bluewater
bluewater's JournalHuh, despite SC, it seems Sanders is still the frontrunner!
Huh.
Biden 51
Buttigieg 26
Warren 8
Klobuchar 7
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-primary-elections/delegate-count
Looking at Nevada and SC we can see why this is.
While Biden had a great SC Primary getting 77% of the assigned delegates, Sanders also had a big win in Nevada where he got 66% of the delegates.
Sanders 24 <--- 66% of Nevada Delegates.
Biden 9
Buttigieg 3
Biden 36 <-- 77% of SC delegates
Sanders 11
What does this mean going forward?
Well, Biden will obviously do well in states where African Americans make up 50-60% of the total primary voters.
In more demographically balanced states, his advantage will be less.
Sanders seems to over perform with Latinx voters, as shown by his win in Nevada. The SC primary exit polls show that Latinos made up only 2% of the voters yesterday, and that affected Sanders totals there.
On Super Tuesday, the electorates in the primary rich states of Texas and California more closely resemble Nevada than South Carolina, so expect Sanders to do well there.
But Arkansas, Alabama and North Carolina will have a large % of voters be African American, so Biden should perform well in those states.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/winning-super-tuesday-without-winning-states/ar-BB10AC07
Overall, I expect that Sanders will increase his lead in delegate on Super Tuesday significantly.
Time will tell.
Lawmaker: no memory of any confrontation at the airport as described by Biden
https://twitter.com/GlennKesslerWP/status/1233463903943905282Wow, that's a direct contradiction of Biden's claim there was a confrontation at the airport, let alone an "arrest".
That was a "Further Update" from the Washington Post 1:46 PM · Feb 28, 2020
Steyer suggests Biden's talk of working with Republicans is naive
https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1233472138163736576Tom Steyer: “I hate to be rude ... but President Obama couldn’t work with them.”
More to the point, Joe was VP when the Republicans stole an Obama Supreme Court appointment.
Merrick Garland says hello.
Joe could not talk the Republicans into giving Merrick Garland a Senate hearing!
Super Tuesday is in 4 Days and Buttigieg has not released any medical records.
Why?
All the other candidates, even including Sanders, have released at least some medical information.
If people want full disclosure from Sanders, wouldn't it make sense for Pete to release his own records to pressure Bernie into doing that?
Pete is by far the youngest candidate and was in the military fairly recently, so I remain baffled why he has not released his medical records.
Don't the voters have a right to see those? Especially before Super Tuesday?
And please, don't shoot the messenger for asking this question. It just seems like it's getting very late in the 2020 primary to not have released at least a summary of his medical condition.
As a Warren supporter, I think it only reasonable for Buttigieg to release as much information as she has before Super Tuesday.
very bad news for every candidate not named Bernard
https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1233442449328156673The polls are what the polls are.
According to this poll, Sanders is the only candidate meeting the 15% threshold in California.
Warren is in second at 14%, I sure hope she can get bumped up over 15%.
Bloomberg has spent $510 MILLION+ on his own presidential campaign.
https://twitter.com/myhlee/status/1233419199990681600Fun tool to compare items in your everyday budget to Bloomberg's campaign spending.
Biden acknowledges he wasn't arrested in South Africa despite earlier claims
https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1233409032284786688Better late than never.
"When I said arrested, I meant I was not able, I was not able to move ... I wasn't arrested, I was stopped. I was not able to move where I wanted to go," Biden told CNN's John Berman on "New Day."
Biden had recently claimed multiple times on the campaign trail that he was arrested on the trip to South Africa during apartheid. He's used the story as part of his larger efforts to connect with African American voters ahead of the South Carolina primary, where a big showing is critical if he is to remain viable in the race.
Visit CNN's Election Center for full coverage of the 2020 race
"This day 30 years ago, Nelson Mandela walked out of prison and entered into discussions about apartheid. I had the great honor of meeting him. I had the great honor of being arrested with our UN ambassador on the streets of Soweto trying to get to see him on (Robben) Island," Biden said at his South Carolina launch party in Columbia earlier this month.
On February 16, Biden said that he "got arrested trying to see" Nelson Mandela in prison, and on February 18, he said the same thing again as part of a story about trying to get his wife, Jill, to marry him.
The New York Times could not find any mention of an arrest in a review of news accounts, and a former United States ambassador to the United Nations, who had joined Biden on that trip, rebutted Biden's account to the newspaper.
Yeah, Joe just misspoke.
Bernie Sanders Can Beat Trump. Here's the Math.
Most available evidence points in the direction of a popular vote and Electoral College victory.
By Steve Phillips
Mr. Phillips is the author of “Brown Is the New White: How the Demographic Revolution Has Created a New American Majority.”
Whatever you think about Bernie Sanders as a potential president, it is wrong to dismiss his chances of winning the office. Not only does most of the available empirical evidence show Mr. Sanders defeating President Trump in the national popular vote and in the critical Midwestern states that tipped the Electoral College in 2016, but his specific electoral strengths align with changes in the composition of the country’s population in ways that could actually make him a formidable foe for the president.
Almost all of the current polling data shows Mr. Sanders winning the national popular vote. In the most recent national polls testing Democratic candidates against Mr. Trump, Mr. Sanders beat him in every single one, with margins varying from 2 percent to 6 percent. This has been the case for nearly a year now, with Mr. Sanders outpolling the president in 67 of 72 head-to-head polls since March.
As 2016 proved when Hillary Clinton defeated Mr. Trump in the popular vote by nearly three million votes, however, the Electoral College is what matters most. There, Mr. Sanders also does well, outperforming Mr. Trump in polls of the pivotal battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. In the one poll showing significant Trump strength in Wisconsin (Quinnipiac), Mr. Sanders still fares the best of the Democratic contenders.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/28/opinion/bernie-sanders-polls.html?referringSource=articleShare
The math is what the math is.
Post and Courier Poll: Biden 28% Sanders 24% Steyer 16% Warren 12%
https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1233164903176908800The Post and Courier Poll is considered by many to be the bellwether poll for the SC Primary.
Man o man, this Saturday is going to be exciting!
Fingers crossed that Warren can break 15% and get some SC delegates heading into Super Tuesday.
Right now Warren is in 2nd place in delegate rich California!
Best of luck to everyone and their preferred candidates!
(And isn't it nice that Bloomberg isn't on the ballot in SC?)
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