ucrdem
ucrdem's JournalWaPo: The polls are inconclusive. Advantage Biden.
Source: The Washington Post
July 17, 2024 at 2:08 p.m. EDT
Biden’s bad month hasn’t led to a dramatic drop in his numbers — or really much of a drop at all. President Biden and his supporters, in their push for him to remain the Democrats’ candidate, have been helped by a surprising source: the polls.
Saturday’s attempted shooting of former president Donald Trump has moved attention away from Biden’s struggles. But even before the shooting, only about two dozen of the 264 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents in Congress had called for the president to step aside, despite serious private doubts in the party about Biden’s ability to win in November. The lack of a groundswell against Biden is in part because the president really wants to run and many in the party aren’t willing to sideline him against his will.
But another reason Biden can’t be dislodged easily is polling. If the president had no path to victory and another Democrat had a clear one, I suspect there would be much more momentum behind the calls for him to leave the race. But neither of those conditions exist. The president is just barely behind Trump in Michigan (3 percentage points) and Pennsylvania (less than 1 point) and effectively tied in Wisconsin, according to polling averages from The Post. (Other news organizations have slightly different averages, but they generally show very tight margins in those three states.)
Biden’s dismal debate performance and the intense criticism it drew from the media and even other Democrats didn’t result in a dramatic drop in his numbers — or really much of a drop at all. Biden was getting around 41 percent of the national popular vote (including third-party candidates) before the June 27 debate and is at 40 percent now, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/17/inconclusive-polls-help-biden/
Michigan (3 percentage points) and Pennsylvania (less than 1 point) and effectively tied in Wisconsin."
I guess they ran out of lies?
WaPo: The polls are inconclusive. Advantage Biden.
Biden’s bad month hasn’t led to a dramatic drop in his numbers — or really much of a drop at all.
President Biden and his supporters, in their push for him to remain the Democrats’ candidate, have been helped by a surprising source: the polls.
(snip)
But another reason Biden can’t be dislodged easily is polling. If the president had no path to victory and another Democrat had a clear one, I suspect there would be much more momentum behind the calls for him to leave the race. But neither of those conditions exist. The president is just barely behind Trump in Michigan (3 percentage points) and Pennsylvania (less than 1 point) and effectively tied in Wisconsin, according to polling averages from The Post. (Other news organizations have slightly different averages, but they generally show very tight margins in those three states.)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/17/inconclusive-polls-help-biden/
So it seems the step-down chorus is not motivated by polling. What are they motivated by?
Donald Trump's Chances of Winning Election Are Declining
Source: Newsweek
Updated Jul 17, 2024 at 3:17 PM EDT
Donald Trump's chances of winning the November 2024 presidential election are declining, according to a new aggregation of polls.
FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker, which was originally published on July 8 and updated on July 16, shows Joe Biden with a 53 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 46 percent chance.
According to the tracker, Biden is favored to win in 534 out of 1,000 of FiveThirtyEight's simulations of how the election could go, while Trump wins in 462. The poll also shows that the simulations indicate that Biden is on track for a three-point win.
(snip)
It comes after a Presidential Voting Intention poll of 3,601 swing state voters by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, found that Trump's margins over President Joe Biden have narrowed since June in two key swing states: Florida and North Carolina.
Read more: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-polling-data-five-thirty-eight-1926226
"simulations indicate that Biden is on track for a three-point win."
Newsweek, today: Trump's Chances of Winning Election Are Declining
This is a report on 538's latest aggregation, Updated Jul 17, 2024 at 3:17 PM EDT:
Donald Trump's chances of winning the November 2024 presidential election are declining, according to a new aggregation of polls.
FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker, which was originally published on July 8 and updated on July 16, shows Joe Biden with a 53 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 46 percent chance.
(snip)
Trump's margins over President Joe Biden have narrowed since June in two key swing states: Florida and North Carolina.
Trump previously defeated Biden in both states in 2020, while he held a six-point lead over Biden in Florida in a Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll from that June.
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-polling-data-five-thirty-eight-1926226
Trump gets no boost from shooting, loses ground to Biden per Morning Consult
"Donald Trump Does Not Get Post-Shooting Poll Boost," Newsweek, Published Jul 16, 2024Donald Trump has not received a poll boost in the first presidential election survey conducted since the failed assassination attempt on Saturday.
The poll, conducted by Morning Consult of 2,045 registered voters on Monday, reveals that Trump is leading Joe Biden by just one percentage point with 46 percent, compared to the president's 45 percent. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.
The findings also reveal that Trump's lead has narrowed slightly since the firm's previous survey, conducted between July 12 and 14, which put Trump two percentage points ahead with 44 percent to Biden's 42 percent.
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-no-poll-boost-after-assassination-attempt-us-election-1925680
Oh nos, he's melting !!!
