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bluewater

bluewater's Journal
bluewater's Journal
February 4, 2020

Bernie Sanders just SAVED the Democratic Party

Here is why...

Before Bernie demanded greater transparency about the Iowa Caucus results reporting process

THERE WAS NO PAPER TRAIL.

Yep, that's right. THIS is the first time there is a paper trail of the Iowa Caucus votes that can be re-counted.


Imagine the even more immense debacle this would all be without a paper trail.

It might have been enough to damage our 2020 chances against Trump by discrediting our primaries and sowing irreparable dissension.

So, I will say it for all of us...

Thank you Bernie, thank you for getting us a paper trail in the Iowa Caucus.



February 3, 2020

I will be honest about setting expectations for my candidate.

There's a lot of "lowering expectations" gamesmanship going on in posts today as people get just a little nervous about tonight's caucus.

So let me buck that trend and tell you what would be a damaging sub-par performance for my preferred candidate, Senator Elizabeth Warren.

Finishing fourth would be very bad. Damn near campaign ending.


Third place would be meh. Second place a reason to keep fighting hard. Winning a huge plus.

Anyone else care to share what they think would be a damaging performance by their candidate? Add your upside takes too, but you need to say what a bad performance would be.

February 3, 2020

Getting 1 delegate tonight qualifies you for the Debate!

The DNC rules for the next debate says that anyone getting 1 delegate in either Iowa or New Hampshire would qualify for the Feb. Debate.

Will Bloomberg or Yang get that lucky one magic delegate? Will Klobuchar?

February 3, 2020

What excuses will Pollsters give when they turn out to be wrong about Iowa?

lol

The polls for Iowa, and the primary in general, have been all over the place.

Yeah, we are told to just average them out to get a better picture of the polling landscape, but averaging in erroneous polls does impact the aggregate polling average. But that was the best we could do before actual voting started.

Now though, we can soon see which pollsters were most accurate in predicting Iowa
.

Should we continue to blindly accept polling predictions going forward from pollsters that end up being off by a lot?



February 2, 2020

Joni Ernst: Republicans would "immediately" push to impeach Joe Biden

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1224064753330544641

And there we have a preview of just how possible it will be to "work with" Republicans in Congress.



Edit: Seems Joni has deleted her tweet.
February 2, 2020

Oh NO! South Carolina slipping away from Joe!

https://twitter.com/MegKinnardAP/status/1223974402410319872

Seems that South Carolina "firewall" the Biden Campaign was counting on is starting to crumble, doesn't it?



February 1, 2020

My Bold yet Insightful Amy Klobuchar Prediction for Iowa

Senator Amy Klobuchar will finish 4th in Iowa, ahead of former VP Joe Biden in 5th place.

You heard that here first.

February 1, 2020

The Iowa Expectation Game

Tell us what place the candidates must finish in the Iowa Caucus to meet expectations. Also, what finish would be particularly disappointing or invigorating.

Here are mine:

Biden: I expect him to finish 3rd. A 5th place finish would be a major disappointment. Winning would be a major plus.


Sanders: Is expected to finish 1st. Anything lower would be an increasing disappointment for his campaign.


Warren: Is expected to finish 3rd. A 2nd place finish would be a major plus, finishing 4th would be damaging.


Buttigieg: I expect him to finish 2nd. Anything lower would be deflating to his campaign. 4th place would be
curtains.


Kloubuchar: I predict a surprise 4th place finish. Finishing 3rd would skyrocket her chances.


Yang: I predict a 6th place finish. If he can win a few district level delegates, that would be a major win and qualify him for the next debate.





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