honest.abe
honest.abe's Journal538: Bloomberg Bet Big On California. It Might Not Pay Off.
And California is, in many ways, the maximal test of Bloombergs strategy. Hes invested a lot in other big Super Tuesday states like Texas, but California is the state where his dollars should carry him the furthest, because its media markets are so expensive and the states large, diverse population makes it hard to set up an effective ground game.
His spending spree has certainly gotten him somewhere in California. Bloomberg is now polling around 13 percent in California, according to our average, up from 4 percent in January. But Californians also love to tell you about the self-funded candidates who have tried and failed to spend their way into public office. Take Meg Whitman, Carly Fiorina, Michael Huffington or Al Checchi. After this Tuesday, well know whether Bloomberg will join that inglorious pantheon or whether Californias unexpected contribution to the Democratic nomination process is the elevation of a self-funded billionaires candidacy.
Right now, it seems like Bloomberg will finish in third or fourth place even though he has spent tens of millions of dollars in the state. But after seeing Bloombergs swanky office, I wanted to find out how ordinary Californians were feeling about his campaign. After spending several days talking to voters across Los Angeles, one thing became clear: Bloombergs spending has bought him notoriety, but hasnt translated into widespread enthusiasm.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bloomberg-bet-big-on-california-it-might-not-pay-off/
If Bloomberg's big bet fails in California, Biden will likely be the beneficiary, and not just in California but in other states where Bloomberg was polling high. It does appear the stars are aligning for a big day for Biden tomorrow.
New CA poll post SC: Biden gets 7 point bump
The results were weighted by gender, race, age, and education using a Random Iterative Model. The models weighting efficiency was 45 percent. The weighting efficiency was primarily driven downward by the raw sample being tilted towards those with a higher education, and slightly tilted towards white voters. RIM models correct for this by appropriately weighting groups that are under or overrepresented in the sample. Population estimates for the demographics were obtained through a combination of third-party provided voter-file data and exit polls.
https://www.pointblankpolitical.com/2020-ca-dem-primary-post-sc/
This is good news for Biden but I suspect the vote tomorrow will be even better for him. If accurate this will be a huge blow to Sanders plan to accumulate a big lead over Biden after Super Tuesday. In fact I think ST is going to be a wash with neither candidate (Biden or Sanders) gaining much on the other.
538: What Biden's Big South Carolina Win Might Mean
Interesting analysis by Nate Silver.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-bidens-big-south-carolina-win-might-mean-for-sanders/
I think its a combination of hypothesis 4 and 5... which would be very good for Biden and bad for Sanders.
The results from tonight probably mean Sanders will not have a significant plurality..
much less a majority. Which means Biden is well positioned to win this on the second ballot.
One more final SC poll! Emerson College shows Biden with 16% lead.
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/south-carolina-2020-biden-poised-to-win-his-first-contest
Looking very good for the Biden campaign today. This should give him a big boost into Super Tuesday. Could change the entire trajectory of this primary.
It will be interesting to see how the Sanders campaign spins this huge loss in the first big diverse state primary. I would say its probably not a good idea to say "too many black folk".
NOTE: Operation Chaos Republicans were included in this poll.
SC SHOCK POLL! Clemson University Palmetto Poll: Biden 35% Sanders 13%
Voters in the poll were asked: "If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?"
- Joe Biden 35%
- Tom Steyer 17%
- Bernie Sanders 13%
- Elizabeth Warren 8%
- Pete Buttigieg 8%
- Amy Klobuchar 4%
- Tulsi Gabbard 2%
- Unsure 12%
more: https://www.wyff4.com/article/clemsons-university-palmetto-poll-results-released-ahead-of-saturdays-primary/31116432
New PPP South Carolina -- Biden regains big lead! +15 over Sanders
Joe Biden 36%
Bernie Sanders 21%
Elizabeth Warren 8%
Tom Steyer 7%
Pete Buttigieg 7%
Tulsi Gabbard 6%
Amy Klobuchar 3%
Someone else / Undecided 11%
https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/SouthCarolinaResultsFebruary2020.pdf
Other recent polls have found Steyers support in the 15-20% range. If he has indeed collapsed, as our poll seems to suggest, it appears his former supporters are making their way to Biden and helping him to open a bigger lead in the state. The key to Bidens success continues to be strong support from African Americans- he gets 50% to 21% for Sanders, with no one else polling above 6%.
The South Carolina numbers show the difficulty Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, and even Elizabeth Warren are going to face as the Democratic contest moves to more diverse states. The race is actually pretty close among white voters with Sanders getting 22%, Biden 20%, and Warren and Buttigieg each 15%. But Warren and Buttigieg are each at 2% with black voters, dropping their overall support into single digits. Klobuchar gets just 1% with African Americans.
https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/south-carolina-looks-like-a-two-person-race/
Looks like Joe got his mojo back!
Michael Bloomberg gives record $1.8 billion to Johns Hopkins for financial aid
I know this is old news but perhaps some may not have heard about it. To me this is a very big deal and it will help many many students attend one of the best universities in the world and is another example of Bloomberg trying to do the right thing with his wealth.
"This historic gift reflects Mike Bloomberg's deep belief in the transformative power of higher education and his insistence that it be accessible to all qualified students, regardless of financial means," Johns Hopkins University President Ronald J. Daniels wrote in a message to the university community today. "It also affirms Mike's profound devotion to this university for the role that it played in enriching his life."
Bloomberg, a 1964 Johns Hopkins graduate, announced his historic gift in a New York Times op-ed in which he identified college affordability as a national challenge.
"America is at its best when we reward people based on the quality of their work, not the size of their pocketbook," Bloomberg said. "Denying students entry to a college based on their ability to pay undermines equal opportunity. It perpetuates intergenerational poverty. And it strikes at the heart of the American dream: the idea that every person, from every community, has the chance to rise based on merit."
https://hub.jhu.edu/2018/11/18/michael-bloomberg-record-financial-aid-gift/
Polls show that many Americans don't think they are benefiting from the bustling economy.
From the Hill..
A Monmouth University Poll found that more than half of Americans don't think they've been substantially helped by the strong macroeconomic trends, with 27 percent saying they haven't benefited much and another 27 percent saying they haven't benefited at all.
Just 12 percent said the strong economy has helped their family a great deal.
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/441202-polls-show-possible-economic-weak-spots-for-trump
This is a very good sign. Even a "good" economy wont help Trump win the election.
Profile Information
Member since: Sun Dec 3, 2017, 10:40 AMNumber of posts: 8,678