Loki Liesmith
Loki Liesmith's JournalThink we just lost the Supreme Court case
Kavanaugh softballed House Counsel Doug Letter with a chance to clarify a limiting principle on a House subpoena power and Letter could not do it. Ugh he’s so bad. He’s always been bad. Ugh ugh.
Biden Accuser Charged with Check Kiting a few days before termination?
This seems to be the same person. It’s the same town her mom called Larry King from, which was also a few days after this charge.
https://twitter.com/kyle_teamjoe/status/1258680371551535104?s=21
Update: confirmation from courthouse.
https://twitter.com/kyle_teamjoe/status/1258871897623846917?s=21
Apparently Tara Reade's dad wrote a novel with a sex scene that seems very familiar
This is, to say the least, curious.
on edit: I'm trying to obfuscate the link a little as it's graphic and I don't want people to be upset...
link
IHME COVID-19 deaths model was low by 3K yesterday, looks like down by 4K today by days end
I don't know why they haven't updated their parameters in more than a week. We will be over 45K, maybe close to 46K by the end of today.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
IHME model needs updating badly
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-americaTheir median estimate is still 60k deaths between now and August.
If we are lucky we are just peaking now worth ~ 40k dead. Assuming a completely symmetric peak which is a best case scenario that’s at least 80k deaths by midsummer. But we know the plateau on case growth is a long one, 80k has got to be a lower bound.
On the upside their upper bound confidence envelope is really high so at least they’ve got the upside risk right.
On edit: their lower bound estimate is LOWER than the actual number of deaths right now. What does that even mean?
Feel safe to say we've hit linear growth in C19 deaths this week
The data from the last few days is going to be clunky because of the usual weekend lag in reporting and Easter but even given that it seems fair to say that we have successfully made the derivative of the new deaths curve constant. Maybe even close to zero. The main questions now for me: 1) how long is the plateau/descent. Long tail gets us to 100k verified dead. 2) what is the temperature effect on R? It looks to be real. Is it big enough to explain the relatively fewer cases in the American South? Can we hope for a summer respite?
This will be an informative week. We should know how good the IHME model is by week’s end.
Starting to look like we may be under 100K US deaths given most up to date modeling.
A Sunday update of a prominent COVID-19 forecasting model suggests that fewer lives will be lost during the first wave of the coronavirus outbreak than previously thought.
The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) now predicts that 81,766 people will die of COVID-19 in the U.S. through early August. When the model was last updated, on April 2, it predicted 11,765 deaths more deaths, for a total of 93,531.
The model, which has been cited by the White House, relies on numbers from China, Italy, Spain, and areas around the U.S. The change in prediction is due to “a massive infusion of new data,” IHME director Dr. Christopher Murray said in a press release.
This is fantastic news. It's been clear to me for a while that the exponential trend was fading.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/coronavirus-model-now-predicts-many-fewer-u-s-deaths.html
New Cases of COVID-19 in the US appear to be going linear!
About 20k added each day for the last 3-4 days or so.
We may be off the exponential growth track!
Some significant fraction of this is New York slowing down.
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en
So who outed Northam: positional analysis
Facts:
Getting rid of Northam removes a powerful incumbent Democrat.
VA lt. Governor is still a strong replacement. Unclear if race is a factor in VA politics these days. Potentially racist vote can still be exploited though.
Corey Stewart (an alt right adjacent figure) did not have this info to release.
Was released after a damaging series of abortion politics clips. Seems strategically timed. Info may have been in hand for a while.
Analysis:
Seems likely this was released by a center right Republican who wanted far right Corey Stewart to lose but wanted to increase the chances of a centrist Republican recapturing the seat in the future. At worst this move represents status quo for the center right in VA. At best they may now have ad edge. It was an excellent strategic move.
However the best Democratic countermove is still (imo) to broom Northam. It’s a defensive move with significant downside risk but the alternative is almost all downside.
To the strategist who executed this: well played.
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