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Latest YouGov National Poll

Biden 54%
Klansman 43%

I know a lot of folks discount national polls, however as the popular vote margin increases the probability of a popular vote/Electoral College split decreases. Also, the *Klansman* is at 42% approval. Those are not re-elect numbers.


The GOP's monstrous math problem

(Axios) Republicans, win or lose next week, face a big — and growing — math problem.

The state of play: They're relying almost exclusively on a shrinking demographic (white men), living in shrinking areas (small, rural towns), creating a reliance on people with shrinking incomes (white workers without college degrees) to survive.

Why it matters: You can't win elections without diversity, bigger population centers and sufficient money.


Democrats see signs of hidden Biden voters flipping from GOP

(The Hill) Call them the secret Biden voters. Political observers say there is a group of voters that has emerged in this cycle: Republicans who have never supported a Democratic candidate — not for the city council, Congress or president — who suddenly find themselves set to vote for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. And they don’t want anyone to know it.

In 2016, some strategists concluded that a number of voters were secretly voting for Donald Trump but were not getting picked up by pollsters. This year, strategists are wondering about Biden voters in red states and counties who are not waving signs and are keeping their views relatively quiet, but who could help the former vice president not only win states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, but also other states Democrats lost to Trump in 2016, such as Iowa, North Carolina and Georgia, where the vice president visited on Tuesday.


Cook Political moves Texas to Tossup!

(Cook Political) Texas is a state that Biden doesn't need to win, but it is clear that it's more competitive than ever. Texas' shift from Lean Republican to Toss Up shouldn't come as a surprise. Recent polling in the state — both public and private - shows a 2-4 point race. That's pretty much in line with the hotly contested 2018 Senate race in the state where Sen. Ted Cruz narrowly defeated Rep. Beto O'Rourke 51 percent to 48 percent. A huge surge in early vote (as of October 26th, almost half of Texas' registered voters had already cast a ballot) suggests that we could see record turnout in a state that has added many new residents since 2016. That also adds a level of uncertainty to the equation.


Trump's rallies are actually making voters in battleground states LESS favorable towards him

(Guy Cecil) Trump’s rallies are actually making voters in battleground states LESS favorable towards him. The numbers are even worse for Trump among persuadable voters. Here are the numbers from the latest polling from @prioritiesUSA.


White House science office takes credit for 'ending' pandemic as infections mount

(Politico) The White House’s science policy office on Tuesday ranked “ending the Covid-19 pandemic” atop the list of President Donald Trump’s top first-term accomplishments, even as the country registers record amounts of infections and hospitals fill up again. The list, included in a press release from the Office of Science and Technology Policy credits the administration for taking “decisive actions to engage scientists and health professionals in academia, industry, and government to understand, treat, and defeat the disease.”


Trump Campaign: COVID Surge In Wisconsin Not A Problem Because Pence Has Great Doctors

(The Recount) CNN's @AlisynCamerota: "Hospitals in WI are near capacity. Does that give you any pause about going there and holding a big rally?"

Trump 2020 Press Sec. Hogan Gidley: “No, it doesn’t ... the VP has the best doctors in the world around him."


Trump says plot to kidnap Whitmer was "maybe a problem, maybe it wasn't"

(Raw Story) In a startling moment during his Michigan rally Tuesday, President Donald Trump implied that the militia that attempted to kidnap and kill Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) was maybe or maybe not all that big of a problem. “People are entitled to say maybe it was a problem, maybe it wasn’t,” Trump told his rally.

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