carried 57 percent to 40 percent in 2016. But Soderberg, who runs a leadership program at the University of North Florida, didn't face a primary and stockpiled her money and has skewered Waltz for supporting the GOP healthcare bill. Now, Democrats' internal polling shows the race tied.

Waltz grew up in Jacksonville and served as a Green Beret in Afghanistan and an adviser to Vice President Dick Cheney. His new ads frame the race as a "Green Beret" versus a "liberal bureaucrat" who worked for the Clintons, and he's getting back up from American Patriots PAC ads linking Soderberg to Nancy Pelosi. The race should move back in Waltz's favor once those attacks sink in, but Republicans have some catching up to do.



https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/ten-rating-changes-democrats-enthusiasm-edge-narrows-and-fundraising



NANCY SODERBERG







https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/ten-rating-changes-democrats-enthusiasm-edge-narrows-and-fundraising

FL-15: Open Republican seat moves from Lean Republican to Tossup

This open seat has flown under the radar most of the year, partly because Rep. Dennis Ross announced his retirement within hours of Speaker Paul Ryan's. But suddenly Republicans are sounding the alarm. A new New York Times/Siena College poll found Democratic attorney Kristen Carlson and GOP state Rep. Ross Spano tied at 43 percent, and a SurveyUSA poll last week found them tied at 45 percent.

The 15th CD combines moderate Tampa suburbs with highly agricultural, citrus-growing portions of Polk County and it voted for President Trump 53 percent to 43 percent. But Carlson may hold unique appeal with rural voters. In the 1980s, as general counsel to the Florida Department of Citrus, she successfully lobbied the FDA to prosecute out-of-state "orange juice adulterators" who were passing off inferior juice as 100 percent OJ.

Carlson outraised Spano $600,000 to $219,000 between August and the end of September, and is running as experienced prosecutor prepared to work with both parties. GOP strategists complain Spano, regarded as a very conservative legislator, hasn't raised enough money to define himself in time, and may need a bailout from the Club for Growth, which supported him in the primary. It's a Toss Up.



https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/ten-rating-changes-democrats-enthusiasm-edge-narrows-and-fundraising



KRISTEN CARLSON







https://kristencarlsonforcongress.com

AK-AL: Young moves from Likely Republican to Lean Republican

Young, the occasionally curmudgeonly dean of the House, has survived countless close elections over the course of his 45 years in Congress. But he's never had to face an independent running with the endorsement of the Democratic Party before, and a poll taken last week by the nonpartisan Alaska Survey Research showed Young leading education funding advocate Alyse Galvin by just 49 percent to 47 percent.

Galvin outraised Young $643,000 to $236,000 in the third quarter. Galvin grew up in Alaska, graduated from UC-San Diego, moved back to Anchorage and worked in the hospitality industry. Her husband, a Democrat, served as the state's commissioner of revenue under Gov. Sarah Palin. In 2017, she led a grassroots effort called Great Alaska Schools to protest public education cuts proposed by the legislature to address budget deficits.

Galvin stresses her Independent affiliation and is listed as an "Undeclared" who is the "Alaska Democratic Party nominee" on the ballot. She's hoping to attract independent and third-party voters, who were a big reason President Trump only won Alaska 51 percent to 37 percent in 2016. However, her ads against Young's healthcare and tax votes mirror Democratic ads across the country, and Young is arguing she's a liberal Democrat in disguise.

At 85, Young is the oldest House incumbent seeking reelection in 2018, and Galvin argues he's served past his usefulness and is in the pocket of lobbyists. But he isn't shying away from a fight, and his ads warn that Galvin would vote for Nancy Pelosi and enable a crackdown on Alaska's energy industry. Young is still the favorite, but Gov. Bill Walker's last-minute exit and endorsement of Democrat Mark Begich adds an additional layer of uncertainty.



https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/ten-rating-changes-democrats-enthusiasm-edge-narrows-and-fundraising



ALYSE GALVIN







https://www.alyse4alaska.com

FL-15: Kristen Carlson outraising Ross Spano in U.S. House race, polls tight

Democrat Kristen Carlson expanded her fundraising lead over Republican Ross Spano in the Congressional District 15 race during August and September, as one top analyst forecast the race razor close.

Carlson pulled in $579,017 for a total so far of $905,567, including $92,114 from herself, and showed $502,151 in cash.

Spano raised $191,530 for a total $439,952, including $104,500 from himself, and showed $165,613 in cash — but also debts of $165,366 to campaign vendors.

The Spano campaign responded with an analysis saying little of Carlson's money has come from within the district, and that much of it comes from New York and California through national, progressive fundraising organizations including Act Blue.

A recent poll done by a GOP-oriented firm and commissioned by the conservative Club for Growth, which is supporting Spano, showed Spano ahead by 7 points.

