November 10, 2020

California and New York need to count their votes early

For that matter, every blue state should. We need the mail in and early vote counted before Election Day so those vote totals posts 20-30 minutes after polls close in those states. They can count late arriving ballots afterward, but there is no reason not to start counting the bulk of the votes 2 weeks in advance.

If CA and NY posted big vote numbers at poll close, it would change the narrative on election night and immediately afterward, and also highlight how ridiculous the electoral college is. If both states dropped their early vote like TX and FL do, the narrative every election night would be that Democrats are crushing Republicans. Instead, the narrative is "close race" and the Democratic candidate does not pull way ahead until a week later, after everyone has stopped paying attention. Biden is going to win by 6-7 million votes and most people will think this was a close election. That is our own fault.

Furthermore, if the Democrat nominee was ahead by 4 million votes nationally at 11:15 when CA's early numbers came in, it would be hard to ignore in the studios that one candidate was crushing the other but the race was remotely in doubt because of an anachronistic system based on the most horrific institution in American history, slavery.

November 10, 2020

Something Democrats MUST DO going forward to change the narrative

Democrats have to stop accepting the GOP's premises such as "popular vote doesn't matter". The popular vote doesn't matter because of anachronistic rules developed under slavery, and because Republicans say it doesn't matter. The Democrats must point out that the electoral college is a legacy of slavery every time it comes up, I mean, every single time. If, 3 months from now, someone is talking about the election, the liberal on the panel has to say "that is a legacy of slavery". If a Republican starts to defend the electoral college, ask them why they are defending slavery.

We need to make the narrative Electoral College = Slavery.

November 8, 2020

Murkowski and Romney

Is there a deal with the devil to be made in the Senate?

Romney is a lot more moderate than the rest of the GOP. He will be 77 when his term ends, is worth $250 million, and doesn't need this shit of working with a party that hates him. I think the chance of him running again is slim to none.

Murkowski is going to get a primary challenge in 2022. She dodged the last one 10 years ago by running as a write-in, and pulled it off, but the Democrats are going to be prepared for a split GOP this time and will have a real candidate to try to steal a seat.

What if Romney and Murkowski switched to independents, and caucused with Democrats for leadership, or even split the leadership of the Senate? I am thinking of ANYTHING to get Mitch McConnell out of the Majority Leader position.

Obviously, Ossoff and Warnock sweeping Georgia are Plan A, but Schumer's leverage is at its highest if he goes to Murkowski and Romney right now with an offer.

November 2, 2020

The election is close to over in the Sun Belt

The following is the 2020 early vote as a percent of 2016 total vote.

TX: 108%
NC: 95%
GA: 93.7%
FL: 90.8%
AZ: 86.5%
NV: 91.2%

The Midwest states of WI (63%), MI (53%), OH (52%) and PA (39%) still have a lot of vote left to get.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

I think this is why none of the candidates or top surrogates are in the South today. They are targeting GOTV in the South, and bringing the big names to the Midwest. Let's bring it home.

October 30, 2020

Don't let the media or Republicans dictate the story

There are a flood of bad polls being released showing a tightening race. This is blatant manipulation to try to change the story and set the news cycle.

Clear out the riff raff and focus on polls by respected organizations like the national news organizations (yes, including Fox), and respected polling services like Monmouth, Marist, Quinnipiac, Suffolk, PPP, SurveyUSA, and even Ipsos and IBD. There are maybe 15 polling services that matter. The rest of them, like Rasmussen, are trolling us.

Biden has about a 10 point national lead. He has leads of almost 10 points in NE-2, Wisconsin and Michigan, and about 6-7 points in Pennsylvania. He is up about 4-5 in Arizona, Florida and ME-2, and up 1-2 points in Georgia and North Carolina. Texas, Ohio and Iowa are tied.

Biden needs to win 38 EVs out of that pile. Trump needs to win 145. And even calling Wisconsin, Michigan and NE-2 "swing" states is a misnomer. South Carolina, Montana, Kansas and Alaska will be narrower victories for Trump than NE-2, Wisconsin and Michigan will be for Biden.

Most of the votes have already been cast in every one of those states but Pennsylvania. The race isn't tightening, it is almost over.

If you are still freaking out, volunteer to call and or text swing state voters to GOTV. Volunteer to help with local races. There has to be a close State Rep or State Senate race near you. Whatever you do, don't listen to hacks like Steve Kornacki spin a story that the race is "tightening".

October 21, 2020

What is the site that shows the early voting by state?

I think I accidentally deleted the link.

October 19, 2020

Biden is going to win, but if you want something to be afraid of this election

focus on the down ticket races, ESPECIALLY in the state houses.

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/08/17/election-2020-key-states-could-swing-democrats-republicans/3298836001/

If the Democrats get control of the state houses in Florida, Texas, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Arizona and Michigan, they can make a lot of positive change in a lot of people's lives. They would also control reapportionment, which could move 50+ house seats from red to blue. Imagine if Pelosi or the next Speaker did not have to protect 40 swing seats, but could actually run a progressive agenda.

That is what you should worry about. Don't just focus on Biden's lead in your state, because odds are high that somewhere on your ballot is a Democrat in a dogfight. Every single vote will matter.

October 8, 2020

Trump skipping virtual debate is an empty threat

Biden will show up regardless, and Trump can't have Biden there by himself. Trump will try to cancel the debate, but if that doesn't work, he will be there.

October 6, 2020

Trump's Nero Decrees

There will be many of them in the next 3 and a half months. Breaking off stimulus was certainly not the last one. Trump's Fed Chair is begging for stimulus, and Trump prefers to let us burn.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/06/fed-chair-powell-relief-economy-426793

October 3, 2020

I can tell you who is freaking out right now

Whichever Russians loaned Trump $1.1 billion to launder through his crappy golf courses. Not a clear path to get that money back with Trump at Walter Reed.