HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Bernblu » Journal
Page: 1

Bernblu

Profile Information

Member since: Tue Sep 22, 2015, 02:40 PM
Number of posts: 441

Journal Archives

Did Hillary win Iowa caucus on coin flips?

I read in multiple places that Hillary won six of seven coin flips for delegates. If true, did she win the caucus on coin flips? She currently leads by 4 delegate with one precinct in Des Moines outstanding. Were there no coin flips, Bernie would be leading by one delegate. This shows how undemocratic the caucus process.

Final Quinnipiac Iowa Poll!!! Sanders 49 Clinton 46 O'Malley 3

Bernie can win this!

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2320

My Assessment of the Major Candidates and Why Sanders is the Most Electable G.E. Candidate

There are two major factors that are going to decide the 2016 election:

1)The anti-establishment mood in the country
2) Working and middle class economic issues

The candidate who can best tap into these basic factors will be best positioned to win the general election.
I think Sanders is that candidate.

Here is my assessment of the leading candidates:

Sanders is positioned to best gain support from the basic factors driving the election if he can do two things:
1) Continue to maintain relatively high likability ratings
2) Convince voters he can lead the military and keep them safe.

If he can do both of these things well he can win in a wave election. I expect him to accomplish both tasks well enough to win.

Clinton's problem is twofold: she will be the establishment candidate who has low likability ratings. This would normally be fatal were it not for the poor crop of Republican candidates. She is running against the anti-establishment tide and because she is not viewed as trustworthy outside of her core groups,it will be difficult for her to win new voters based on her positions on the issues. Her best chance of winning is to draw an unpopular or an incompetent opponent. If she is the nominee, expect a close contest (51-49 or 52-48) that could go either way with little of no coattails.

Trump could have won this election if he was a competent politician and not a boy in a man's body. He has a chance to win the nomination but he will have almost no chance of beating Sanders and except for a major scandal, little chance of beating Clinton.

Cruz is the most dangerous Republican candidate now running because he is fairly intelligent and will attempt to tap into the anti-establishment mood. He would for this reason run better against Clinton. If he could make himself less scary and more likable he could be the next Reagan. I don't expect him to succeed and so I expect him to likely lose to both Clinton and Sanders,

Rubio - I am underwhelmed by Rubio's performance so far. I see him as a light weight playing above his weight.However, because he is the least objectionable and the most generic of the major Republican candidates, he could, barring a major scandal, run a very close race against Clinton but probably lose to Sanders.

Bush has not much of a chance to win because his name is Bush. He has little chance to win the nomination but if he is the nominee he would be viewed as an establishment dandy without a clue about the middle class. Bush would probably run best against Clinton but probably lose 51-49 or 52-48 in a low turnout election.

The other Republicans: Carson, Christie, Kasich, Florina, and Paul have almost no chance of being nominated. So, I am going to bypass them.

There are two other Republican who could win if they were drafted: Romney and Ryan. I think each would probably have a good shot at defeating Clinton in a very close election. I think Sanders would probably beat them but a close election loss for Sanders would be possible.

Bernie's Blue Ocean Political Strategy

Here's an interesting article about how Bernie's campaign is implementing the “Blue Ocean Strategy:"

“Blue Ocean Strategy” might be one of the best business books in a decade. In a nutshell the strategy forsakes traditional competition for exploration and market creation.

WikiPedia:

The book uses many examples across industries to demonstrate how to break out of traditional competitive (structuralist) strategic thinking and to grow demand and profits for the company and the industry by using blue ocean (reconstructionist) strategic thinking. The four principles are:

how to create uncontested market space by reconstructing market boundaries,
1) focusing on the big picture,
2) reaching beyond existing demand and
3) getting the strategic sequence right.
4) Using Blue Ocean how would one build a more effective political enterprise?


To read more follow the link:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2015/12/24/1463372/-Bernie-s-Blue-Ocean-Political-Strategy

My take on last night's election results from Kentucky

It was confirmation of what Bernie has been saying: Unless the Democratic party start representing the interests of working people they will not vote in the numbers needed for Democrats to win. Most working people, of all colors and ethnic backgrounds, are turned off by politics and that is why there was an abysmally low voter turnout in Kentucky yesterday and nationally in 2014.

When I was young, working people knew that the Democrats represented their economic interests and that is why the Democrats controlled the White House and congress for most of years from 1932 until 1980. We had a strong middle class and working people were optimistic about their future.

So, what did the Democrats do: They sold out to the corporations, first on deregulation and giving up on on full employment and Keynesian economics (ie buying into the Republican tropes on balancing the budget and fiscal responsibility).. Then they supported and implemented trade deals that sent good jobs overseas while giving displaced workers a voucher to retrain for jobs that didn't exist. If this happened to you would you vote for a party that worked you over in this way?

