democrattotheend
democrattotheend's JournalMorning Consult polls have Biden up +2 in Texas, +1 in Georgia, +10 in MI...but only +3 in MN?
Check out these new Morning Consult polls:
WI Biden 50 Trump 43 (D+7)
VA Biden 52 Trump 41 (D+11)
TX Biden 47 Trump 45 (D+2)
PA Biden 50 Trump 42 (D+8)
OH Biden 45 Trump 48 (R+3)
NC Biden 47 Trump 47 (Tie)
MN Biden 47 Trump 44 (D+3)
MI Biden 52 Trump 42 (D+10)
GA Biden 47 Trump 46 (D+1)
FL Biden 49 Trump 46 (D+3)
CO Biden 52 Trump 39 (D+13)
AZ Biden 49 Trump 42 (D+7)
National Biden 51 Trump 43 (D+8)
Anyone else find this odd? How could Biden be winning by 7 in Arizona, 10 in Michigan, 7 in Wisconsin, 8 in Pennsylvania, and even be up slightly in Georgia and Texas, but only up by 3 in Minnesota? Do you think there's a backlash to the unrest that occurred after the George Floyd shooting? I remember thinking at the time when I saw the fires and broken windows in Minneapolis that those images would play right into Trump's hands. Fortunately it seems to have had the opposite effect everywhere else, but I've been saying for a while Minnesota is a state we shouldn't take for granted this year. Hillary barely won it in 2016 (ditto for New Hampshire), and I'd hate to see a repeat of 2016 where states we took for granted end up costing Biden the election. If his big national lead and lead in other states holds Minnesota should be fine (and we don't even need it, though it would be a sad loss, since other than DC it has the longest Democratic voting streak in presidential elections). But if, as in 2016, the polls tighten nationally, states like Minnesota could be Trump's ace in the hole like PA, MI and WI were in 2016.
I voted (NY-03)
For the presidential primary, I discovered that you vote for the delegates separately from the candidate. So this gave me an opportunity to "split the baby", so to speak. I voted for Elizabeth Warren for president, since she's the person I really wanted to vote for and I figure it doesn't matter now so I might as well vote my heart. But for the delegates I split my vote between some of her delegates and some of Yang's because I appreciate Yang's effort to reinstate the primary and give people like me the chance to have a voice, even if it's only symbolic at this point.
For Congress I voted for the progressive challenger, Melanie D'Arrigo. I was a little torn because I am not a fan of Tom Suozzi, but in 2016 he only won 53-47, so I was slightly worried about the seat falling to Republicans if we nominate a progressive. But he won comfortably in 2018 and it's looking to be another good year for Democrats, so I figured it was worth taking a chance. She probably won't win anyway.
This was my first time voting at this polling place because I moved since the last election, and apparently they had a special location for the primary. The polling place was a little far - I had to drive over 3 miles, which isn't that bad, but at my old address I could walk to my polling place. But at least this place had parking, and the poll workers were super nice. I thanked them for their service and volunteering their time. They pointed out that they get paid, but I said they were still performing a public service, especially under the circumstances. I was the only voter there at 8:30 pm, half hour before the polls closed. Cuomo ordered absentee applications to be sent out to every registered voter, so I guess a lot of people voted by mail.
These protests are making me rethink my stance on gun control
Thinking about the military presence and over-armored police in the cities, most of which have strict gun control laws, and contrasting it to the lockdown protests in Michigan last month. I'm not a gun person, but I'm starting to think it's really unfair that in states like New York, people in the mostly white suburbs have the right to own guns, some without even needing a permit, while in the cities that right is almost non-existent for private citizens. There's a big part of me right now that would like to see peaceful black protesters carry guns and assert their "Second Amendment rights" the same way the protesters in Michigan did. Then either the MAGAts defend their right to keep and bear arms, or expose themselves for the utter hypocrites they are. Why should minorities in the cities be required to be practically defenseless against police abuse while white MAGAts in the suburbs openly storm the Michigan state capitol with guns?
Looks like Mitch McConnell did the right thing for once
From Politico:
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Wednesday made an extensive pitch for Americans to don face masks as a means to begin returning the country to normalcy while the coronavirus remains a threat.
“There’s no stigma attached to wearing a mask. There’s no stigma attached to staying six feet apart,” the Kentucky Republican said at an event back in his home state, referencing social distancing guidelines recommended to stem the transmission of the coronavirus.
...
McConnell’s comments targeted at young people came after images of Americans partying over Memorial Day weekend flooded social media and drew rebukes from local health officials.
“That’s not too much to ask of a younger person,” he said of wearing face coverings. “So to get through this next phase, as we ease back into normal, even if you’re in a low-risk category, do what we’re asking you to do for the good of others as we begin to move back to normal.”
I guess even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
Coronavirus new cases/deaths seem to be way down today
Fewer than 1,000 deaths today, and yesterday it was down to 1,154. Before that we were getting between 1800-2900 deaths every day. Is this light at the end of the tunnel, or are there just fewer cases/deaths reported on Sundays and Mondays due to less reporting on the weekends?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Politico: New evidence surfaces in Tara Reade allegation against Biden
Please don't shoot me - I'm just the messenger. I wasn't going to post this when it was on the Intercept only, but now that it's on Politico I figured we can't really bury our heads in the sand. Curious on people's thoughts. The mother didn't mention anything about a sexual assault, but it does corroborate the timing. I really hope this doesn't gain traction. I hate to discredit a woman alleging sexual assault, but the timing just feels too convenient.
As first reported by the Intercept, an unnamed woman from San Luis Obispo, California, called into King's show and said, "I’m wondering what a staffer would do besides go to the press in Washington? My daughter has just left there, after working for a prominent senator, and could not get through with her problems at all, and the only thing she could have done was go to the press, and she chose not to do it out of respect for him."
Reade confirmed to POLITICO it was her mother's voice.
King asked the woman, “She had a story to tell but, out of respect for the person she worked for, she didn’t tell it?"
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/24/tara-reade-biden-video-207670
A little bit of good news: Trump's Gallup rating is down to 44%
Just one poll but it's the one the press pays the most attention to, although I haven't heard them mention it yet today on the news. Down from 47% last time and 49% after impeachment, his highest ever.
Here's hoping it keeps falling. If it's under 40% I'll feel better going into the election.
Before tonight, I was lamenting the "weak" options we had left
After watching this debate, I'm liking both of our remaining candidates better. I still would have preferred Warren and am a little bummed that we ended up with two old white men, but I would be happy to vote for either of these candidates in November. It will probably be Biden and I'm at peace with that, but I am glad Bernie is there fighting for the poor and most vulnerable constantly calling attention to how they are affected by this crisis.
Both of them would be such a huge improvement over Donald Trump, and I think that's on full display tonight.
CNN just said the electorates in most states voting tonight are a little whiter than 2016
Doesn't necessarily mean black turnout is down - it could just mean that white turnout is up more, which may be because in 2016 there was also a competitive Republican primary.
But they also said the electorate was a little more moderate - not sure if that was in comparison to 2016 or to the states that voted last week.
Per MSNBC: Black share of vote in Michigan down slightly from 2016
According to Steve Kornacki, black voters made up 21% of the electorate in Michigan in 2016, and 18% this year. Doesn't mean black turnout is down, just down relative to other groups. No word yet on overall turnout.
Also, the exit poll showed only 57% of Michigan primary voters work full time for pay. Either that means a lot of the voters are retirees or unemployment is that bad in Michigan. But take that with a grain of salt, because I would expect people who work full time to vote later in the day.
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