Joe is rising steadily, and passed Trump nationally June 18.
per Marist. NBC polling shows Biden winning by 3 points in a 3-way race, unchanged for months. A recent US News poll of 34-and-under voters in 6 swing states plus Ohio shows Biden leading by 18% in a 2-way, 10% in a 3-way.
Why aren't CNN/NYT/MSNBC talking about these polls? Because they're not reporting the news, they're trying to make the news, and they're failing. They disrupt poorly. 
..........
links: Marist:
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/contest-for-president-still-up-for-grabs/
NBC:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-debate-aftermath-damages-biden-democratic-party-matchup-trump-unc-rcna161154
USNews:
https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-07-11/poll-rfk-jr-bests-trump-but-biden-suffers-more-in-a-wider-race
Updated to include links.
Trump-owned firm selling sneakers with image of his bloodied face
Source: Chicago Sun-Times
Trump-owned firm selling sneakers with image of his bloodied face
A company is now selling $299 sneakers showing an image of Donald Trump with streaks of blood on his cheek and pumping his fist in the air after he was the target of an assassination attempt in Pennsylvania.
The white high tops are being sold as “FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT High-Tops” for $299 on a website that sells Trump-branded shoes that is run by CIC Ventures LLC, a company Trump reported owning in his 2023 financial disclosure. The company says the new shoes are limited edition with only 5,000 pairs available and estimated to ship in September or October. It also said 10 pairs will be randomly autographed.
“These limited edition high-tops, featuring Trump’s iconic image with his fist raised, honor his unwavering determination and bravery,” it says. “With only 5,000 pairs available, each one is a true collector’s item. Show your support and patriotic pride with these exclusive sneakers, capturing a defining moment in history.”
CIC Ventures is the same company that debuted “Never Surrender High-Tops,” shiny gold sneakers with an American flag detail on the back, for $399.
Read more: https://chicago.suntimes.com/politics/rnc-2024/2024/07/16/rnc-republican-convention-milwaukee-corey-brooks-trump-vance-democrats-biden-wisconsin
Tacky.
Progressives try to send a message of resistance through the RNC security barrier
Source: NPR
JULY 16, 20245:00 AM ET
MILWAUKEE — While Republican delegates gathered on the floor of the Fiserv Forum on Monday for the first day of the RNC, progressive activists were assembling outside. With handmade signs decrying the “racist and reactionary Republican agenda,” demonstrators took to the streets to try and shout their message across the U.S. Secret Service blockades and fences surrounding the official RNC venues.
“It’s hot, but I’m glad we’re here,” says Lisa Taylor, who marched along with other members of the Progressive Labor Party.
Organizers predicted more than 5,000 people from around the U.S. would participate in the show of solidarity against Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee. The crowd that turned out for the march in hot and muggy downtown Milwaukee ended up much smaller than that, although a vast range of causes and issues were represented.
“Trump is what we get for our lack of participation,” worried Nadine Seiler, who traveled from Waldorf, Md., to stand under the hot sun with a colorful homemade banner and bright-blue eyeliner.
Read more: https://www.npr.org/2024/07/16/nx-s1-5040899/rnc-progressive-protesters-milwaukee-trump-presidential-election
Protesters with March on the RNC gather for a demonstration during the first day of the 2024 Republican National Convention in Milwaukee on Monday.
Nadine Seiler wears a "Stop Project 2025" shirt during the rally for March on RNC during the first day of the 2024 Republican National Convention in Milwaukee on Monday.
I never make plans that far ahead...
But realistically, I expect the Biden effect to kick in full force in November, barring the unforeseen, which is not such a tall order. Biden avoiding getting Covid, and has avoided getting shot, probably in large measure because he's careful. Yes, he's had a few close shaves. But really all he needs to do better is take care of his health, get enough rest, and modulate his voice so he doesn't get hoarse, and I am fully certain (99%) that he'll squeak right back in.
New NBC poll shows Biden leading by 3 points in a three-way race:
July 14, 2024, 6:00 AM PDT, By Mark Murray
A new national NBC News poll — conducted after President Joe Biden’s bad debate performance and before a gunman fired at former President Donald Trump and rallygoers in Pennsylvania on Saturday — found the presidential contest remaining stable and competitive, with Biden trailing former President Donald Trump by 2 points in the survey.
The result was well within the poll’s margin of error and had the same margin as April’s survey. In an expanded ballot including third-party candidates, Biden led by 3 points — again, nearly unchanged from April.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-debate-aftermath-damages-biden-democratic-party-matchup-trump-unc-rcna161154
That's not quite how the headline, subheads, and teasers put it, for example the title:
Poll: Debate aftermath damages Biden and Democratic Party — but matchup with Trump is unchanged
But that's what poll and eventually the article say.
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