But after weighting that and other polls, polling analyst Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com rates Spano ahead by less than 2 points and gives Carlson a 40 percent chance of winning in the GOP-leaning district.


https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/10/21/kristen-carlson-outraising-ross-spano-in-u-s-house-race-polls-tight/






https://www.kristencarlsonforcongress.com

GA-06: National Republicans Boosting Karen Handel

The campaign arm of House Republicans is investing more than a million dollars in Georgia’s 6th District, which was home to the most expensive House election in history last year.

The National Republican Campaign Committee has made a $1.4 million TV buy on Atlanta broadcast, set to begin this week. It’s the first outside spending from one of the party committees in a race that has thus far looked safer for Republicans than it did in 2017 during its high-profile special election.

GOP Rep. Karen Handel, who won last year’s election, is facing a challenge from gun control activist Lucy McBath, who has outraised her and is benefitting from millions of dollars in outside support on the airwaves from Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund. The group has spent more than $2.3 million in the general election.

McBath had been the national spokeswoman for advocacy group Everytown for Gun Safety but is currently on an unpaid leave of absence. Her son was shot and killed at a gas station in Florida in 2012 by a man who complained his music was too loud.



https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/national-republicans-boosting-karen-handel-georgias-6th-district



LUCY MCBATH






https://lucyforcongress.com

These 8 Attorney-General Races Could Make A Big Difference To Trump's Agenda

Here are the seven states3 where we think Democrats could realistically make gains:

Polling in Arizona had shown Republican incumbent Mark Brnovich pulling away from Democrat January Contreras, but the race got a shot in the arm when progressive billionaire Tom Steyer recently poured more than $3 million into attacks on Brnovich.
For the open seat in Colorado, Democrat Phil Weiser (the former dean of the University of Colorado Law School) has outraised Republican District Attorney George Brauchler (who prosecuted the Aurora theater shooter) by almost $2 million. But as of Oct. 15, the Republican AG association had bolstered Brauchler with around $3 million in outside spending, one of its biggest investments in any state.

In Florida, Democratic state Rep. Sean Shaw has promised to use the attorney general’s office to take on the Trump administration, while former judge and GOP candidate Ashley Moody is running a law-and-order campaign backed by at least 57 of Florida’s 66 sheriffs. Polling is tight, so, as with the Senate and governor races in Florida, we’re unsure which way it will go.
With his connections as speaker of the state House, Tom Leonard is probably Michigan Republicans’ strongest statewide candidate. But it just might not be their year: Polls give Democrat Dana Nessel, an LGBT-rights lawyer whose campaign video went viral as the #MeToo movement was gaining steam, a slight lead.
With his connections as speaker of the state House, Tom Leonard is probably Michigan Republicans’ strongest statewide candidate. But it just might not be their year: Polls give Democrat Dana Nessel, an LGBT-rights lawyer whose campaign video went viral as the #MeToo movement was gaining steam, a slight lead.

Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt is running for governor, and he’s anointed his Republican deputy, Wes Duncan, to succeed him. As state Senate majority leader, Democratic candidate Aaron Ford is the highest-ranking Democrat in Nevada, but his campaign has been hurt by revelations that he was arrested four times in the 1990s. Polls show lots of undecided voters, so this is another race that could follow the top of the ticket.

Ohio pits two all-star candidates against each other: Democrats have Steve Dettelbach, a former U.S. attorney with a sterling prosecutorial record, while Republicans have Dave Yost, who has already won two statewide elections for state auditor. Both candidates tout their record fighting corruption, but Dettelbach may have more credibility on the issue, given how the Ohio GOP has had to contend with two prominent local scandals. With almost $5 million in the bank at the end of September, he also has the financial edge over Yost, but polls indicate that this is still anyone’s race.

Wisconsin may be Democrats’ best chance to oust an incumbent attorney general. Republican Brad Schimel has earned the ire of some Democrats over some possibly questionable public spending choices and a backlog of untested rape kits. The Democratic AG association planned to devote $2 million to the race, while the Republican group allocated $2.5 million. The Democratic candidate — Josh Kaul, a former federal prosecutor and the son of Wisconsin’s last Democratic attorney general — trails Schimel by only 4 points in the latest Marquette University poll.

But it’s not just Democrats who could make gains. Republicans have one big pickup opportunity, too: the open seat in Minnesota. With his strong following among progressive Democrats, U.S. Rep. Keith Ellison started the race as the favorite. However, in August, Ellison’s former romantic partner accused him of physically and emotionally abusing her. The race is now neck and neck. Republican Doug Wardlow has picked up steam by promising not to mix politics with his work as AG, but the longtime conservative activist has already thrown that claim into question.




https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/these-8-attorney-general-races-could-make-a-big-difference-to-trumps-agenda/?ex_cid=538twitter

Dallas County (TX) early voting reaches presidential levels for first day.

Who needs a ride to the polls? Who can offer a ride to the polls?

Thread is self-explanatory. Please keep it kicked up for visibility.

DCCC jumps into the FL-15 race