The Democrats then went along with the Republicans and gutted the safety net for the same people whose jobs went overseas. They also went along with Republicans and voted for minimum sentencing and other laws that put greater numbers of working people in prison, often for minor drug offenses. But God forbid if Bankers take down the entire economy! They get no prison time! Last but not least, many Democrats supported Bush in his war in Iraq, fought on the backs of working people while the wealthy got tax breaks.

Working people are not stupid. They will no longer be participants in this corrupt charade. Those who believe that Clinton is going to be a strong candidate have a surprise coming. The Democratic brand has been tarnished and working people simply will not support the same old politics as usual. Even if Clinton managed to squeak by a weak Republican candidate the problems of the Democrats with working people will continue until the party is no longer viable as a national party.

The Democrats must revive their brand as the party of working people. Over many election cycles, they need to, at every electoral level, back and support candidates like Sanders who unabashedly support and work for working people and not the pro-corporate agenda of the third-way and establishment Democrats.

Bernie's campaign is not in trouble

because his campaign is not like Hlllary's campaign, a personal quest for achievement and power, that cannot run on its own issues and ideas. So it runs on Bernie's issues and ideas while attempting to swiftboat him in a contemptible manner that would make Karl Rove and Lee Atwater proud.

Hillary's campaign, even if she wins, will just be more of the same, more income inequality, more bad trade policies, and more support for her big donors at the expense of working people and the middle class. If she wins, she will be remembered as the first woman president but for little else except that her third-way neo-liberal pro-corporate policies continued the downfall and hallowing out of the American working and middle classes.

Bernie's campaign's is a campaign fighting for our very democracy and to win for every American their universal right to healthcare, a job, a livable wage, a free college education, and the right to retire and live in dignity. His campaign is also fighting to save the environment and for all of the other important issues and policies that can be viewed on Bernie's website:

https://berniesanders.com/issues/

Bernie's campaign is not merely a campaign but a movement. it is not based on an egotistical desire to be President but is based on the goals mentioned above: to right our democracy, to achieve universal rights for the American people, and to achieve the issues and policies discussed on Bernie's website. The quickest way to achieve these things would be to elect Bernie President. But win or lose, Bernie and his movement will continue to fight until they win their goals.

The Six Major Political Rules of the Clintons - A Guide to the Politically Perplexed

Some people still don't understand how the Clintons operate politically.

Why did Bill sign DOMA and other regressive legislation. Why is Hilary always evolving and changing positions? Why did Hillary find it so difficult to apologize on Iraq and her email and why does she often blame her unpopular decisions on factors beyond her control. Why did Hillary imply that Bernie was sexist after he drew a contrast between himself and the Clintons on DOMA and Iraq that painted them in a poor light?

Here are six rules to understand how the Clintons operate politically:

1) At all times act in your own self interest first and foremost.

2) Do whatever it takes to increase and protect your power and wealth. The people affected by your decisions are secondary.

3) Any proposal or policy for the greater good must follow rules one and two.

4) Always take credit for popular decisions and policies but blame others or other factors beyond your control for unpopular decisions and policies.

5) Never apologize for an unpopular decision unless there is absolutely no other alternative as determined by focus groups and polls.

6) If an unpopular decision cannot be explained away blame your opponent(s) of doing the same thing or make up a false equivalent and use it against your opponent.

Machiavelli could write a book on it.

F.B.I. Chief Links Scrutiny of Police With Rise in Violent Crime

FBI Director James Comey blamed the recent rise in violent crime on scrutiny of police. It is time for President Obama to put up or shut up regarding Black Lives Matter. Obama needs to weigh in on whether he agrees with Comey and if doesn't agree he needs to remove Comey from the directorship. I would also like the Democratic candidates weigh in on whether they agree or disagree with Comey's statements and which actions, if any, they would take regarding Mr. Comey's FBI directorship.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/24/us/politics/fbi-chief-links-scrutiny-of-police-with-rise-in-violent-crime.html?

Sanders won 44%-29% in a poll of people who actually watched the debate

https://www.google.com/insights/consumersurveys/view?survey=6z4jimxu674gg&question=2

These poll results reflect the focus group results favoring Sanders immediately after the debate:

Other polls that showed Clinton winning included people who who watched only clips or merely heard about the debate in the news and were, therefore, subject to influence by media coverage claiming that Clinton won.

These poll results indicate that Sanders' message was well received by actual debate viewers.
Go to Page: 1