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Loki Liesmith

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Member since: Thu May 26, 2016, 09:07 AM
Number of posts: 4,427

About Me

God of lies. Like math.

Journal Archives

Feel safe to say we've hit linear growth in C19 deaths this week

The data from the last few days is going to be clunky because of the usual weekend lag in reporting and Easter but even given that it seems fair to say that we have successfully made the derivative of the new deaths curve constant. Maybe even close to zero. The main questions now for me: 1) how long is the plateau/descent. Long tail gets us to 100k verified dead. 2) what is the temperature effect on R? It looks to be real. Is it big enough to explain the relatively fewer cases in the American South? Can we hope for a summer respite?

This will be an informative week. We should know how good the IHME model is by week’s end.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Mon Apr 13, 2020, 04:23 PM (21 replies)

Starting to look like we may be under 100K US deaths given most up to date modeling.

A Sunday update of a prominent COVID-19 forecasting model suggests that fewer lives will be lost during the first wave of the coronavirus outbreak than previously thought.

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) now predicts that 81,766 people will die of COVID-19 in the U.S. through early August. When the model was last updated, on April 2, it predicted 11,765 deaths more deaths, for a total of 93,531.

The model, which has been cited by the White House, relies on numbers from China, Italy, Spain, and areas around the U.S. The change in prediction is due to “a massive infusion of new data,” IHME director Dr. Christopher Murray said in a press release.

This is fantastic news. It's been clear to me for a while that the exponential trend was fading.

Posted by Loki Liesmith | Tue Apr 7, 2020, 12:59 PM (121 replies)

New Cases of COVID-19 in the US appear to be going linear!

About 20k added each day for the last 3-4 days or so.
We may be off the exponential growth track!

Some significant fraction of this is New York slowing down.

Posted by Loki Liesmith | Mon Mar 30, 2020, 08:57 PM (10 replies)

If you don't have anything nice to say about Rush Limbaugh

Posted by Loki Liesmith | Mon Feb 3, 2020, 09:14 PM (36 replies)

So who outed Northam: positional analysis


Getting rid of Northam removes a powerful incumbent Democrat.

VA lt. Governor is still a strong replacement. Unclear if race is a factor in VA politics these days. Potentially racist vote can still be exploited though.

Corey Stewart (an alt right adjacent figure) did not have this info to release.

Was released after a damaging series of abortion politics clips. Seems strategically timed. Info may have been in hand for a while.


Seems likely this was released by a center right Republican who wanted far right Corey Stewart to lose but wanted to increase the chances of a centrist Republican recapturing the seat in the future. At worst this move represents status quo for the center right in VA. At best they may now have ad edge. It was an excellent strategic move.

However the best Democratic countermove is still (imo) to broom Northam. It’s a defensive move with significant downside risk but the alternative is almost all downside.

To the strategist who executed this: well played.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Sat Feb 2, 2019, 10:38 AM (10 replies)

I-1631 (Carbon fee initiative) not doing well in WA

That's kind of depressing. I had pinned some small measure of hope on that.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Wed Nov 7, 2018, 01:07 AM (1 replies)

The polls haven't moved for many, many weeks

Far too many people here look at individual polls. Look at the average:

It swings up and down but the trend has been a strong Dem lead for a long time.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Wed May 9, 2018, 05:10 PM (3 replies)

Why do so few users here not understand that single polls don't mean much?

It’s the poll average that matters. Don’t people get that yet?
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Sat May 5, 2018, 10:33 PM (8 replies)

Heads up for a potentially interesting event

Pay attention to @VickerySec on twitter over the next few hours.

It might be nothing. But there are “rumors on the internet.”
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Mon Mar 26, 2018, 11:48 AM (23 replies)

Trump Campaign Laundered 130K thru Trump Org and then to Cohen

Posted by Loki Liesmith | Fri Mar 9, 2018, 02:46 PM (47 replies)
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