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FIVE more days.... My Daily Home Stretch Election Polling Update. We are so close! All good news

Five more days and I will retire this thing, but it's been fun to document the run up to the election and demonstrate how consistent the polling remains.

538 - today - Oct 29 - Joe 89/100 chance of winning, 346 EVs, 53.3% of the popular vote

Sam Wang Princeton - today - Oct 29 - Joe metamargin +6.0, 357 EVs

The Economist - today - Oct 29 - Joe 96/100 chance of winning, 356 EVs, 54.6% of the popular vote

For the 18th day in a row, no significant sign at all of race tightening; in fact, teeny signs of improvement.


Cook Political Report: Democrats Favored to Win the Senate

(Political Wire) Democrats remain the clear favorites to take back the Senate with just days to go until Election Day. A lack of tightening in the presidential race as President Trump continues to be a drag downballot is set to doom many Republican incumbents. At this point, many GOP strategists just hope to keep their losses to a minimum and prevent a blue tidal wave.


If you see any Trump supporters touting the GDP report today, show them these

(Steve Rattner) Where does today’s GDP report put Trump’s performance relative to his predecessors? Through Q3, dead last at +1.0%. Assuming a consensus gain of 4% in Q4, still dead last.

Before taking a victory lap over the Q3 “record gain” in GDP recall the record decline that preceded it.

With regard to Trump’s promised ‘V’-shaped recovery, today’s rebound simply brought us back to 2Q18 GDP levels.


New Report on Trump Administration Family Separation Policy

(Medium) Today, the House Judiciary Committee released the findings of its 21-month investigation into the development and execution of the Trump Administration’s family separation policy, which resulted in more than 2,500 migrant children becoming unnecessarily separated from their parents. The report, entitled “The Trump Administration’s Family Separation Policy: Trauma, Destruction, and Chaos,” provides the first complete narrative of the inhumane family separation policy, in the Administration’s own words. The investigation revealed the Trump Administration’s family separation policy lasted far longer than is commonly known and was marked by reckless incompetence and intentional cruelty.


Trump laments that he has to run around begging for votes

(CNN) President Donald Trump is ending his reelection bid in a frenzied cross-country push for votes in states he won -- some handily -- four years ago. But he is not pretending to be happy about it.

"It wasn't even going to be like we had an election," Trump said on a rain-drenched tarmac in Lansing, Michigan, on Tuesday, lamenting that the coronavirus had imperiled his political prospects and, in his telling, forced him to return to the cold grind and meteorological mishaps of the campaign trail.

"I probably wouldn't be standing out here in the freezing rain with you," he told a crowd of hearty souls who had been standing for hours in persistent drizzle to hear him speak. "I'd be home in the White House, doing whatever the hell I was doing. I wouldn't be out here."


In battleground states, Trump grapples with a surging foe: Coronavirus

(NBC News) “Covid, covid, covid, covid, covid, covid cases — do you ever notice they use the word 'cases'? Like Barron Trump has a case, sniffles, one Kleenex and he was better,” Trump told a tightly packed, mostly mask-less crowd here in Michigan's state capital, in remarks downplaying the severity of the virus.


White House coronavirus taskforce (Fauci) warns of 'unrelenting' spread

(The Guardian) The White House coronavirus taskforce is warning of a persistent and broad spread of Covid-19 in the western half of the United States and its members urged aggressive mitigation measures. “We are on a very difficult trajectory. We’re going in the wrong direction,” said Dr Anthony Fauci, the lead public health official on the task force and director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Fauci noted that coronavirus cases are rising in 47 states and patients are overwhelming hospitals across the US. “If things do not change, if they continue on the course we’re on, there’s going to be a whole lot of pain in this country with regard to additional cases and hospitalizations, and deaths,” Fauci said in an interview with CNBC Wednesday night.

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